Recent market activity – out of the blue?

Yeah right – This is the SP500 Index from the USA

Looks to me that it’s just the 4 year cycle arriving – as you can see from the chart below it often arrives, sometimes not, nothing in the markets is 100% certain

Also you will find mention of this EXACT month and year following the last time the cycle hit in October 2014 – just for those doubters out there, who say ” Yeah you tell us this AFTER the fact”

The 4 year cycle creates a LOW point of some degree, in the month of OCTOBER every 4 years following the last – with 85% accuracy

The NEXT one to watch is October in 2022

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FTSE100 Recent activity

If you’ve been an avid reader of my “How to make money from the markets” recent blog posts, then you’ll have read about the THT Cornerstone or simply the 1,2 & 3 set-up.

This pattern is VERY reliable and even more so when you see it at major lows – however it crops up in a lot of places.

This is a live chart of the FTSE100 Index of the UK’s major market and is up to date

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Again if you look at the WEEKLY chart – the DTosc Indicator is bullish, you’d of been on ultra high alert watching the daily chart last week for a daily DTosc bullish reversal!

Expectation? – If the market is genuinely in the THT Cornerstone set-up then 50% as a minimum of the waterfall plunge range – this should be confirmed if the high between #2 & #3 is taken out and closed above

It really is as simple as that

Any Gann fan’s out there will notice that the pattern is also a Gann Triple Bottom

HOW CAN THIS COWBOY BE USING METHODS FROM OVER 100 YEARS AGO TO BEAT THE MARKET IN TODAY’S HIGH ALGO AND HFT MARKETS?

Answer is – Markets behave the SAME regardless of what crap is flouted out there – focus on set-ups that actually WORK, then drill down to very sound risk and money management rules and you will succeed in this game – regardless of what is spouted out there in “Trader World” (the last time I looked was back in 2012) is mostly made up as it’s an unregulated market, very very very few people who trade make consistent annual profits of (unleveraged) 50% or more – exceptionally few people.

Remember I’ve managed to be successful without reading or participating in world of the trader – all I’ve done is look at lots and lots and lots of charts

UPDATE – obviously this one failed as the rules for the set-up need the 3rd bottom to be a higher low = no trade would have been taken either as the “trigger” was not confirmed

How to make money from the markets – getting the 25%

This post shows you how to get that elusive 25%+ return from the markets

If it were easy everyone would be doing it – it’s not easy, remember you’r trading blank space to the right of all the price data, every trade you take you enter the unknown – if you cannot handle that amount of pressure then don’t trade.

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Now – lets assume a trading account of £10k

The risk of this trade would be: 49.02p

If we didn’t want to risk more than 5% of our account £500 per trade then this would allow us to purchase 1019 shares

so IF we risked £500 on this position = 5% of our account, then you can see by the EX RET grey lines we’d of made between 2-3 times our risk – this is solely dependent upon how we’d of exited the position

Let’s assume we got 2 x risk = £1,000 profit or 2 x 5% = 10% return in 3 months

Then you’d simply repeat this process on the next market to display the entry requirements over the course of the year and you will get close to the desired amount.

Now in the chart above you had 2 choices in the zone for taking the 10% profit – either take the 10% profit and start hunting for the next market displaying the set-up OR sit through a decline/pullback in the hope that the market would just be slightly correcting and then advance further upwards – if you took that risk you can see this trade would have delivered 20%+

That decision is up to you – I prefer to get in and out and not risk pullbacks, as sometimes the pullbacks retrace too much and rather than have a 10% profit you end up with a 3% profit etc – there’s NO norm with this (you could if you wanted sell 50% of your position @ 10% and then trail the remaining half etc)

Now the very very important bit – the market above is the FTSE250 Index:

  • Indexes don’t MOVE as much or as fast as Individual markets, I’ve shown you the slow market but you can see it still works
  • If you look at Individual shares and the market puts in a #3 low with a small narrow range bar, it will = more profit return should the trade work
  • Remember not all trades will work, you have no choice but to expect some losing trades during the year

If your risk tolerance is only say 3%, then you can work out you need to trade a certain number of times a year to hit the 25% goal.

The KEY to this is that you simply REPEAT this method a FEW times a year to get the 25%  – sitting tight for the 25% is pretty risky in itself as a method, it does work but not as much as you’d like, so a few snatched 10% profits over the year is the way I do business with the market and it’s pretty successful

Then the following year your risk then becomes 3% or whatever you choose of the new account balance – your £10k might now be worth £12,500, so 3% of that amount will be £375 instead of just £300 risk per trade.

This is just 1 or many ways to catch the lows, but at least you can see and have a proven method that ACTUALLY works in any market and on any time-frame.

