Update – TED stock

I think it’s really important to show you FAILED trades too.

If you remember based on the DTosc positions a rally was signalled – this happened but it was tiny.

This is why it’s not SAFE to just trade off basic things such as Indicators – they don’t always work out – now what you’ll have to do if this chart is of interest to you is to follow it on as it progresses.

The WEEKLY DTosc is in the bear OS zone and price will rally to some degree, which will be confirmed by the bullish reversals of the Daily DTosc – the real KEY in all of this is to not only have the Multiple Time Frame Indicator positions in unison but ALSO Pattern, price and time all in a healthy zone for reversal.

As mentioned in the previous blog post on TED – the weekly chart indicates an Elliott Wave pattern, whether that turns out to be correct we are months away from – but the pattern is BEARISH, HOWEVER,

Depending upon how you “see and look” at the Weekly chart you could also label that bullish too (not from an EWP point of view) – one thing is for absolute certain – one side will win – EVENTUALLY.

The point I’m trying to make here is DON’T get hooked on a particular outlook – once you do that you will be dragged down the path into a dangerous breeding ground of having to have the correct and right outlook on what the market will do – you do NOT have the power to do that!

As can be seen – My outlook based on the Indicator was WRONG – you’ll probably find that it’s now in the position I had hoped it was in previous for a decent rally, but its not guaranteed.

I wrote this post on Tuesday 4th April 2017 – but have scheduled it for publication Sunday 9th April 2017.

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The ONLY thing missing from this market cycle

PRICE DEFLATION

 

Months of price DEflation are the only thing missing from this 17 year market Time Cycle.

I’d fully expect at some point before December 2016 for a bout of pro-longed Price DEflation to occur and possible take us into the next UP market Time Cycle.

Once you understand the Inflationary and Deflationary cycles you can then work out what economic components go inside them.

Many commodity markets are depressed – these are typically what feeds through into the general economy by way of forcing price of items up or down.

Those commodities have Time Cycles of there own – I’ve not looked at them as I’m not interested in those markets, but I’d bet that they’ve topped out and are sinking in price and bottoming around the same time as the stock market market time cycle is drawing to an end = recipe for price Deflation

If this is of Interest to you then I would encourage you to look at the period 1982-2000 the USA markets/economy are fine and look to see what the stock markets did / price Inflation / Credit Inflation / employment / Interest Rates / QE (there was none) / etc etc

Were the stock market crashes pro-longed or quickly recovered?

1987 was a key Time Cycle date – it was the 5 year growth time cycle (1982-1987) that occurs during all 17 yr cycles, the fall was a major event, but it was quickly recovered because the overall 17 yr market cycle was UP.

Capture

There is an Illusion that governments like you to think happens – that they can control the economy, they can’t – it’s the fact that the market Time Cycle in force dictates economic activity, the Illusion comes with the UP periods exceeding the DOWN periods as even during a 17 yr Down period you still have periods of 5 years of bullish markets.

If a government and it’s Central Bank could control an economy then they would ALWAYS achieve the perfect “Goldilocks” economic factors that would keep an economy in perfect harmony with no stock market panics – it simply cannot be done, never, ever.

Japan is a prime example – or are we to believe that the Japanese are an inferior race who are stupid and those trying to run the economy are either stupid or incompetent?  Of course not, they are intelligent people , trying everything to stimulate the economy and get the stock market firing again – It’s the Deflationary Depression they are in that is making them look silly.

The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
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Market Higher for December 2015?

Every man and his dog is looking for some sort of mega crash.

Will it happen?

I don’t think so, a few key tells for me occurred on Friday last week

Capture

Take the Nasdaq 100 Index above – doesn’t really matter which Index you refer to.

My DAILY 5 period Moving Average of the StochRSI (8) signals a high – this indicator is often wrong on highs!

My WEEKLY 5 period Moving Average of the StochRSI (8) signals a flat or down period (Chart NOT shown)

*Edit – IF the market is on a real downer as signalled by the StochRSI Indicator then this is classed as a BEARISH reversal [the position of the Weekly and Daily Indicator positions] PRICE should hammer downwards – if it doesn’t then that signals the StochRSI is wrong

However,

Capture1

Total Put/Call Ratios have been +1 for a number of days

Equity Only Put/Call Ratio has just exceeded 0.75

These readings often signal a period of bullishness in the days/weeks after

Capture2

Sentiment readings are “NORMAL”

We’ve entered into the seasonally bullish period of Thanksgiving to the first few days of January

Most importantly PRICE ACTION has been going UP as can be seen from the chart above.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if we see some form of little pull back and then a continuation of Bullish prices – when the bears are banging and buy tonnes of puts they’re often proved wrong.

