SP500 – The BIG picture

monthly-sp500-blog-post-1st-nov-2016

 

 

People ask why didn’t we have a 1929 style crash?

The answer is we did – the reason 1929 happened was due to Time cycles but it occurred on the market of favour at the time which happened to be the DJIA, the Dow fell approx 80% from its high in 1929.

Well in 2000 the market of the speculator was the Nasdaq

screen-shot-2014-03-26-at-10-10-22-am

Circa 80% crash! AND VERY, very similar in form to the DJIA 1929 – 1932 crash

What about the 2016 low?

There’s still 2 full months for it to register but its getting tight!

This time round the expectations from 2013 have not panned out great – for example May 2013 time cycles usually start a 3 year bear market this clearly has not happened in the US markets (they have in the UK FTSE100 though)

ftse100-weekly

I stated in a blog post a few years ago it’s highly doubtful that the 2009 low would be met or even exceeded and I’m fairly certain that will still be the case.

Facts are it is absolutely undeniable that since 2000 the cycle changed from up to down, the major turning points of 2003,2007 and 2009 can in bang on time 100% accurate, the next cycle is UP to 2032/34 (double top)

Remember it is impossible to know for certain in advance to what extent a time cycle will move price and it is impossible to predict price in advance with certainty.

The guy I learnt this off when he trades he establishes a position with a trailing stop – He did invest right at the 2009 low but he was out months later! If he knew for certain that from 2009 to 2015 the market would have tracked the 45 degree Gann angle then he would have stayed fully invested during that period and he didn’t he got stopped out in 2009!

 

 

 

 

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The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
(more…)

Buy signal

Capture

Relief rally of something more?

Who knows, a buy signal was given – it didn’t meet the requirements exactly but it was very very close, lets see how (if) far it jumps – might be a few decent % gains in it

The market HAS, HAS to be positive at the end of today’s trading, if not the Buy signal was false

Lets see what happens in the days/weeks that follow.

 

 

Exactly 12 Months and counting

Countdown:

12 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

How to DOUBLE your return with half the risk

This post is for the Investors amongst you rather than the traders, although it is something that you should ALL be aware of regardless of your stance.

If you have or plan to obtain a Stock Market Almanac – this strategy is in there and has been for a number of years!

(more…)

How to Invest Properly – the ONLY way

The vast majority of people Invest incorrectly – they only get away with it because the markets NATURAL movement is continual GROWTH.

This makes poor Investors think that they are good, it makes brokers look like they know what they’re doing and how the markets work – through in a decent bear market or decent market correction and they are quickly exposed as their funds/clients funds start reducing in value.

There is a right way to Invest though and it goes against EVERY piece of Investment advice out there – If you can TIME the market you will beat the masses big time

funds won’t tell you as they’re not allowed to do this, brokers won’t tell because they don’t know and that all leaves you to the moves of the markets.

Look at these charts that follow and tell me it’s not common sense or best to get in at the KEY turning points – ALL the key turns that follow were the RESULT of a key Time Cycle(s) – I have seen this too many times for it to be coincidental, too many times

1982-2000

2000-2017

1982-2017

To ENHANCE returns you can now buy 2 x ETF’s of an Index!

The NEXT cycle is UP – the general market action after 17 years WILL be very similar to that of 1982-2000 – not exactly but similar in form and it will rise on average at a faster rate than 2000-2017 rates.

The time to BE a buy and hold investor is fast approaching – compound up 50% growth annually over 17 years and you’ll see the power of buying and holding during the RIGHT and CORRECT market conditions

Good Luck

You were Warned

I did warn you of 18th August 2015 as being a key cycle date- 3 months agooooooooo

look back over previous blog posts – NOT the site – Blog posts and you will SEE

So lets recap – May 2013 Time Cycle bang on to the DAY and August 18th 2015 Time Cycle – Bang on to the DAY

Funny how this pie in the sky time cycle stuff seems to be so accurate!

Next cycle date is 6th December 2016 which turns this sorry affair UP UP UP

so as the rest of the world is likely to be wallowing in bear market pity, I will be getting ready to go full on in the market and long long long

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named

Actually this article was written and produced in September 2014 – I just didn’t publish it on this site – and NOW Deflation is panicking all the finance chiefs of Europe – Predicted years ago and continually – WELL DONE Elliot Wave International for your bold and analytically stance throughout this Deflationary Depression we’ve been in since March 2000.

