The vast majority of people Invest incorrectly – they only get away with it because the markets NATURAL movement is continual GROWTH.
This makes poor Investors think that they are good, it makes brokers look like they know what they’re doing and how the markets work – through in a decent bear market or decent market correction and they are quickly exposed as their funds/clients funds start reducing in value.
There is a right way to Invest though and it goes against EVERY piece of Investment advice out there – If you can TIME the market you will beat the masses big time
funds won’t tell you as they’re not allowed to do this, brokers won’t tell because they don’t know and that all leaves you to the moves of the markets.
Look at these charts that follow and tell me it’s not common sense or best to get in at the KEY turning points – ALL the key turns that follow were the RESULT of a key Time Cycle(s) – I have seen this too many times for it to be coincidental, too many times
To ENHANCE returns you can now buy 2 x ETF’s of an Index!
The NEXT cycle is UP – the general market action after 17 years WILL be very similar to that of 1982-2000 – not exactly but similar in form and it will rise on average at a faster rate than 2000-2017 rates.
The time to BE a buy and hold investor is fast approaching – compound up 50% growth annually over 17 years and you’ll see the power of buying and holding during the RIGHT and CORRECT market conditions
Good Luck
The HOVIS Trader 
simo.phillips@gmail.com
/ October 31, 2015Hi do you see daily rebalancing of a leveraged etf as a problem on using it for buy and hold over the long term? For example if the fund spends four days of a week going down by 1% then goes up 4% the fund will still be a negative return as opposed to break even on the index
Cheers Simon
The HOVIS Trader
/ November 4, 2015Yes it could be a problem and it will eat away some profits – this will also happen in a sideways to flat market – the assumption is catch the bull market and as with most Investing vehicles it should come good.
As with all Investing its a matter of timing – when you get in.
My assumptions are that the next Inflationary cycle of 17 years will return between 1000-1400% overall (not compound) Short term rebalancing should not be a problem.
I must admit that it’s a year until I start getting serious again and in that time ETF’s may change their inner workings which makes using a leveraged ETF void – I doubt it but you never know for certain – a simple buy signal from the lows should prove a profitable entry point.
If leveraged ETFs aren’t your thing, just use a simple tracker ETF of the market which is an option.
Your question though throws open the effect ALL charges, costs mistakes etc have on an account – If you take an account down 50% it takes a gain of 100% to get back to B/E .
Look back on a chart of the S&P500 – I’ve posted many on the market predictions page – It’s all a matter of timing, when you take the punt, look at 1982/83 as an entry point overall it would have worked, but there would be periods when it sideways to down and the portfolio would have taken a hit, not detrimental but sufficient, but the important factor is that it always recovered and then some – the only time I’d take a position in a leveraged ETF during a down cycle would be at the anticipated lows of 2002, 2009.
I know its very very hard to picture a bullish market when for the past 15 years it’s been a rough ride.
Simon Phillips
/ February 25, 2016Makes Sense! I have been thinking about using even an 3times ETF – with entry and exit with a basic simple 30 week moving average. It appears this would exit you in the shorter term down trend and then reenter for the majority of the bullish period expected over the next cycle.
Even putting the money into an inverse etf when the 30week moving average trends down.
Any Pitfalls you can think of it would indeed be extremely profitable if you could get the timing mostly right.
Cheers
Simon
The HOVIS Trader
/ February 25, 2016I’ve not looked at what leveraged ETF’s I have available for over a year – yes a 3 x leveraged will be used if there’s one available or greater.
Moving averages I don’t like them – after testing them manually over many periods came to the conclusion they don’t add much as you’re in and out too late and end up missing profits and giving too much back – that’s why I try to get in as close to the reversals as possible as even if the move fails you don’t lose a lot.
The next cycle is def UP – that does not means it’ll just go straight up and keep going, it will at some point filter out and rest for a period of time and then continue – in what order and how it will do that is not known.
Once a bottom is in around DEC 2016 I’ll be able to calculate the cycles within and highlight the ones to really keep an out for as there’ll also be mini turning points in the larger cycle – the premise is with these cycles is if the markets strongly falls into a cycle date the expectation is that the market will turn on its heels and move to the upside