Time Cycles – 18th August plunged the market right on cue, The Time cycle expected October could of already printed its name on the August low! Which would sit comfortable on a Bullish December 2015.

Obviously this is all best guessing – let the market tell you it’s movements

How to DOUBLE your return with half the risk

This post is for the Investors amongst you rather than the traders, although it is something that you should ALL be aware of regardless of your stance.

If you have or plan to obtain a Stock Market Almanac – this strategy is in there and has been for a number of years!

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When will Bank Base Rate Rise?

I continually hear people from all over the place talking about Bank Base Rates.

You know they type of conversations “When do you think it will rise?”, “It’s been low for so long, don’t they [the bank] know what damage its doing to my income”…..etc

Well of course they are correct, low rates affect many people differently and they have been going on since 2008 now which is a long time.

Or is it?

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“Interest Rates Drive Stocks”? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth

These 4 charts show why you should be careful with this common investment “wisdom”

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter’s monthly Elliott Wave Theorist once published a ten-part study explaining why traditional financial models failed to foresee the 2007-2009 financial crisis — and, more importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again).

On Thursday (Sept. 17), the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. On Friday, stocks opened down big. But before you join those who blame it on the Fed, please read this excerpt from Prechter’s eye-opening study.

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Economic theory holds that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. The higher the income that investors can get from safe bonds, the less attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks; conversely, the less income that investors can get from safe bonds, the more attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks. A statement of this construction appears to be sensible.

And it would be, if it were made in the field of economics. For example, “Rising prices for beef make chicken a more attractive purchase.” This statement is simple and true. But in the field of finance such statements fly directly in the face of the evidence.

Figure 3 shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. They display routs of 54% to 89%.

Figure 3:

In all these cases, interest rates fell, and in two of those cases they went all the way to zero! In those cases, investors should have traded all their bonds for stocks. But they didn’t; instead, they sold stocks and bought bonds. What is it about the value of dividends that investors fail to understand? Don’t they get it?

As in most arguments from exogenous cause…one can argue just as effectively the opposite side of the claim. It is just as easy to sound rational and objective when saying this:

“When an economy implodes, corporate values fall, depressing the stock market. At the same time, demand for loans falls, depressing interest rates. In other words, when the economy contracts, both of these trends move down together. Conversely, when the economy expands, both of these trends move up together. This thesis explains why interest rates and stock prices go in the same direction.”

See? Just as rational and sensible. On this basis, suddenly the examples in Figure 3 are explained. And so are the examples in Figure 4. Right?

Figure 4:

No, they’re not, because, as the first version of the claim would have it, there in fact have been plenty of times when the stock prices rose and interest rates fell. This was true, for example, from 1984 to 1987, when stock prices more than doubled. And there have been plenty of times when stock prices fell and interest rates rose, as in 1973-1974 when stock prices were cut nearly in half. Figures 5 and 6 show examples.

Figure 5:

Figure 6:

At this point, conventional theorists might try formulating a complex web of interrelationships to explain these changing, contradictory correlations. But I have yet to read that any such approach has given any economist an edge in forecasting interest rates, stock prices or the relationship between them.


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “Interest Rates Drive Stocks”? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

How to Invest Properly – the ONLY way

The vast majority of people Invest incorrectly – they only get away with it because the markets NATURAL movement is continual GROWTH.

This makes poor Investors think that they are good, it makes brokers look like they know what they’re doing and how the markets work – through in a decent bear market or decent market correction and they are quickly exposed as their funds/clients funds start reducing in value.

There is a right way to Invest though and it goes against EVERY piece of Investment advice out there – If you can TIME the market you will beat the masses big time

funds won’t tell you as they’re not allowed to do this, brokers won’t tell because they don’t know and that all leaves you to the moves of the markets.

Look at these charts that follow and tell me it’s not common sense or best to get in at the KEY turning points – ALL the key turns that follow were the RESULT of a key Time Cycle(s) – I have seen this too many times for it to be coincidental, too many times

1982-2000

2000-2017

1982-2017

To ENHANCE returns you can now buy 2 x ETF’s of an Index!