Very few people called it right – from recollection a handful – well done

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named
The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a “Japan-style” deflation. Here’s our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It’s happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that’s akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: “deflation.”

And it’s not just “deflation.” You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

“Falling prices during deflation actually encourage consumers to spend.”

But once you add the following two very distinct words, there’s no way to turn that frown upside down. And those words are“Japan-style” deflation.

Japan has languished in a deflationary cycle pretty much since the late 1990s, its once booming economy reduced to ‘lost decades’ of stagnation. Europe is now teetering on the edge.” (Sept. 19, Associated Press)

Which begs an obvious question: Weren’t Europe’s central banks supposed to prevent this very scenario from happening via their unprecedented, 4-year-long campaign of “money-printing,” bond-buying and interest-rate-slashing?

The answer to that question is… yes. Those actions were indeed supposed to boost inflation.

What’s more, no one can say the European Central Bank didn’t utilize every available tool in their arsenal to try and accomplish that end. The problem is they were fighting a losing battle.

And, we are both happy and sad at the same time to report that from the very beginning, when the first rate cut was loaded into the save-the-economy cannon, we at Elliott Wave International foresaw that Europe’s retreat toward deflation was unavoidable.

Here’s a quick recap of what led us to that conclusion.

— 2011 —

January 2011: The “D” word is way off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices has fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation. Writes one January 22, 2011 LA Times article:

“Around the world, many countries aren’t confronted with the debilitating forces of deflation, but the opposite — inflation. Annualized inflation in the euro zone rose above the 2% target rate for the first time in more than 2 years.”

February 2011: The European Central Bank unveils its brand-new Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), extending nearly half a trillion euros in 3-year loans to banks at negligible interest rates — to stimulate the economy (and inflation).

July 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index declines, prompting a sigh of relief, not a shudder of fear from the Bank of England, who says “we can now breathe a little easier.”

(VS.)

Our August 2011 European Financial Forecast:

“We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks’ paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread.”

September 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index peaks at 5.2% and officially sets the downtrend in motion.

— 2012 —

January 2012: The Bank of England adds another 50 billion pounds to its asset purchase program, bringing its 3-year campaign of “money-printing” to 325 billion. The European Central Bank is less than 14 years old, yet total assets at the ECB breach 3 trillion.

February/March 2012: U.K. producer price inflation comes in higher than expected, prompting one U.K. economist to say: “PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes,” the clinical term for those who fear deflation. The economist goes on to recommend that sufferers “seek therapy.” (March 12 Wall Street Journal)

(VS.)

Our July 2012 European Financial Forecast:

“Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they’re again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009.”

August 2012 European Financial Forecast makes the first comparison of Europe to Japan:

“European leaders,” by slashing rates and printing money “seem determined to replicate Japan’s experience. Their efforts will not stop consumer price deflation.”

— 2014 —

May 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“The chart shows that British CPI accelerated lower after falling from a counter-trend peak of 5.2% back in September 2011, with year-over-year price growth just ticks above its late-2009 low.

“More than half of the 28 EU nations either teeter on the brink of deflation or have succumbed to falling prices already.

“The following chart shows that economic stagnation has reached even Germany, Europe’s most robust economy.”

September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“In a related phenomenon, the press has now jumped on the slew of similarities between Europe’s flagging economy and Japan’s… Clearly, the parallel paths of the two regions have become impossible for the press to ignore.

“The central bank’s latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners. Also like Japan, the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks’ overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.

The world has finally woken up to the possibility of a Japan-style deflation in Europe — years after the writing was already on the wall.

Now, you need to prepare for what’s to come.

The best part is, Elliott Wave International’s Founder and President, Robert Prechter, as written a book that can help you do just that. And you can read 8 chapters of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, free.


8 Chapters of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash — FREE

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You’ll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson “Conquer the Crash Collection” Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

You just cannot find better Independent analysis of the markets – I’ve been an EWI subscriber for years and although I don’t fully subscribe to their Elliott Wave theory I still value their research and analysis of the markets very very highly – The Hovis Trader

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

The great “inflated” expectations for gold, oil, commodities — and now stocks

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s Note: You can read the text version of this story below the video.

