Update to “Don’t do this too often” post

As EXPECTED

Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!

86

Advertisements

Time Cycle Due 6th December 2016 – Update

It is looking more and more likely that the Time cycle arrived EARLY on 4th November 2016. See chart below for details – there’s still a little time left for this to be proved incorrect but it’s getting tight – remember with long range cycles they have to have a good few weeks lee-way either side of the expected date.

HOWEVER, as the sudden explosive force the markets shown around the TC date it’s well and truly odds-on that the new UP cycle that we’ve been talking about and I’ve been counting down to every month for the past year has ARRIVED, which is why the markets have been propelling upwards with force.

The Nasdaq100 is slightly diverging from the Dow and S&P500

The WEEKLY and DAILY DTosc’s for the Dow and S&P500 have been BEARISH for a while now and PRICE is refusing to fall/decline significantly – this is a BULLISH outlook.

It is not out of the ordinary if those markets show further price gains – this is highly likely to be in unison with the WEEKLY DTosc becoming BEAR OS or BULLISH and the DAILY DTosc turning BULLISH

14

15

1617

The Nasdaq 100 also made a LOW on the 4th November 2016

I did say it could come in a 4 week period either side of the expected date AND that the low point would not necessarily be a major price low – the charts above support the expectation and you need to read the remaining info as this sort of info backs up the thinking – also note if you were expecting a major low then you’ve not understood things – The major LOW of this down cycle was 2009 (as mentioned years ago)

Look at the number of days from low to low in the 2 charts below!

Mid-Cycle LOW of the DOWN cycle to LOW of the END of the Cycle

Chart 1 = 1974-1982 (Down Cycle)

Chart 2 = 2009-2016 (Down Cycle)

19

Dates highlighted by Stock Market Geometry

20

Dates highlighted by Stock Market Geometry

The REASON why the charts look different at the end is because in 1982 the August low was the same cycle that arrived in August 2015, whereas the Dec 2016 Cycle arrived in 1981 – so this time around the cycles arrived in a DIFFERENT ORDER than in 1982

The chart below is to show you the effect of the Time Cycle [TC] on the FTSE100 – throughout this process the effects of all the TC’s have been more pronounced on the FTSE100

21

Now on the chart below this is what I’ve had on one of my charts for a long time – The chart looks at the MAJOR turning points of the market over years and decades and is basically Pythagoras’s Theorem with the price range as the hypotenuse – This creates what’s known in engineering as a VECTOR – A Vector can pivot about its point of anchor and spin around 360 degrees (Didn’t W.D. Gann focus on the circle and 360 degs?) – If you take a Vector length and use it to draw a circle, the circle will create ARCS that can be used for both TIMING and PRICE levels (Blog post on that coming sometime in 2017) TIP – Not all Circles are centred at price highs and lows, the centre is often way out of the way unrelated to price/time until it becomes obvious the circle was cradling price and time (no examples in this chart BUT It is the feature of a future blog post in the pipeline)

On the chart is a list of results for PRICE when projecting out previous  Vectors – the vector of  the 2000 – 2003 CRASH when multiplied by the Square root of TWO (1.414)and then converted to a price level gives you 2080.87

The LOW of 4th November 2016 = 2083.79

3 points difference! (2.92 Pts to be EXACT)

So far this is the nearest hit as I use either tops or bottoms to calculate the vector to and from.

13

Those figures on the chart were posted in a previous blog post too – I just didn’t show the chart (above)

Think about this – My previous post on TRIANGLES – Are you able to fit Triangles into a Cubic structure? (YES you can) – what IS a cube made from?

6 Squares that’s correct – Now in a square what is the DIAGONAL as a ratio?  =1.414

So if you took the 2000-2002 crash value 1028 – as the SIDE of a square then times that by 1.414 you get the DIAGONAL of a square and that is the 2009-2016 rally

A value of 1.43 is so close to being 1,414 that you can say that the rally from 2002-2007 is also the DIAGONAL of the 2000-2002 crash – there’s FIBONACCI growth cycle in there too!

