4 Year – Next repeat?

This cycle nearly always arrives in OCTOBER.

The next hit is October 2018

I did mention this when it last hit in October 2014 – some 4 years aggggooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

With the exception of 1994 & 2002 – just look at how this cycle has arrived and the markets bounced many %

4yr cycle

the 2 years in question – 1994 & 2002 – were not void they just took a few more months to get going – they still eventually worked.

Lets PRETEND that 1994 and 2002 failed – so out of 9 trade potentials since 1982, 2 failed = 78% win rate – which is pretty damn good (In fact when you take this cycle back centuries the win rate is 90+%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make a note of it in your diaries – look back in 2019 to what happened in 2018 and specifically around October time.

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Latest Trade

Hi All,

Firstly can I just thank you all for subscribing to my blog.

I know I don’t post that often anymore – I don’t see the point in posting just for the sake of it, so when I post it’s because there’s relevance to the post.

I thought I’d show you a current live trade I have in place

This is actually my THT Springboard trade set-up/method (not available to purchase yet)

This is a UK Stock United Utilities – I bought in around the Green line, the trade is now neutral so barring a gap down the position will break-even

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The message really is you can and it is perfectly feasible to buy the lows/bottoms successfully and profitably.

It’s Impossible to know just how high this will track, It could right now just reverse and I’d be left with a break-even trade, although typically I’d look to exit this position by at least 4 times the amount risked circa 8% of the value of my account at trade inception.

You then REPEAT the method on the next market that set-ups like this so that over the course of the year you might take 10 trades, have 6 winners @ 8%+ and 4 losers @ 2% each – leaving quite a decent % return for the year.

Well WHAT Happened?

For YEARS I had shouted about the relevance of 6/7th December 2016,

I really don’t need to speak anymore of it as the chart below tells you all that you need to know

By the way the chart is of an ETF that tracks the UK’s FTSE100 Index at a 5 X Leveraged rate (yes I do use this trading vehicle):

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80% in a few months ain’t that bad

What made the trade feasible?

  1. A Low was expected for the Time Cycle due on the 6/7th Dec 2016
  2. This Time Cycle had been forecast YEARS in advance and the outlook was ALWAYS to expect it to be a LOW
  3. Other confirming Indicators I look at were also signalling a low

The position was a high probability trade based on numerous confirming factors

Timing – Slightly Advanced

Good Morning,

NOTHING works 100% in the markets – you need a system/method that works and just exploit it, as you’re ALWAYS going to have losing positions/trades.

Here’s a simple timing method I look at, at times (I don’t always use it!)

First let me give you some quick background points as to WHY I refer to it:

  1. Gann was always referring to squaring this and that
  2. Gann’s Square of 9 is basically a glorified Square Root system, built on a 2-Dimensional Square, which when converted to 3-Dimensions becomes a Pyramid structure
  3. If you draw a 360 CIRCLE around the 4 base corners of this structure you then can add in the DEGREES that Gann talks of.
  4. Using these DEGREES you can then locate the 45, 90, 120, 180 degrees of price etc etc

Related image

OKAY, back to the post –

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In the chart ABOVE this is EXACTLY what I did:

  1. Found a high and a low – measured the Time and Price FACTS of this move
  2. Took the high Price (BLUE Lines) and square rooted that PRICE to see if TIME sync with this
  3. Took the low Price (GREEN Liines) and did the same
  4. Took the RANGE (RED Lines) and did the same
  5. Took the Time of the H-L and did the same
  6. Projected them from the High, Low – up to YOU

Now Increase the chart size to LOOK and see how they fitted.

They’re not going to be perfect fits because that’s just too easy – as you can see above sometimes it hits perfectly, sometimes it gets close and other times it just misses – you can’t get in did on 100% it’s impossible

Homework

  • Apply Pythagorean theory – to the range of the High to the Low
  • You’ll need to convert days to hours (8 hours session on the UK market)
  • So the Price range was 1529 * 1529 then ADD
  • the Time bars, that was 148*8 = 1184 * 1184
  • Now square root the result = side of the C value of the Pythagorean Triangle you’ve just created using both Time and Price (1933.82)
  • Now Square Root that value (43.97)
  • Apply 44 Trading days from the low of 2125
  • How close did it come?

