4 Year – Next repeat?

This cycle nearly always arrives in OCTOBER.

The next hit is October 2018

I did mention this when it last hit in October 2014 – some 4 years aggggooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

With the exception of 1994 & 2002 – just look at how this cycle has arrived and the markets bounced many %

4yr cycle

the 2 years in question – 1994 & 2002 – were not void they just took a few more months to get going – they still eventually worked.

Lets PRETEND that 1994 and 2002 failed – so out of 9 trade potentials since 1982, 2 failed = 78% win rate – which is pretty damn good (In fact when you take this cycle back centuries the win rate is 90+%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make a note of it in your diaries – look back in 2019 to what happened in 2018 and specifically around October time.

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Well WHAT Happened?

For YEARS I had shouted about the relevance of 6/7th December 2016,

I really don’t need to speak anymore of it as the chart below tells you all that you need to know

By the way the chart is of an ETF that tracks the UK’s FTSE100 Index at a 5 X Leveraged rate (yes I do use this trading vehicle):

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80% in a few months ain’t that bad

What made the trade feasible?

  1. A Low was expected for the Time Cycle due on the 6/7th Dec 2016
  2. This Time Cycle had been forecast YEARS in advance and the outlook was ALWAYS to expect it to be a LOW
  3. Other confirming Indicators I look at were also signalling a low

The position was a high probability trade based on numerous confirming factors

Update to “Don’t do this too often” post

As EXPECTED

Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!

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S*** Happens

I also think it’s very important to show you examples of when things don’t work out quite how I wanted them to.

Most of the detail is on the chart below.

ALL my trading rules were in place for this trade on the 15th March 2017 – I nearly skipped the trade but decided to alter my stop position to make it worthwhile (usually my stop would be under the LOW of Monday 13th March, but I deemed the range of risk too much) Hence why I moved it up to the low of the 14th March.

Anyway – I was sat at my computer 8am awaiting the open – my trading account forces me to set an entry level and then a min of 1% range above that entry level – This sucker GAPPED open over that buy order level and the 1% range and it did not retrace to it that day = the trade was voided and cancelled without hesitation – I’ve missed out on profits and wasted part of a day tracking this one – for zilch!

The trade worked but without me on board – This stuff happens you just have to live with it.  Also you will have trades that take you in and then stop you straight back out again too! Part and parcel to trading baby.

The So-Called Experts will tell you risk is the most important factor – it is very important – but you can see I didn’t even enter this trade through absolutely no fault of my own, the Entry is JUST as Important as the stop and therefore RISK.

This is my THT Trampoline trading set-up – yet to be made available as I’m still writing the course!

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Now this one will make you smile but it makes my stomach churn just thinking about it – this happened very very recently and I’m still fuming about it:

  1. I’m transferring my pension fund  – complicated story but to be able to continue to trade it I had to transfer it – that process has taken months!  So I thought I’d be safe taking a trade seen as it had taken ages to process! How wrong was I!
  2. The chart below shows that I entered a position on this stock on the Green line (price and date) my stop was the red line less a couple of pennies
  3. The market went up then back down – on the 27th March 2017 my Pension company decided it would be OK to dis-invest this position from my fund as they were now ready to transfer it to my new pension provider! Why they didn’t transfer it in-species with the position still intact I will never know – fucking idiots! Yes I am complaining so we’ll see what happens
  4. You can see what the share thereafter did – without me on board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  5. It’s actually made about 6R – If risking 2% of account that is a return of 12% – you don’t need too many of them to make a decent return for the year!
  6. I cannot tell you that after years of doing this, just how mad, sick and upset looking at that chart knowing I was on board but someone else took me out of the trade – this one will stick with me for years!  It won’t affect my next trade but I’ll remember it!
  7. you see crap happens to us ALL – Professionals, Newbies and established Investors

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Update – TED stock

I think it’s really important to show you FAILED trades too.

If you remember based on the DTosc positions a rally was signalled – this happened but it was tiny.

This is why it’s not SAFE to just trade off basic things such as Indicators – they don’t always work out – now what you’ll have to do if this chart is of interest to you is to follow it on as it progresses.

The WEEKLY DTosc is in the bear OS zone and price will rally to some degree, which will be confirmed by the bullish reversals of the Daily DTosc – the real KEY in all of this is to not only have the Multiple Time Frame Indicator positions in unison but ALSO Pattern, price and time all in a healthy zone for reversal.

As mentioned in the previous blog post on TED – the weekly chart indicates an Elliott Wave pattern, whether that turns out to be correct we are months away from – but the pattern is BEARISH, HOWEVER,

Depending upon how you “see and look” at the Weekly chart you could also label that bullish too (not from an EWP point of view) – one thing is for absolute certain – one side will win – EVENTUALLY.

The point I’m trying to make here is DON’T get hooked on a particular outlook – once you do that you will be dragged down the path into a dangerous breeding ground of having to have the correct and right outlook on what the market will do – you do NOT have the power to do that!

As can be seen – My outlook based on the Indicator was WRONG – you’ll probably find that it’s now in the position I had hoped it was in previous for a decent rally, but its not guaranteed.