So from the Crash cycle date of 24th March 2000 – BOTH the rallies have grown by a Root 2 (1.414) pattern

Again do not expect exactness – leeway has to be used.

You can see that I was looking for links in price levels that represented certain ratio’s that are found in GEOMETRY – Gann mentioned geometry in his courses.

If you go back decades you’ll find vector ratios that conform to the mathematical ratios of PI, PHI, Square roots of 2,3 and 5 and MUSICAL ratios AND other Square Roots

The Vector 1473 above is obviously the musical 5th (3:2)of the 2007-09 crash vector value of 985 – so the Price advance from 2002-2007 = 3 and the Price crash from 2007-2009 = 2, divide 3 by 2 = 1.5

I will at some point during 2017 put the long range Time Cycles onto a chart to watch for as future years pass.

I wrote this post a few weeks ago and was going to publish it straight away, but decided to hold on until it was fairly clear the allowable time for Dec 2016 TC had expired – I would say that the TC came early in November and that (as we have seen) the Cycle now in play is the UP cycle as forecast years ago – The expected pullback came in as a whimpering sideways (but bearish) market rather than a price decline/plunge

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the market is going straight upwards – it WON’T. – there should be (this year) a very decent correction to square out the price advance since 2009 – that correction can’t be assigned to the expected Dec 2016 TC as too much time has gone by now for the DEc TC to be relevant.

Price HAS to square itself out, as multiple TRIANGLES form and build the market upwards, sideways and downwards – REMEMBER the natural GROWTH of the market is upwards

I will publish this year the sub-cycles to watch to 2034 and I will publish some other cycles to watch – REMEMBER and this is very very important – The markets are not working out 2 Dimension movements, they are working out in 3/4 Dimensions, for that to be recorded onto a 2 Dimension price chart is IMPOSSIBLE UNLESS the movement of the markets are SQUARE ON to the chart (which is rare!) This is WHY you CAN’T just draw perfect squares and then project of that – it doesn’t work like that I’m afraid!  In the last chart all I’ve done is connected the high/low pivots which happen to make a square visually- that is NOT the square the market is making – the market crosses lots of squares that you can’t see.  You can then confirm with Mathematics when something has occurred.

 

The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
(more…)

Exactly 12 Months and counting

Countdown:

12 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

How to DOUBLE your return with half the risk

This post is for the Investors amongst you rather than the traders, although it is something that you should ALL be aware of regardless of your stance.

If you have or plan to obtain a Stock Market Almanac – this strategy is in there and has been for a number of years!

(more…)

How to Invest Properly – the ONLY way

The vast majority of people Invest incorrectly – they only get away with it because the markets NATURAL movement is continual GROWTH.

This makes poor Investors think that they are good, it makes brokers look like they know what they’re doing and how the markets work – through in a decent bear market or decent market correction and they are quickly exposed as their funds/clients funds start reducing in value.

There is a right way to Invest though and it goes against EVERY piece of Investment advice out there – If you can TIME the market you will beat the masses big time

funds won’t tell you as they’re not allowed to do this, brokers won’t tell because they don’t know and that all leaves you to the moves of the markets.

Look at these charts that follow and tell me it’s not common sense or best to get in at the KEY turning points – ALL the key turns that follow were the RESULT of a key Time Cycle(s) – I have seen this too many times for it to be coincidental, too many times

1982-2000

2000-2017

1982-2017

To ENHANCE returns you can now buy 2 x ETF’s of an Index!

The NEXT cycle is UP – the general market action after 17 years WILL be very similar to that of 1982-2000 – not exactly but similar in form and it will rise on average at a faster rate than 2000-2017 rates.

The time to BE a buy and hold investor is fast approaching – compound up 50% growth annually over 17 years and you’ll see the power of buying and holding during the RIGHT and CORRECT market conditions

Good Luck

You were Warned

I did warn you of 18th August 2015 as being a key cycle date- 3 months agooooooooo

look back over previous blog posts – NOT the site – Blog posts and you will SEE

So lets recap – May 2013 Time Cycle bang on to the DAY and August 18th 2015 Time Cycle – Bang on to the DAY

Funny how this pie in the sky time cycle stuff seems to be so accurate!