Again it’s not perfect but can you see how we’ve applied mathematics to the markets and we’ve now got close to turning points – you can do the SAME for PRICE levels too

Try doing the same to PRICE and SEE just how many times price stopped on a multiple of the square root number of 44 from the low

UPDATE – Here’s the chart for visual

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Advanced Warning – July 2017

Sorry I haven’t had time to do this very well in advance and there’s no charts – just text – It’s been eating away at me for months that I haven’t posted this early, but here’s a quick message:

There are a HOST of cycles hitting in July that you should be aware of – Gann said “Look BACK 60 hours, days, weeks, months, years, degrees to the last Top/Bottom – as well as other varying periods (30,45,90, 120 etc etc etc)

Gann wrote a book called with 45 years on Wall Street in it’s title and “Looking back”

  1. Well If you look back the 45 yr cycle from July 2017 you get 1973 – look what the market did in 1973
  2. Sub-divisions of the cycles land on KEY market turning points – such as 1914, 1973, 1987, 2002, 1899 and 1929!  Yes I did say 1899
  3. There are MORE KEY cycles that are harmonically coinciding in the month of July

It should be a time to be on guard as what is aligning does not happen often and looking back to the past when it DID – it caused many turbulent times in the market.

All the best – If I get chance later in the year I’ll review and display all the cycles on a chart from the 1960’s so that you can see

UPDATE: 24th July 2017

So far so good, bit of disruption on the USA/UK markets – but so far nothing major or significant – a pullback/correction is due this week, have to see the significance of that move

Look Similar?

If you’ve followed my blog over the last few years – you KNOW that the Time Cycle we were all waiting for to arrive in Dec 2016 – actually came 1 month early in November 2016, you can’t be absolute exact of times I’m afraid.

Anyway – You also KNOW that the Time Cycle we were waiting for was an EXACT replica of the 1949 TC (I don’t have data for that period, so can’t show a chart) – what I do have is data for 1982 – the Low of 1982 was ALSO a direct descendant of the current TC.

the chart below shows the Market AFTER the TC arrived at the LOWS

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S&P500 1982 LOW

NOW – LOOK at the chart below – the INITIAL reaction from the Nov 2016 LOW as been VERY VERY similar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Nasdaq100 Nov 2016 LOW

Now Don’t EXPECT the market to move exactly as per 1982 – It won’t, the energy is different, but the overall shape when viewed back from years in the future WILL be fairly similar

In 1982 the market moved 70% in 45 Weeks – You can see that that move was more VERTICAL than the current move

It will be Interesting to see not only what the market moves by in 45 weeks from the low of Nov 2016 but what Price and % figure

Something for your homework bags.

PS – the one thing that I DID say for years before the event was that the Dec 2016 TC should be a LOW ideally and it was

2017 Market Outlook – Gann Style

Gann used to market his annual predictions for a lot of money – essentially all he was doing was looking back 10 and 20 years and projecting market movements for the forecast based on what the market actually did 120 and 240 mths prior.

I was going to do this last year but didn’t have time, so here it is now – half way through the year.

This is a very simple method and real easy to do – I’m not saying it works – What we’ll do is come back to this blog in Jan 2018 and update the “Current” chart to show what the market did and if there’s some correlation

Notice the big plunges that both the 1997 and 2007 market had in the latter stages of the year – also notice the 1997 plunge and subsequent market action up into 1998, Now get a chart of 1987 and see the formation the market made from plunge to end of 1987!

Gann’s market predictions were a little more detailed and specific than this, but not too much

Here’s the CURRENT market action of the FTSE100 Index:

FTSE100 - 2017 - 6 mths

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 2007 (SIDEWAYS):

FTSE100 - 2007

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 1997 (UP:

FTSE100 - 1997

 

Update to “Don’t do this too often” post

As EXPECTED

Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!

