Timing – Slightly Advanced

Good Morning,

NOTHING works 100% in the markets – you need a system/method that works and just exploit it, as you’re ALWAYS going to have losing positions/trades.

Here’s a simple timing method I look at, at times (I don’t always use it!)

First let me give you some quick background points as to WHY I refer to it:

  1. Gann was always referring to squaring this and that
  2. Gann’s Square of 9 is basically a glorified Square Root system, built on a 2-Dimensional Square, which when converted to 3-Dimensions becomes a Pyramid structure
  3. If you draw a 360 CIRCLE around the 4 base corners of this structure you then can add in the DEGREES that Gann talks of.
  4. Using these DEGREES you can then locate the 45, 90, 120, 180 degrees of price etc etc

Related image

OKAY, back to the post –

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In the chart ABOVE this is EXACTLY what I did:

  1. Found a high and a low – measured the Time and Price FACTS of this move
  2. Took the high Price (BLUE Lines) and square rooted that PRICE to see if TIME sync with this
  3. Took the low Price (GREEN Liines) and did the same
  4. Took the RANGE (RED Lines) and did the same
  5. Took the Time of the H-L and did the same
  6. Projected them from the High, Low – up to YOU

Now Increase the chart size to LOOK and see how they fitted.

They’re not going to be perfect fits because that’s just too easy – as you can see above sometimes it hits perfectly, sometimes it gets close and other times it just misses – you can’t get in did on 100% it’s impossible

Homework

  • Apply Pythagorean theory – to the range of the High to the Low
  • You’ll need to convert days to hours (8 hours session on the UK market)
  • So the Price range was 1529 * 1529 then ADD
  • the Time bars, that was 148*8 = 1184 * 1184
  • Now square root the result = side of the C value of the Pythagorean Triangle you’ve just created using both Time and Price (1933.82)
  • Now Square Root that value (43.97)
  • Apply 44 Trading days from the low of 2125
  • How close did it come?

Again it’s not perfect but can you see how we’ve applied mathematics to the markets and we’ve now got close to turning points – you can do the SAME for PRICE levels too

Try doing the same to PRICE and SEE just how many times price stopped on a multiple of the square root number of 44 from the low

UPDATE – Here’s the chart for visual

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Advanced Warning – July 2017

Sorry I haven’t had time to do this very well in advance and there’s no charts – just text – It’s been eating away at me for months that I haven’t posted this early, but here’s a quick message:

There are a HOST of cycles hitting in July that you should be aware of – Gann said “Look BACK 60 hours, days, weeks, months, years, degrees to the last Top/Bottom – as well as other varying periods (30,45,90, 120 etc etc etc)

Gann wrote a book called with 45 years on Wall Street in it’s title and “Looking back”

  1. Well If you look back the 45 yr cycle from July 2017 you get 1973 – look what the market did in 1973
  2. Sub-divisions of the cycles land on KEY market turning points – such as 1914, 1973, 1987, 2002, 1899 and 1929!  Yes I did say 1899
  3. There are MORE KEY cycles that are harmonically coinciding in the month of July

It should be a time to be on guard as what is aligning does not happen often and looking back to the past when it DID – it caused many turbulent times in the market.

All the best – If I get chance later in the year I’ll review and display all the cycles on a chart from the 1960’s so that you can see

Look Similar?

If you’ve followed my blog over the last few years – you KNOW that the Time Cycle we were all waiting for to arrive in Dec 2016 – actually came 1 month early in November 2016, you can’t be absolute exact of times I’m afraid.