The NEXT cycle is UP – the general market action after 17 years WILL be very similar to that of 1982-2000 – not exactly but similar in form and it will rise on average at a faster rate than 2000-2017 rates.

The time to BE a buy and hold investor is fast approaching – compound up 50% growth annually over 17 years and you’ll see the power of buying and holding during the RIGHT and CORRECT market conditions

Good Luck

You were Warned

I did warn you of 18th August 2015 as being a key cycle date- 3 months agooooooooo

look back over previous blog posts – NOT the site – Blog posts and you will SEE

So lets recap – May 2013 Time Cycle bang on to the DAY and August 18th 2015 Time Cycle – Bang on to the DAY

Funny how this pie in the sky time cycle stuff seems to be so accurate!

Next cycle date is 6th December 2016 which turns this sorry affair UP UP UP

so as the rest of the world is likely to be wallowing in bear market pity, I will be getting ready to go full on in the market and long long long

Next Time Cycles

Hello, Here’s the next sequence of charts – these charts show the sequences within the larger cycles. For those who have not linked this or have not read W.D. Gann’s work – Gann said in the early 1900’s that he traded according to the “Law of Vibration” and that the wireless radio would not work without the Law of Vibration – put very very simply – the markets work in cycles, some of those cycles are large and others smaller, the cycles that drive the markets ALL work in harmony with each other – where people go wrong is that they try to force their logical perception of cycles into one another and it does not work, what you have to do is work out the larger cycles, then the lower cycles and work out the bits of the cycles that don’t fit in harmony AND I know exactly what YOU want ( A cycle that shows a High, then a Low, then a High and then a Low etc etc – that rarely happens) they do exist but you have to be open in your interpretation  – remember the markets are playing to their own tune and it’s our job to figure out not only the overall tune, but the tune being played right now and I’m afraid also the notes and how they’re ALL harmonically connected – this is the very very very hard part. I’d of never of been able to do this myself – I learnt all this from my recommended Gann course provider – not in person but from their course materials – and if I can do it anyone can. I need to refer back to the previous cycle posts at this point – from now on what you are about to see are cycles that occasionally sync with the previous cycles shown – in the big picture it ALL sync and fit, but in the smaller picture only occasionally – so in essence we are from NOW on looking at different cycles to those previously mentioned – but because of the limitations of my charting software I have to re-use some of the coloured lines – I’ll make sure each cycle is colour coded too – a thick line = an important junction, thin lines = less important junctions of the cycle. These are the cycles that drive the stock market – S&P500, Dow, Nasdaq etc This is the 21 year cycle (BLACK LINES), it is also harmonically linked to a 7 year cycle (BLUE lines) – I know this does not look much but in the larger time frame it is very very Important 21 and 7 yr cycles

This next chart looks at another Important chart, this is GANN’s 45 year cycle, broken up into “bits or sections” 1

Now a closer look at this cycle – cycle start date is the LOW of the 1987 Crash – the 1st chart yeah ok some hits, the 2nd chart down! Proves it without doubt – and the 3rd chart below again some good hits! 2 3 4

Look at how many accurate hits it has!  For this cycle it does not have to be EXACT – it has to be allowed leeway either side. STILL THINK THE MARKETS ARE RANDOM?????? – This cycle [above] proves they’re are NOT [random] – just too many “hits” at precise turning points – coincidence? NOPE, this cycle “Hits” with pinpoint accuracy as far back as you care to look – 1900-1932?  Yep, DEAD on hits with major turning points on more than 10 occasions!!!!! Notice the next occurrence of this cycle = 6th December 2016, if you look back at previous posts you’ll see that the 18 years cycle ENDS 7th December 2016!  These are 2 DIFFERENT cycles both arriving within a day of each other – THINK – these cycles are years in length and yet arrive within days! Be sure to watch the market action very closely those days! and REMEMBER the NEXT cycle is UP and Inflationary!

There are more cycles of a smaller scale that need to be inserted (next few blog posts) these explain the other movements and narrow down the cycles to be seen on a daily chart – these are now likely to be posted sometime September as I’m not planning on posting over the summer.

Whatever you do, do NOT look for these cycles to time every major high or low – one cycle on its own will not do that, it’s a COMBINATION of multiple cycles all working in conjunction with one another that do that – this means you HAVE no choice but to look at (and work out) numerous multiple cycles – most traders can’t be bothered with the faff of doing that!