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S*** Happens

I also think it’s very important to show you examples of when things don’t work out quite how I wanted them to.

Most of the detail is on the chart below.

ALL my trading rules were in place for this trade on the 15th March 2017 – I nearly skipped the trade but decided to alter my stop position to make it worthwhile (usually my stop would be under the LOW of Monday 13th March, but I deemed the range of risk too much) Hence why I moved it up to the low of the 14th March.

Anyway – I was sat at my computer 8am awaiting the open – my trading account forces me to set an entry level and then a min of 1% range above that entry level – This sucker GAPPED open over that buy order level and the 1% range and it did not retrace to it that day = the trade was voided and cancelled without hesitation – I’ve missed out on profits and wasted part of a day tracking this one – for zilch!

The trade worked but without me on board – This stuff happens you just have to live with it.  Also you will have trades that take you in and then stop you straight back out again too! Part and parcel to trading baby.

The So-Called Experts will tell you risk is the most important factor – it is very important – but you can see I didn’t even enter this trade through absolutely no fault of my own, the Entry is JUST as Important as the stop and therefore RISK.

This is my THT Trampoline trading set-up – yet to be made available as I’m still writing the course!

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Now this one will make you smile but it makes my stomach churn just thinking about it – this happened very very recently and I’m still fuming about it:

  1. I’m transferring my pension fund  – complicated story but to be able to continue to trade it I had to transfer it – that process has taken months!  So I thought I’d be safe taking a trade seen as it had taken ages to process! How wrong was I!
  2. The chart below shows that I entered a position on this stock on the Green line (price and date) my stop was the red line less a couple of pennies
  3. The market went up then back down – on the 27th March 2017 my Pension company decided it would be OK to dis-invest this position from my fund as they were now ready to transfer it to my new pension provider! Why they didn’t transfer it in-species with the position still intact I will never know – fucking idiots! Yes I am complaining so we’ll see what happens
  4. You can see what the share thereafter did – without me on board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  5. It’s actually made about 6R – If risking 2% of account that is a return of 12% – you don’t need too many of them to make a decent return for the year!
  6. I cannot tell you that after years of doing this, just how mad, sick and upset looking at that chart knowing I was on board but someone else took me out of the trade – this one will stick with me for years!  It won’t affect my next trade but I’ll remember it!
  7. you see crap happens to us ALL – Professionals, Newbies and established Investors

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Update – TED stock

I think it’s really important to show you FAILED trades too.

If you remember based on the DTosc positions a rally was signalled – this happened but it was tiny.

This is why it’s not SAFE to just trade off basic things such as Indicators – they don’t always work out – now what you’ll have to do if this chart is of interest to you is to follow it on as it progresses.

The WEEKLY DTosc is in the bear OS zone and price will rally to some degree, which will be confirmed by the bullish reversals of the Daily DTosc – the real KEY in all of this is to not only have the Multiple Time Frame Indicator positions in unison but ALSO Pattern, price and time all in a healthy zone for reversal.

As mentioned in the previous blog post on TED – the weekly chart indicates an Elliott Wave pattern, whether that turns out to be correct we are months away from – but the pattern is BEARISH, HOWEVER,

Depending upon how you “see and look” at the Weekly chart you could also label that bullish too (not from an EWP point of view) – one thing is for absolute certain – one side will win – EVENTUALLY.

The point I’m trying to make here is DON’T get hooked on a particular outlook – once you do that you will be dragged down the path into a dangerous breeding ground of having to have the correct and right outlook on what the market will do – you do NOT have the power to do that!

As can be seen – My outlook based on the Indicator was WRONG – you’ll probably find that it’s now in the position I had hoped it was in previous for a decent rally, but its not guaranteed.

I wrote this post on Tuesday 4th April 2017 – but have scheduled it for publication Sunday 9th April 2017.

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