Anyway – You also KNOW that the Time Cycle we were waiting for was an EXACT replica of the 1949 TC (I don’t have data for that period, so can’t show a chart) – what I do have is data for 1982 – the Low of 1982 was ALSO a direct descendant of the current TC.

the chart below shows the Market AFTER the TC arrived at the LOWS

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S&P500 1982 LOW

NOW – LOOK at the chart below – the INITIAL reaction from the Nov 2016 LOW as been VERY VERY similar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Nasdaq100 Nov 2016 LOW

Now Don’t EXPECT the market to move exactly as per 1982 – It won’t, the energy is different, but the overall shape when viewed back from years in the future WILL be fairly similar

In 1982 the market moved 70% in 45 Weeks – You can see that that move was more VERTICAL than the current move

It will be Interesting to see not only what the market moves by in 45 weeks from the low of Nov 2016 but what Price and % figure

Something for your homework bags.

PS – the one thing that I DID say for years before the event was that the Dec 2016 TC should be a LOW ideally and it was

2017 Market Outlook – Gann Style

Gann used to market his annual predictions for a lot of money – essentially all he was doing was looking back 10 and 20 years and projecting market movements for the forecast based on what the market actually did 120 and 240 mths prior.

I was going to do this last year but didn’t have time, so here it is now – half way through the year.

This is a very simple method and real easy to do – I’m not saying it works – What we’ll do is come back to this blog in Jan 2018 and update the “Current” chart to show what the market did and if there’s some correlation

Notice the big plunges that both the 1997 and 2007 market had in the latter stages of the year – also notice the 1997 plunge and subsequent market action up into 1998, Now get a chart of 1987 and see the formation the market made from plunge to end of 1987!

Gann’s market predictions were a little more detailed and specific than this, but not too much

Here’s the CURRENT market action of the FTSE100 Index:

FTSE100 - 2017 - 6 mths

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 2007 (SIDEWAYS):

FTSE100 - 2007

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 1997 (UP:

FTSE100 - 1997

 

Update to “Don’t do this too often” post

As EXPECTED

Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!

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S*** Happens

I also think it’s very important to show you examples of when things don’t work out quite how I wanted them to.

Most of the detail is on the chart below.

ALL my trading rules were in place for this trade on the 15th March 2017 – I nearly skipped the trade but decided to alter my stop position to make it worthwhile (usually my stop would be under the LOW of Monday 13th March, but I deemed the range of risk too much) Hence why I moved it up to the low of the 14th March.

Anyway – I was sat at my computer 8am awaiting the open – my trading account forces me to set an entry level and then a min of 1% range above that entry level – This sucker GAPPED open over that buy order level and the 1% range and it did not retrace to it that day = the trade was voided and cancelled without hesitation – I’ve missed out on profits and wasted part of a day tracking this one – for zilch!

The trade worked but without me on board – This stuff happens you just have to live with it.  Also you will have trades that take you in and then stop you straight back out again too! Part and parcel to trading baby.

The So-Called Experts will tell you risk is the most important factor – it is very important – but you can see I didn’t even enter this trade through absolutely no fault of my own, the Entry is JUST as Important as the stop and therefore RISK.

This is my THT Trampoline trading set-up – yet to be made available as I’m still writing the course!

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Now this one will make you smile but it makes my stomach churn just thinking about it – this happened very very recently and I’m still fuming about it:

  1. I’m transferring my pension fund  – complicated story but to be able to continue to trade it I had to transfer it – that process has taken months!  So I thought I’d be safe taking a trade seen as it had taken ages to process! How wrong was I!
  2. The chart below shows that I entered a position on this stock on the Green line (price and date) my stop was the red line less a couple of pennies
  3. The market went up then back down – on the 27th March 2017 my Pension company decided it would be OK to dis-invest this position from my fund as they were now ready to transfer it to my new pension provider! Why they didn’t transfer it in-species with the position still intact I will never know – fucking idiots! Yes I am complaining so we’ll see what happens
  4. You can see what the share thereafter did – without me on board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  5. It’s actually made about 6R – If risking 2% of account that is a return of 12% – you don’t need too many of them to make a decent return for the year!
  6. I cannot tell you that after years of doing this, just how mad, sick and upset looking at that chart knowing I was on board but someone else took me out of the trade – this one will stick with me for years!  It won’t affect my next trade but I’ll remember it!
  7. you see crap happens to us ALL – Professionals, Newbies and established Investors

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Update – TED stock

I think it’s really important to show you FAILED trades too.