As you can see you’re not fighting the market, you’re trading WITH the trend, you’re getting in at the smart end very early on – If you are thinking “….Catching a falling knife” then you need to take 10 mins and re-read, research and clear your thinking, as this method isn’t catching the falling knife, it’s ALREADY fallen, lodged into the table and violently vibrating back and forth – all we’re doing is grabbing the handle as it’s stopped falling and getting in right at the start of the new up trend

Good luck and best wishes

PS- I don’t short the market, so that is the reason that I’ve not discussed or shown any short trades – Long only is the safest way to go

THT

How to make money from the markets – Finding the Lows

Okay so we know markets grow over time and that differs per market – for example remember that GOLD chart I showed you? Well for the next 2 decades all it will do is move sideways, BUT during that time it will be tradeable, but it isn’t going to the moon (that will happen during the next cycle – so that will be the time to load up and just hold on)

Now I’m an aggressive trader – I want as much out of a move as possible, that sometimes works against me! so I’m going to calm it down a bit for these posts to make sure you know and see all options.

I’ll show you everything you need to know to make this work properly and profitably

I’m afraid you do need a couple of technical bits and bobs and you need a basic maths brain which we’ve ALL got.

Now in this post we’ll look at the lows only – not much else.

Remember our goal? 25%+ profit per year! from non-leveraged markets

Which is a pretty heft goal (The best bull run EVER was 1982-2000 in the SP500, that returned 1399% over 18 years, simple interest = 77%, compounded it was about 16% + divis.

We want to focus on the COMPOUNDED interest as that’s the most important as we want to compound every year and as mentioned above our target/goal is 25%

Now if you follow my techniques – there is no doubt you WILL be classed as or become a Professional Trader, you will be better than 99.9% of ALL professional fund managers out there! Why? Because you will be returning money FASTER than them – they can’t do this with a massive fund

The techniques I will show you can be used on ANY market, ANY time-frame and can be used for CFD’s, ETF’s, ETN’s, Funds, Shares, Stocks, Forex, Indexes, Spreadbetting etc – you get the picture!

Now this is crucial – you have to trade the market of your choice from the trading platform you use – you can’t look at say the cash SP500 Index and try to trade that chart on your spread betting providers platform, there’ll be differences in price etc so say you wanted to trade the SP500 Index, you HAVE to get the chart and data from the spread betting providers platform and base your trading decisions from that.

Now i only tell you that because I obtain all my data from an independent 3rd party and export that data into my preferred trading chart software provider – i then have to go to the trouble of comparing charts if I’m using a spread bet etc as the spread bet providers markets won’t be exactly priced as per market data!

Hope that makes sense.

If all you do is trade pure markets then you won’t have the issue above.

So HOW do we find the lows?

  1. Have a system for finding LOWs
  2. Let the market tell you a potential low is in

Remember to just keep it as simple as possible, as soon as you start adding conditions to a method it becomes very messy and you will for certain get false readings and before you know it you’ll be stalling to pull the trigger – the only way we make money in this game is by being right and only once we’ve taken a position.

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You can see that sometimes there’s more than a year between trading opportunities, which is why you have to monitor multiple markets – you want at least 5-8 opportunities a year – markets pull back like this ALL the time, so you are bound to find opportunities every month of the year, especially if you monitor 300+ markets – in my hotlist I have 380 markets I monitor all the time.

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for those interested, this pattern is basically WD Gann’s higher low/bottom pattern

Did you notice the one thing about my preferred Low system?

The BEST opportunities followed the “Waterfall” crashes/corrections – Plunge then 1,2,3 and In

Now you can see what to look for at lows, we know that the best opportunities follow the really sharp fast plunges in price – this is precisely the points that people are very scared about entering around! But they give the best opportunities.

You could just use the Indicator too!

Next post looks at how to enter and protect the position, along with possible price targets and most importantly HOW to make those 25%+ annual returns

PS – anyone play FOREX markets?

This one had 1600 pips written on it!

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Just for those that aren’t clear or traders – the “RISK” on this position would have been 202 pips, to make 1600 pips = 8 times risk potential, in English that means if you’d have risked £2.47 a pip = £498.94 total risk to make £3,952 – If 2300 pips is met then that’s a 11 times risk return or £5,681 – in 1 year.

If that £498.94 = 3% of your trading account then in 1 year you just made 24%

you caught the bottom (beware people say it can’t be done!), you just made decent double digit returns (remember people say it can’t be done!) and ALL from a stupidly simple chart pattern

Now think – this would not have been your only trade of 2017! You’d of most likely taken a few more different trades, which more than likely produced similar % returns!