Next cycle date is 6th December 2016 which turns this sorry affair UP UP UP

so as the rest of the world is likely to be wallowing in bear market pity, I will be getting ready to go full on in the market and long long long

The Famous 13 year Cycle

Following on from previous cycles, we’ll take a look at the 13 year cycle – this cycle is in the BIBLE and it represents the BEAST cycle as it’s approx 666 weeks in length (actually 666-668 weeks, but lets not be picky)

This cycle is actually 5 cycles and based on the way you calculate the varying cycles they come out very close to each other in length – you could derive Phi from these cycles as some cycles are based on 13 revolutions and others 8 and 5 – those are Fibonacci numbers and show up within this cycle.

But I don’t use Fibonacci in this cycle, its a coincidence of the concept, obviously it influences it somehow, but I never intentionally set out to include it, it just happens to be there as a result of the cycles.

Look at the chart:

13 year cycle main clusters

See the beauty of this 13 year cycle – its fairly clear!

On the face of it it looks like it failed in 2013 – wait until you look at the close up before judging.

Let’s look at the crash of 1987 – this explains it

13 yea r cycle 1987

Lets look at 2000

13 year cycle 2000

Now lets take a look at the beast cycle in the SP500 Index

Beast cycle in SP500

It came in RIGHT on target, but it did not have the desired effect on the market, but you cannot deny it came in right on time!

Let’s look at the beast cycle in my main index the FTSE100 Index

Beast cycle in FTSE100

AGAIN it came in RIGHT on time and in the FTSE100 it forced the market sideways for months!  Now in my book a flat sideways market is just as destructive and bearish as a right out market crash.

I got out of the market at the very top bar in May 2013

Now what about it’s next cycle?  Well it’s due in 2026 (2013+13) but WHEN?

13 year cycle 2026

There is a cluster in March 2026 – but the key time period has to be end Feb right through to end March 2026

ALL the dates in the above charts are projected from 1949 and 1987 and just look at how tightly packed all these dates are projected from those dates – that is AMAZING

Now you know I was previously talking about (in other posts) projecting the mid cycle acceleration point in the next Inflationary/UP cycle well projected from the 1982 LOW it arrives on 15/11/2026 – It makes logical sense to possible expect that the beast cycle of March 2026 drags down the market into November 2026 and then explodes upwards to finish off the cycle – just a guess though!

The 1975 Cycle obviously Inverted to a bottom rather than a top as the market was falling heavily into it. that is the only odd ball part to the 13 year cycle

Here’s the next Time Cycle addition

Taking this really slowly as you HAVE to understand each Cycle and step – there’s lots and lots of factors involved in all the cycles and it took me a long time (3 years) to get grips with them and I’m still far from being an expert.

You do know where this is going don’t you? – I’m eventually going to drill down to the lower Time Cycles and reveal the dates of those to you!  That’s a month or so away though, depending upon time.

Right chart below looks exactly as previous post? – Nope I’ve added the PINK Time Cycle line to this graph – LOOK

Time cycles2

so what?

Well the WHAT is that this is a senior Time Cycle, in the context of this chart and example it has coincided with 3 major stock market turning points – it’s heading into another key time!!!!!!

So whats so fancy about this and all the other cycles?

Well BOTH the BLUE and PINK Time Cycles have been projected from 12/12/1914 – 100 years ago and still working strongly!

(more…)

New look at Time Cycles

The graph below need some explanation, see underneath the chart for that, in the meantime just take 5 minutes to look and think about what you see on the chart:

1

DOWN                               UP                                        DOWN

The first thing that you should see is that ALL coloured lines occur at key turning points in the market.