On January 21, one of the biggest financial lawsuits in recent history came to a costly end. The accused, ratings behemoth Standard & Poor’s, agreed to a $1.4 billion settlement for “inflating credit ratings on toxic assets,” thus accelerating and exacerbating the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Settlement aside, there is a far bigger issue here than business ethics or conflicts of interests, which is not likely to get a hearing in the court of mainstream finance.

Which is: The professionals who are supposed to assess investment risks are no better at it than you or I.

Case in point: Think back to November 30, 2001. The world’s largest seller of natural gas and electricity has gone from cash cow to dry bone. Its share price had plummeted 99%, from $90 to just under $1. YET– the company continued to enjoy an “INVESTMENT GRADE” rating.

The company’s name: Enron. Four days later, it filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Enron seems like a distant memory, but what about the subprime mortgage debacle? Moody’s rating service slashed the ratings of 131 subprime bonds due to higher than expected defaults, in July 2007 two years after the market for non-traditional mortgages had already turned.

Spot a trend here? The “experts” failure to anticipate huge trend changes in companies, and in the overall economy. In the first edition of his business best-seller Conquer the Crash, EWI president Bob Prechter wrote:

The most widely utilized ratings services are almost always woefully late in warning of problems within financial institutions. They often seem to get news about a company around the time everyone else does… In several cases, a company can collapse before the standard ratings services know what hit it.”

So here’s the question: What are the experts not seeing now that you and I need to prepare for?

What about gold? In 2012, with prices nearly reclaiming all-time high territory, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing campaign was supposed to keep the wind at gold’s back.

“Ben Bernanke has just offered gold investors a… gilded invitation to participate in the greatest secular bull market of our time.” (April 14, 2012, Motley Fool)

Then this happened:

The same goes for the 2008 peaks in oil and commodities — two more “safe-havens” that were supposed to benefit from the Fed’s money-printing campaign, but instead prices fell to lows not seen since the 2007 financial crisis.

So, that leaves the remaining outlier — equities, which have climbed to record highs. And, according to the experts, the path of least resistance remains up. A December 14, 2014 article in the New York Times:

“We don’t see a lot on the horizon that could derail the U.S stock market in particular.”

Our January 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist urges caution with this single chart of the S&P 500’s year-end valuations since 1927. Every major peak of the last 90 years landed well outside the normal range: 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007.

We believe the precarious placement of 2014 sends a similar message: “The stock market and the economy are not in a new multi-decade recovery as economists believe, but very late in a transition phase from boom to bust.”


Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Heard about DEflation?

Heres further detail of the Deflation time bomb over hanging us at this time

Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts

There’s more to deflation than falling prices

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.

Yet in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s headline says, “Deflation is Starting to Win.”

Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:

… the number of countries experiencing ‘lowflation’ has been steadily rising from 2011 (blue line). The eurozone tipped into outright deflation in December, with Germany, Britain and the US also seeing prices rise at near record lows.

The Telegraph, January 14

But as Prechter explains, falling prices are an effect of deflation.

Deflation is not a period of generally falling prices; it is a period of contraction in the total amount of money plus credit. Falling prices in an environment of stable money is indeed a good thing. In fact, in a real-money system, it is the norm, because technology makes things cheaper to produce. But when debt expands faster than production, it becomes overblown, then wiped out, and prices rise and fall in response.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2015

So a major debt buildup is a precondition of deflation. Do we see this today? The third edition of Conquer the Crash shows the answer.

Total dollar-denominated debt has skyrocketed since 1990. The upward trend turned slightly down during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but has since crept higher.

How fast and how far can this nearly $60 trillion in debt dwindle?

It’s instructive to review the collapse of the 1920s credit bubble.

On the left side of the chart, note how debt deflation needed nearly a decade to unwind.

Today’s mountain of debt is far higher than in 1929, yet our indicators suggest that the next debt deflation could unfold much more rapidly.

The third edition of Conquer the Crash provides 157 forecasts. Here are three:

  • Real estate values will begin to fall again, ultimately more than they did in the 1930s.
  • Hedge funds, mutual funds, money-market funds, managed accounts and brokerage accounts will go out of favor — many will go out of existence.
  • Financial corporations previously bailed out by the Fed and the U.S. government will fail again, as will new ones.

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.