Can you see how it’s possible to make high end double digit returns from the markets when you do things PROPERLY

 

 

How to make money from the markets – The beast of the market

This post will help you to simplify how you see, view and think about the market.

No-one and I mean no-one truly understands the market, but it does do things over and over again that you can exploit and that is what we do to make money from

You’ll probably think that experts, fund managers and the like know what the market is going to do – THEY DON’T!

They have a best GUESS but that is all

Let me repeat this because it’s very important – You’ll probably think that experts, fund managers and the like know what the market is going to do – THEY DON’T!

Individual shares can crash to zero – a market index CAN’T

The longest market we have is the Dow Jones Index, it started in 1792 – that index has NEVER reached zero – From this fact alone we must conclude that the long-term move of that market is upwards

Here’s a chart of the S&P500 Index since 1962

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Is it going down or upwards?

overall upwards – still hasn’t hit zero!

Point made.

So we know that the main markets long term trend is UPWARDS – that does not mean it can’t fall, it does fall and it always will have times when it falls – that fact again is absolutely unavoidable, and it’s usually these minor/medium-term fluctuations that cause people to lose money.

Looking at the chart above – Tell me when has been the BEST time to buy that market?

In the past? – YES

At the major Lows? – YES

At the major highs? – NO

At the Minor Correction Lows? – YES

So what can you determine from that?  Well buying at the major and minor lows seems like a pretty good way to profit from the long-term trend of the market!

So wouldn’t it make some sort of sense trying to develop and use a plan that try’s to do just that? Of course it does.

Remember – this is the main stock market, not individual shares, individual shares and and do go to zero, main markets don’t and haven’t in centuries!

You can apply this thinking to Individual shares (I do) but you just have to be 100% aware that the share does have the potential of going bust and taking your money with it

The techniques i am talking to you about in future posts are applicable to ALL markets, Forex, Commodities, Individual shares etc etc etc etc – future posts will show you how to buy and sell as safely as possible.

Right lets look at some more charts – whilst viewing these bear in mind the questions posed above about WHEN was the best time to buy these markets

I’m picking charts of markets and showing you the Weekly chart over a random period of time – most likely a few years – so you can see the same PRINCIPLES as to when is best to buy can be seen on these charts of differing markets.

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So as you can see, even if a market is going sideways or down, there are still opportunities to take and make money from

It depends upon which type of Investor you are as to what your next move is – If you are a buy and hold investor then I would not look at any other markets other than shares and indexes of the main share indexes – i.e. S&P500, FTSE250 etc

For this type of Investor the best time to buy is the major lows and hold, or on fairly decent pullbacks/corrections (15%+ etc) but you’ll still get hammered on the major corrections.

If you are a trader then ALL markets are open for business to you

The next posts will look at how to do this.

PS – The gold chart above – there is absolutely NO way on earth you cannot say the parabolic moves shown on the charts are not similar forms to each other – they won’t be identical (it doesn’t work that way) but they are CAUSED by the exact SAME cause that is simply REPEATING at a different energy level – which is exactly why they look fairly similar to each other.

If you get a chart of the NASDAQ100 Index from 2000 and place it over a chart of the Dow from 1929 you will see the form of the Nasdaq100 repeating that of the Dow! Because the same Time Cycle repeated – it really is that simple

The markets are doing something very very few people realise, the established authorities if aware will never confirm as it would wreck and destroy the fund management industry and all that money slushing around

So if we’re all agreed that the best possible times are to buy when prices are low, lets look at some methods to find these lows – keep posted for next post.

Special chart for you

Sort of self-explanatory really – cup of Tea/Coffee, 10 mins look at each cycle – they don’t always cause a major turn in the market – this normal and it’s why it’s hard to trade these cycles.

I just use cycles to confirm thinking and for observational purposes only – unless the cycle is absolutely compelling – such as the major cycle that was due in 2016.

We’ll watch these cycles as the year evolves to see if the rest of them have any/much impact on the markets

Forgot to say – you could of had these cycles on that chart since very early 2017

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How to make money from the markets – Introduction

There’s a huge number of myths out there about investing and trading that are quite simply – a load of rubbish.

Over the next few months, I’m going to show you how to make money from ANY market.

The first question you have to answer is:

  1. What do you want from the markets?

 

This will be personable to you – It could be anything!

This is what I want from the market:

  • When I decide to trade the market, I want to beat the markets return!
  • I aim for 25%+ and from that I know that over 3 years+ I will beat the market

so from that base I then set about formulating a plan of action to try to obtain 25% + return from the market annually

As I’m a very lazy person, naturally I wanted the easiest route to achieving this goal.

There is no Holy Grail and by that I mean some unknown, unknown that no-ones discovered yet that will let you be right 100% of the time.

