4 Year – Next repeat?

This cycle nearly always arrives in OCTOBER.

The next hit is October 2018

I did mention this when it last hit in October 2014 – some 4 years aggggooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

With the exception of 1994 & 2002 – just look at how this cycle has arrived and the markets bounced many %

4yr cycle

the 2 years in question – 1994 & 2002 – were not void they just took a few more months to get going – they still eventually worked.

Lets PRETEND that 1994 and 2002 failed – so out of 9 trade potentials since 1982, 2 failed = 78% win rate – which is pretty damn good (In fact when you take this cycle back centuries the win rate is 90+%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make a note of it in your diaries – look back in 2019 to what happened in 2018 and specifically around October time.

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Wedger Example – DOW

Here’s another Wedger example – this time in the Dow last week

Good return so far – barring a gap down over stop

wedger

The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
(more…)

More on the Market

Capture

Ok we’re looking at the chart ABOVE this text – Mid Cycle CRASH/PANIC, followed by market finding a level Circa 50% of the high! Then when the next UP Time Cycle starts – COMPARE ALL the charts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Capture1

(more…)

Buy signal

Capture

Relief rally of something more?

Who knows, a buy signal was given – it didn’t meet the requirements exactly but it was very very close, lets see how (if) far it jumps – might be a few decent % gains in it

The market HAS, HAS to be positive at the end of today’s trading, if not the Buy signal was false

Lets see what happens in the days/weeks that follow.

 

 

Exactly 12 Months and counting

Countdown:

12 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

How to DOUBLE your return with half the risk

This post is for the Investors amongst you rather than the traders, although it is something that you should ALL be aware of regardless of your stance.

If you have or plan to obtain a Stock Market Almanac – this strategy is in there and has been for a number of years!

(more…)

When will Bank Base Rate Rise?

I continually hear people from all over the place talking about Bank Base Rates.

You know they type of conversations “When do you think it will rise?”, “It’s been low for so long, don’t they [the bank] know what damage its doing to my income”…..etc

Well of course they are correct, low rates affect many people differently and they have been going on since 2008 now which is a long time.

Or is it?

(more…)

“Interest Rates Drive Stocks”? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth

These 4 charts show why you should be careful with this common investment “wisdom”

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter’s monthly Elliott Wave Theorist once published a ten-part study explaining why traditional financial models failed to foresee the 2007-2009 financial crisis — and, more importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again).

On Thursday (Sept. 17), the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. On Friday, stocks opened down big. But before you join those who blame it on the Fed, please read this excerpt from Prechter’s eye-opening study.

***************

Economic theory holds that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. The higher the income that investors can get from safe bonds, the less attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks; conversely, the less income that investors can get from safe bonds, the more attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks. A statement of this construction appears to be sensible.

And it would be, if it were made in the field of economics. For example, “Rising prices for beef make chicken a more attractive purchase.” This statement is simple and true. But in the field of finance such statements fly directly in the face of the evidence.

Figure 3 shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. They display routs of 54% to 89%.

Figure 3:

In all these cases, interest rates fell, and in two of those cases they went all the way to zero! In those cases, investors should have traded all their bonds for stocks. But they didn’t; instead, they sold stocks and bought bonds. What is it about the value of dividends that investors fail to understand? Don’t they get it?

As in most arguments from exogenous cause…one can argue just as effectively the opposite side of the claim. It is just as easy to sound rational and objective when saying this:

“When an economy implodes, corporate values fall, depressing the stock market. At the same time, demand for loans falls, depressing interest rates. In other words, when the economy contracts, both of these trends move down together. Conversely, when the economy expands, both of these trends move up together. This thesis explains why interest rates and stock prices go in the same direction.”

See? Just as rational and sensible. On this basis, suddenly the examples in Figure 3 are explained. And so are the examples in Figure 4. Right?

Figure 4:

No, they’re not, because, as the first version of the claim would have it, there in fact have been plenty of times when the stock prices rose and interest rates fell. This was true, for example, from 1984 to 1987, when stock prices more than doubled. And there have been plenty of times when stock prices fell and interest rates rose, as in 1973-1974 when stock prices were cut nearly in half. Figures 5 and 6 show examples.

Figure 5:

Figure 6:

At this point, conventional theorists might try formulating a complex web of interrelationships to explain these changing, contradictory correlations. But I have yet to read that any such approach has given any economist an edge in forecasting interest rates, stock prices or the relationship between them.


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “Interest Rates Drive Stocks”? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

How to Invest Properly – the ONLY way

The vast majority of people Invest incorrectly – they only get away with it because the markets NATURAL movement is continual GROWTH.

This makes poor Investors think that they are good, it makes brokers look like they know what they’re doing and how the markets work – through in a decent bear market or decent market correction and they are quickly exposed as their funds/clients funds start reducing in value.

There is a right way to Invest though and it goes against EVERY piece of Investment advice out there – If you can TIME the market you will beat the masses big time

funds won’t tell you as they’re not allowed to do this, brokers won’t tell because they don’t know and that all leaves you to the moves of the markets.

Look at these charts that follow and tell me it’s not common sense or best to get in at the KEY turning points – ALL the key turns that follow were the RESULT of a key Time Cycle(s) – I have seen this too many times for it to be coincidental, too many times

1982-2000

2000-2017

1982-2017

To ENHANCE returns you can now buy 2 x ETF’s of an Index!

The NEXT cycle is UP – the general market action after 17 years WILL be very similar to that of 1982-2000 – not exactly but similar in form and it will rise on average at a faster rate than 2000-2017 rates.

The time to BE a buy and hold investor is fast approaching – compound up 50% growth annually over 17 years and you’ll see the power of buying and holding during the RIGHT and CORRECT market conditions

Good Luck