If you remember based on the DTosc positions a rally was signalled – this happened but it was tiny.

This is why it’s not SAFE to just trade off basic things such as Indicators – they don’t always work out – now what you’ll have to do if this chart is of interest to you is to follow it on as it progresses.

The WEEKLY DTosc is in the bear OS zone and price will rally to some degree, which will be confirmed by the bullish reversals of the Daily DTosc – the real KEY in all of this is to not only have the Multiple Time Frame Indicator positions in unison but ALSO Pattern, price and time all in a healthy zone for reversal.

As mentioned in the previous blog post on TED – the weekly chart indicates an Elliott Wave pattern, whether that turns out to be correct we are months away from – but the pattern is BEARISH, HOWEVER,

Depending upon how you “see and look” at the Weekly chart you could also label that bullish too (not from an EWP point of view) – one thing is for absolute certain – one side will win – EVENTUALLY.

The point I’m trying to make here is DON’T get hooked on a particular outlook – once you do that you will be dragged down the path into a dangerous breeding ground of having to have the correct and right outlook on what the market will do – you do NOT have the power to do that!

As can be seen – My outlook based on the Indicator was WRONG – you’ll probably find that it’s now in the position I had hoped it was in previous for a decent rally, but its not guaranteed.

I wrote this post on Tuesday 4th April 2017 – but have scheduled it for publication Sunday 9th April 2017.

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Don’t do this too much

My style of blog is one that makes you think, do a bit of work for yourself – I don’t often give specifics out as people won’t and don’t appreciated them and others will likely just copy if you give too much critical info out for free.

Here’s a chart of the S&P500 from the weekend – I updated it on Monday.

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The S&P500 is in a classic position – at present the odds are well and truly to the UPSIDE, but obviously not guaranteed.

Just for reference the WEEKLY DTosc should bearish OS at the end of this week which coupled with the Daily DTosc Bullish reversal that will be due soon – is the PERFECT position for the bullish outlook.

Obviously that outlook completely changes if the market fails to comply with that level of thinking and the low of C is taken out

Can you SEE just how EASY it is to trade from 2 Indicators! along with a very basic pattern seen often in the markets for

  1. I can predict the preferred likely outcome in advance – not guaranteed but most likely
  2. I then have targets to see if the trade makes financial sense taking
  3. I KNOW point C could be a deal breaker
  4. All in advance

Why (and How) I use Swing files

It’s ALL dead simple AND most Importantly COMMON SENSE – keep your trading as simple as possible!

  1. They give me a visual picture on the swings (as I determine them) of the marketplace
  2. They give me in an instant the direction of the smaller swing file AND the larger swing file  – this allows me to instantly work out whether a market is MIXED, BULLISH or BEARISH Instantly
  3. It allows me to SEE virtually Instantly whether a market is setting up one of my trading set-ups/methods
  4. It allows me to calculate Time and Price expectations based on PRIOR swings
  5. It allows me to SEE with a few clicks of the mouse the ENTIRE STATISTICS of the market I’m looking at
  6. I can match up TIMES of High to High, Low to Low, Low to High and High to Low to see quickly if there’s a tight range of TIME
  7. I can quickly and easily SEE Gann’s market formations (If any are forming!)
  8. I can quickly and easily see if there’s a pattern of rising lows or lower highs
  9. I trade lows and bottoms – It allows me to identify these quickly with the aid of an Indicator too

Lets see the Swing Files in action – Remember to get the info on the charts took me less than  30 seconds:

Instantly tell if a market is in a trading range or bullish/bearish

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It also Instantly shows you a “visual” gauge of the ACTUAL swings the market has made over X days/weeks/months/years

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I can calculate TIME from the swings in a number of ways:

Shown are the Dynamic Time Projection AND The TIME Rhythm Zone – both calculated in about 5 seconds from the swings shown on the chart – If the markets following similar time calcs as it did on prior swings then this info is invaluable.

