How to make money from the markets – Introduction

There’s a huge number of myths out there about investing and trading that are quite simply – a load of rubbish.

Over the next few months, I’m going to show you how to make money from ANY market.

The first question you have to answer is:

  1. What do you want from the markets?

 

This will be personable to you – It could be anything!

This is what I want from the market:

  • When I decide to trade the market, I want to beat the markets return!
  • I aim for 25%+ and from that I know that over 3 years+ I will beat the market

so from that base I then set about formulating a plan of action to try to obtain 25% + return from the market annually

As I’m a very lazy person, naturally I wanted the easiest route to achieving this goal.

There is no Holy Grail and by that I mean some unknown, unknown that no-ones discovered yet that will let you be right 100% of the time.

Take a breath, think about it – there is not one system, method or technique that works 100% of the time.

  • That then means that you have got to take positions based on faith, trust and gambling

Yep that’s right, its a gamble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So if it’s a gamble, then don’t you think it makes sense to remove as much risk to the gamble, guess, as is possible?  Of course it does.

That is what I’m going to show you in this series of posts

I’m going to show you how to AIM for that 25%+ annual returns from a variety of methods

There’s lots of methods to trade by – your next important question you’ll need to answer for yourself is

  • Are you willing to trade boringly and EXACTLY the same time after time

If your answer to this question is NO – then trading is probably NOT for you – you cannot start mixing and matching and varying what you do

For example I trade ONLY when the market is in a perfect set-up formation that I have devised (and i will show you this) – if the conditions aren’t there, then I won’t be putting money at risk.

So over the coming months I will show you how to make money from the markets, how to identify potential trades and how to think properly.

This series of posts will be based at the complete novice level, but it’s applicable to professional traders too – the whole aim of trading/Investing is to make money from the money you put at risk.

Now there’s only 2 ways to do that:

  1. Invest and then leave (Buying and Holding) or
  2. Trading

I like to be as much in control as I can of my money so I sit in the traders camp, as I’m often sat in cash waiting to take a position and then my positions tend to last days-weeks or months not years.

You’re going to need to understand and use basic mathematical concepts, because I’m afraid it is all about the maths whether you turn a profit or not!

Let’s say you make the 25% per year goal, if you start with £3,000 then over 25 years that will grow to £794K!

That’s a nice payback for extracting money from the markets.

Now if you’re a buy and hold investor then you will be fully exposed to market forces and you’re likely to experience some pretty hefty corrections along the way over the years – you are highly unlikely to hit the 25%+ goal per annum using this method – you might do it a few years out of 10, but not 10/10 years.

Make sure your signed up to receive posts when I make them, so you don’t miss the next one – this will look at the market as a beast in it’s simplest form.

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How to guess the market

Someone asked me the other week for my opinion on the markets – see chart below, the text on the chart came to fruition and worked perfectly.

Outlook for February?

Well just from the formation on the weekly chart [not shown] and it’s relative DTosc Indicator = BEARISH

and the daily chart is due for a bounce next week, but you need to be very wary of the daily DTosc when it next makes a bearish reversal as if the weekly chart is still bearish then the odds are very high for further falls

Again all this is based on how the charts “look” TODAY – my opinion could change in the coming weeks as more data is printed on the charts

A professional moves with the times not get stuck on the now, past of personal opinions – let the market tell you what it’s actually doing!

This site is made for people reading on a PC – phones will not display the charts clearly

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Don’t do this too much

My style of blog is one that makes you think, do a bit of work for yourself – I don’t often give specifics out as people won’t and don’t appreciated them and others will likely just copy if you give too much critical info out for free.

Here’s a chart of the S&P500 from the weekend – I updated it on Monday.

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The S&P500 is in a classic position – at present the odds are well and truly to the UPSIDE, but obviously not guaranteed.

Just for reference the WEEKLY DTosc should bearish OS at the end of this week which coupled with the Daily DTosc Bullish reversal that will be due soon – is the PERFECT position for the bullish outlook.

Obviously that outlook completely changes if the market fails to comply with that level of thinking and the low of C is taken out

Can you SEE just how EASY it is to trade from 2 Indicators! along with a very basic pattern seen often in the markets for

  1. I can predict the preferred likely outcome in advance – not guaranteed but most likely
  2. I then have targets to see if the trade makes financial sense taking
  3. I KNOW point C could be a deal breaker
  4. All in advance

S&P500 – REVIEW Friday 10th March 2017

Hi,

I’m writing this analysis of the S&P500 Friday evening 10th March 2017 as a basic review of the S&P500 market.

Detail on the charts – Basic analysis based on previous SWINGS of the market

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Based on basic time and price analysis what I’m saying is – we are at a juncture that is unclear, but that outlook might become much more clear as time passes.

Trying to guess every swing up and down of minor moves is a fools game in my opinion – REMEMBER both those charts are BULLISH – there is absolutely no information on those charts that suggest a bearish scenario! None what so ever.

WHAT I’m SHOWING you is that is IS POSSIBLE to gauge the markets most likely movement based on time, price and an indicator!