Let me tell you what i “see”:

The BLUE lines are the MAIN Time Cycle that drives the market, so for example you can see in 1966 this Time Cycle started until 1981 – this time cycle determines Inflationary/Deflationary times and in 1966-1981 it was Deflationary so you HAVE to expect a depressed stock market, which is exactly what happened.

1981-1998 was INFLATIONARY hence the massively rising stock market – again as expected – this MAIN time Cycle alternates between Inflationary and Deflationary and from 1998-2016 guess what? It’s been DEFLATIONARY as expected and the stock market HAS complied accordingly!

Have a wild stab in the dark of what type of Time Cycle to expect from 2016 until 2034?  INFLATIONARY? Correct and with Inflationary cycles what should you expect from the stock market? Rising that’s right.

Now, look at the RED line:

This is a DIFFERENT Time Cycle to the blue line, but what you do is project the RED time cycle from the preceding BLUE line, so for example, to get the RED Time Cycle for 1982, I’ve projected it off the 1966 BLUE Time Cycle date – just look at how ACCURATE these are in key turning points in the market:

The 1968 TOP came in right on time! projected from 1950, 1982 came bang on projected from 1966 and 2000 came in a month or two early but still very accurate, projected from 1982, now projected from 1998 = August 2015!!!!!

Have to wait and see what happens around that date, but it should be a turning point when looking back at it in a few years time.

Right the BLACK lines – these are a variation of the BLUE Time Cycle but projected from decades early, so to get the 1973 date that was projected from, wait for it………1932!!!! and the 2007 BLACK line was projected from the 1966 BLUE line – now STOP and think – look how accurate they are and guess what – that projection tells you WHEN to expect a PLUNGE or major proportion – think what 2007 did to the world economy and then think if you knew what I know you could have projected a stock market plunge of major degree back in 1966 or even early you could do this way back to 1800’s!!

Now the GREEN line – well this one backs up the black line, because the green line is calculated exactly as the BLACK line but from the START of the previous UP cycle – this is to find the mid point of the NEXT UP cycle, this mid point is the point where prices subdue into and then continue UPWARDS.

In the BLACK lines it’s the point where prices FALL – So you project from the START of either the Inflationary or Deflationary cycles to work out the UP or DOWN turning points of the NEXT cycle, so as 1966 cycle was expected and was in fact a DOWN (Deflationary) cycle you KNOW the 2007 date should be a major crash and it was the same for the 1973 date.

The 1994 GREEN line was projected from the 1950 Blue (not shown) cycle start date as that was in fact INFLATIONARY and UPWARDS – and it came in bang on target.

On the chart above I’ve not explained 1974, 1987, 2003 or 2009 – I’ll do that in another post as the way you calculate them is slightly different to these shown, very similar but varying other Time Cycles.

The one thing to note – the RED lines typically follow the BLUE lines and cause the double tops, well this time the RED cycle arrives in 2015 and BEFORE the BLUE cycle of Dec 2016 – the last time this happened was in 1949 and 1950 and the RED cycle turned the markets UPWARDS from its date followed by a slight crash into the BLUE cycle date and then bang the UP cycle continued to 1966 BLUE cycle line.  Be Interesting what happens this time around.

ANOTHER thing to note – the price LOWS in between the BLUE cycle lines of the DEFLATIONARY cycles (1966-1981 and 1998-2016) the LOW points are NEVER exceeded, the cycle ends higher than that low point – look at 1982, prices FELL from 1981 BLUE cycle into the RED cycle, the RED cycle forced prices down – why DOWN? because the RED cycle arrived AFTER the BLUE cycle – look at 1968!

This time around the RED cycle arrives BEFORE the BLUE cycle date.

Until you see these cycles for yourself and you plot them on a long-term chart you don’t really believe they work, but they clearly DO.  Now not all, but a LOT of these cycles can be

I will of course in time document expectations for the next UP cycle that occurs in 2016.

This is NOT my own work, it’s what I have learnt from studying the works of my preferred GANN course provider – all the credit has to go to him for discovering all of this and there’s a few more cycles I’ve not shown to keep the charts clutter free, but to aid in such analysis those cycles should be added