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I can also do similar for PRICE

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I can look at the stats of the swings and work out the following:

Is there a particular day of the week the stock/market moves significantly up or down?

I can also see month stats too (no chart shown)

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I can also in seconds work out the % swings of the market for min / Average & Max swings

As you can see this markets average typical BULLISH swing was 5.4% and the DECLINES during a bullish UP phase maxed out at 6.3%

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However, during the BEARISH down phases the up phases averaged 2.8% whilst the down phases were 5.1%

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The Bright BLUE line = the MAIN UP or DOWN Trend as determined by the setting of the swing file – in this case it’s an automatic setting – but you could set it as say a 10% swing file – this means EVERY time the market moves up or down by 10% the line will follow

the Green UP and red DOWN lines are a short-term swing file again in this case automatic but it could be say a 4% swing file – which obviously would change every 4% move of the market.

The bright Blue governs the stats as to whether the market is considered bullish or bearish – so for example if the bright blue swing file line is pointing UP/BULLISH then  every GREEN UP/Bullish short-term swing file confirmation could be bought.

Obviously though – If you have a 4% swing file on and you buy then you’ve missed 4% of the move and if as in the instances of the charts above the average for that market is 5.4% then there’s not much left to profit from!

Here’s something you could consider – Shift the short-term swing file to the become the Intermediate swing file and create a bigger Intermediate swing file.

This then “removes” the short-term noise from the picture and gives more bang for your buck – Obviously it would help if you had some form of pattern recognition to identify trades

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So you can see and PROVE it – to yourself what the typical swings of the market have been in the past and roughly what they should be in the future – If you’re in a Bullish up phase on the higher % swing file and the markets pulled back in a decline on the smaller swing file and various other indications are suggesting a low is forming then the opportunity to establish long positions upon confirmation can be seriously considered and you could even calculate the potential up swing min/average/max including TIME when it might potentially end – ALL INADVANCE!!!!!!!!!!

This could also be used in conjunction with other timing methods you may use and pattern recognition such as Elliott Wave, Gann or whatever you prefer to use.

You could also add automatic dates and info to the swing highs/lows or both to see if there’s a typical cycle of TD’s or CD’s from low to low etc -which could be used to narrow timing down etc.

The bottom line is you have all the facts of what the market has previously DONE – those facts don’t not predict the future, but they do give you a pretty good indication of what “MIGHT” happen

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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks, ETF’s, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

S&P500 UPDATE

Original post here: https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/sp500-review-friday-10th-march-2017/

Absolutely SPOT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Once again I’m proving to you that it is very possible to predict price and time simply

Yes we can use cycles and fancy advanced methods – but to start off with we can use the price and time basics of previous swings, throw in a decent accurate Indicator and you then have a potential high probability set of items that can be used to profit from the markets

By the way the HIGH was confirmed yesterday when price CLOSED below the previous swing low.

So what we now have on our hands is either:

  1. Prices are going to crash
  2. Prices might have a major, Intermediate or minor correction and then resume upwards to new highs

Unless you know EXACTLY where we are in the market (and nobody does) then you just have to WAIT.

I don’t know what it is but the past month a number of Elliott Wavers have come into contact with me – they gave up counting waves a few weeks ago as it became unclear what wave number the market was in! You can’t just give up naming waves! If you know the market is moving in Elliott Waves then you should have wave count – the fact that, that got blown out of the window tells you everything you need to know about how accurate EWT really is!

Gut Reaction?

Well my gut reaction is that this is just a temporary minor or Intermediate level correction the onus is still BULLISH so you have to expect new highs until a bear market is seen – It could just track sideways to!

It really is this simple! There’s no need to over complicate things