Only last WEEK I warned someone to be wary of a top forming – that has now HAPPENED

The KEY is to watch the Weekly high – If that gets taken out then everything swings back to the upside, if it’s not taken out and further lows are printed then we are in the situation of a possible sideways to down market for the next few weeks – we should find out next week who’s in power, the bulls or bears

UPDATE – Got it right so far

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Close of play Friday – changed the DTosc!

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ANOTHER THT Wedger trade on the Dow!

I didn’t plan on posting so much this month – I was looking forward to a few weeks break, but this set-up just keeps on showing up- especially on the Dow (its also on the S&P500 too this time).

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This will be the last THT Wedger set-up post

Thanks for your support and reading of the posts/site – Have a very merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Complete THT Wedger Trade

All out now – Even though the DTosc is signalling further potential HIGHS! on the Dow and S&P500 – BEWARE Nasdaq100 is NOT confirming the bullishness.

Anyway, THT Wedger trade, details on the chart:

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How come sooooooo much £ and % profit? Because of the very small narrow risk per trade

4 of these trades per year and you’d smash professional traders and fund managers around the world and be in the top 1% of traders globally.

This will be the last time I ever write or comment about the THT Wedger trade for FREE

I’m not the only one – although I most likely was the 1st!!!!!!!

I don’t subscribe to groups, magazines etc so I very rarely see anything like the below – it ended up in my inbox somehow (SPAM Mail)

Take a look at what’s just arrived in my inbox – its self explanatorycapture2

Now take a look at my blog post: https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2016/11/11/sp500-the-big-picture/

The one thing you should be SEEING is that a completely different authority has picked up on the unmistakable 100+ Bull (UP) / Bear (DOWN) Cycle pattern that exists!

Although they’ve not got the sequence right – its still visible!

I think my post called for the S&P500 to be Circa 30,000 points if the last 1400% (1982-2000) growth pattern played out

The EXACT section due to play out is the period from 1949 – 1966

Gann Angles 1 – S&P500

W.D. Gann used angles as the “basis to his analysis”

It’s no secret that Gann liked the CIRCLE, virtually everything he did was based around the Circle and the 360 degrees that fit inside the circle – Gann Angles are just another part of the circle – the angles from 0-90 degrees that fit onto a 2 Dimension chart – computer or paper the only option you have is using them within 90 degrees.

It would be worth you reading Ganns courses to understand how he put it all together.

gann-angles-sp500

I’ve not labelled the angles – the PINK lines are the 1 x 1 angle or in Gann’s parlance the 45 Degree angle.

From 2009 – 2015 it is obvious that PRICE has worked out to the 45 degree 1 x 1 angle

There is no way for certain to work out in advance whether price will follow which angle – price could follow the 8 x 1 up or the 2 x 1 – if price moves up 1000 pts and takes 1000 trading days/weeks or months then it has followed the 1 x 1 angle – you have no idea in advance whether it will or not – you can see though from the chart above that there is obviously something in it unless you’d not have that many hits.

Gann put an angle or combination of angles (as even he didn’t know which angle price would react too) on EVERY high and low, when they intersected/crossed Down/Up etc it often created support/resistance levels

Please note that the scaling on this chart is not 100% precise – I just use the angles as a gauge I don’t use them to trade/Invest from/with – I scaled the price by taking the extreme high and low and dividing by the time taken – this is good in HINDSIGHT but not for forecasting methods……

There is another way to use Gann angles I’ll make a note to do a post on part 2 sometime in 2017 – In the meantime watch out for my 2017 Market Forecast

SP500 – The BIG picture

monthly-sp500-blog-post-1st-nov-2016

 

 

People ask why didn’t we have a 1929 style crash?

The answer is we did – the reason 1929 happened was due to Time cycles but it occurred on the market of favour at the time which happened to be the DJIA, the Dow fell approx 80% from its high in 1929.

Well in 2000 the market of the speculator was the Nasdaq

screen-shot-2014-03-26-at-10-10-22-am

Circa 80% crash! AND VERY, very similar in form to the DJIA 1929 – 1932 crash

What about the 2016 low?

There’s still 2 full months for it to register but its getting tight!

This time round the expectations from 2013 have not panned out great – for example May 2013 time cycles usually start a 3 year bear market this clearly has not happened in the US markets (they have in the UK FTSE100 though)

ftse100-weekly

I stated in a blog post a few years ago it’s highly doubtful that the 2009 low would be met or even exceeded and I’m fairly certain that will still be the case.

Facts are it is absolutely undeniable that since 2000 the cycle changed from up to down, the major turning points of 2003,2007 and 2009 can in bang on time 100% accurate, the next cycle is UP to 2032/34 (double top)

Remember it is impossible to know for certain in advance to what extent a time cycle will move price and it is impossible to predict price in advance with certainty.

The guy I learnt this off when he trades he establishes a position with a trailing stop – He did invest right at the 2009 low but he was out months later! If he knew for certain that from 2009 to 2015 the market would have tracked the 45 degree Gann angle then he would have stayed fully invested during that period and he didn’t he got stopped out in 2009!

 

 

 

 

The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
(more…)