Take a breath, think about it – there is not one system, method or technique that works 100% of the time.

  • That then means that you have got to take positions based on faith, trust and gambling

Yep that’s right, its a gamble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So if it’s a gamble, then don’t you think it makes sense to remove as much risk to the gamble, guess, as is possible?  Of course it does.

That is what I’m going to show you in this series of posts

I’m going to show you how to AIM for that 25%+ annual returns from a variety of methods

There’s lots of methods to trade by – your next important question you’ll need to answer for yourself is

  • Are you willing to trade boringly and EXACTLY the same time after time

If your answer to this question is NO – then trading is probably NOT for you – you cannot start mixing and matching and varying what you do

For example I trade ONLY when the market is in a perfect set-up formation that I have devised (and i will show you this) – if the conditions aren’t there, then I won’t be putting money at risk.

So over the coming months I will show you how to make money from the markets, how to identify potential trades and how to think properly.

This series of posts will be based at the complete novice level, but it’s applicable to professional traders too – the whole aim of trading/Investing is to make money from the money you put at risk.

Now there’s only 2 ways to do that:

  1. Invest and then leave (Buying and Holding) or
  2. Trading

I like to be as much in control as I can of my money so I sit in the traders camp, as I’m often sat in cash waiting to take a position and then my positions tend to last days-weeks or months not years.

You’re going to need to understand and use basic mathematical concepts, because I’m afraid it is all about the maths whether you turn a profit or not!

Let’s say you make the 25% per year goal, if you start with £3,000 then over 25 years that will grow to £794K!

That’s a nice payback for extracting money from the markets.

Now if you’re a buy and hold investor then you will be fully exposed to market forces and you’re likely to experience some pretty hefty corrections along the way over the years – you are highly unlikely to hit the 25%+ goal per annum using this method – you might do it a few years out of 10, but not 10/10 years.

Make sure your signed up to receive posts when I make them, so you don’t miss the next one – this will look at the market as a beast in it’s simplest form.

How to guess the market

Someone asked me the other week for my opinion on the markets – see chart below, the text on the chart came to fruition and worked perfectly.

Outlook for February?

Well just from the formation on the weekly chart [not shown] and it’s relative DTosc Indicator = BEARISH

and the daily chart is due for a bounce next week, but you need to be very wary of the daily DTosc when it next makes a bearish reversal as if the weekly chart is still bearish then the odds are very high for further falls

Again all this is based on how the charts “look” TODAY – my opinion could change in the coming weeks as more data is printed on the charts

A professional moves with the times not get stuck on the now, past of personal opinions – let the market tell you what it’s actually doing!

This site is made for people reading on a PC – phones will not display the charts clearly

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The Timing and Character of Investment Legislation

Great read and helps to make sense of things – rather than subscribe to market myths touted by fund management groups etc

 

http://www.socionomics.net/2003/01/the-timing-and-character-of-investment-legislation/

Look back to 2017 and forward to 2018

2017 was a cracker of a year (No charts in this post)

The time Cycle that was expected in December 2016, came in bang on time for the FTSE100 Index and 1 month prior for the Nasdaq100 – this is absolutely exceptional for a big Time-Cycle.

Had you taken a 5 times leveraged FTSE100 ETF Tracker you’d of made 70-80% from Dec’16 to Jun’17

Had you Invested in the Santa Rally of 2017 you’d of made another 15% too

I’m not advocating using leveraged funds – but if you have a very high probability expectation of market direction due to conforming indicators then it’s a good use of strategy.

Just using a simple ETF tracker – you’d of beaten the market by trading not buying and holding!

The markets high now so there should be some sort of pullback in the next few weeks – to what degree/severity I don’t know – that’s one of the beauties of trading, I’m currently 100% in cash and safety so I’ll wait for the correction/pullback or sideways move and then get back in when the Weekly DTosc tells me it’s safe to do so.

So what’s in store for 2018???

I do not have a clue – I do know that I’ll be trading a few of the swing lows from the markets that I monitor (Natural Gas just triggered a trade on 29th December 2017 – so I expect to be taken into that 1st thing on the 1st trading day in the New Year)

The 8th year is said to be positive/bullish – If you look back 10 years and 20 years, you will note that 2008 was not bullish and 1998 was – the COMMON factor between them both and 1988 if you look back 30 years – IS big swings up and down in the markets

From the markets rapid advance since 2009 – I’d expect 1-2 fairly decent pullbacks throughout the year – but I’d be surprised if the Dec 2016 (Nov’16 USA markets) LOW was reached and breached

Best of luck for 2018 – Thank you for following my blog and posts, I look forward to posting a bit more in 2018 for you on Ideas, methods and the like