I wrote this post on Tuesday 4th April 2017 – but have scheduled it for publication Sunday 9th April 2017.

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Why (and How) I use Swing files

It’s ALL dead simple AND most Importantly COMMON SENSE – keep your trading as simple as possible!

  1. They give me a visual picture on the swings (as I determine them) of the marketplace
  2. They give me in an instant the direction of the smaller swing file AND the larger swing file  – this allows me to instantly work out whether a market is MIXED, BULLISH or BEARISH Instantly
  3. It allows me to SEE virtually Instantly whether a market is setting up one of my trading set-ups/methods
  4. It allows me to calculate Time and Price expectations based on PRIOR swings
  5. It allows me to SEE with a few clicks of the mouse the ENTIRE STATISTICS of the market I’m looking at
  6. I can match up TIMES of High to High, Low to Low, Low to High and High to Low to see quickly if there’s a tight range of TIME
  7. I can quickly and easily SEE Gann’s market formations (If any are forming!)
  8. I can quickly and easily see if there’s a pattern of rising lows or lower highs
  9. I trade lows and bottoms – It allows me to identify these quickly with the aid of an Indicator too

Lets see the Swing Files in action – Remember to get the info on the charts took me less than  30 seconds:

Instantly tell if a market is in a trading range or bullish/bearish

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It also Instantly shows you a “visual” gauge of the ACTUAL swings the market has made over X days/weeks/months/years

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I can calculate TIME from the swings in a number of ways:

Shown are the Dynamic Time Projection AND The TIME Rhythm Zone – both calculated in about 5 seconds from the swings shown on the chart – If the markets following similar time calcs as it did on prior swings then this info is invaluable.

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I can also do similar for PRICE

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I can look at the stats of the swings and work out the following:

Is there a particular day of the week the stock/market moves significantly up or down?

I can also see month stats too (no chart shown)

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I can also in seconds work out the % swings of the market for min / Average & Max swings

As you can see this markets average typical BULLISH swing was 5.4% and the DECLINES during a bullish UP phase maxed out at 6.3%

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However, during the BEARISH down phases the up phases averaged 2.8% whilst the down phases were 5.1%

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The Bright BLUE line = the MAIN UP or DOWN Trend as determined by the setting of the swing file – in this case it’s an automatic setting – but you could set it as say a 10% swing file – this means EVERY time the market moves up or down by 10% the line will follow

the Green UP and red DOWN lines are a short-term swing file again in this case automatic but it could be say a 4% swing file – which obviously would change every 4% move of the market.

The bright Blue governs the stats as to whether the market is considered bullish or bearish – so for example if the bright blue swing file line is pointing UP/BULLISH then  every GREEN UP/Bullish short-term swing file confirmation could be bought.

Obviously though – If you have a 4% swing file on and you buy then you’ve missed 4% of the move and if as in the instances of the charts above the average for that market is 5.4% then there’s not much left to profit from!

Here’s something you could consider – Shift the short-term swing file to the become the Intermediate swing file and create a bigger Intermediate swing file.

This then “removes” the short-term noise from the picture and gives more bang for your buck – Obviously it would help if you had some form of pattern recognition to identify trades

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So you can see and PROVE it – to yourself what the typical swings of the market have been in the past and roughly what they should be in the future – If you’re in a Bullish up phase on the higher % swing file and the markets pulled back in a decline on the smaller swing file and various other indications are suggesting a low is forming then the opportunity to establish long positions upon confirmation can be seriously considered and you could even calculate the potential up swing min/average/max including TIME when it might potentially end – ALL INADVANCE!!!!!!!!!!

This could also be used in conjunction with other timing methods you may use and pattern recognition such as Elliott Wave, Gann or whatever you prefer to use.

You could also add automatic dates and info to the swing highs/lows or both to see if there’s a typical cycle of TD’s or CD’s from low to low etc -which could be used to narrow timing down etc.

The bottom line is you have all the facts of what the market has previously DONE – those facts don’t not predict the future, but they do give you a pretty good indication of what “MIGHT” happen

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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks, ETF’s, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The Butterfly & Gartley Method

This one and it’s offshoots are in the generic trading community and you’ve more than likely come across it already .

You may even use it, you may have seen it and discounted it and you may have tried it and given up – Let me show you how to use it properly – The Hovis Trader way.

In the 1930’s a book was written by a man called Gartley – on page 222 he showed a trading set-up that has now become known as the Gartley 222 method – It also has variations to it.

I am certain the web is full of detail on this method, so I’m not going to explain all the traits of the set-up, if you want to that is up to YOU to do – link at the end.

Depending upon the price activity and form of the set-up it can be known as a BAT, CRAB, BUTTERFLY or straight-forward Gartley 222 pattern

The purpose of this post is to show you how I use this set-up method in my trading, as It’s not as the trading method was created (although I do trade the BULLISH trades when I see them)

Now the whole point of the set-up is to identify the ENDING part/zone and then prepare to take trades in the OPPOSITE direction (As usual Charts will detail content), to catch the longer term trade reversal.

The problem is this does not always happen! As this is trading, it does not happen 100% of the time I’m afraid!

However, if the set-up sets up, then the market offers you a chance of playing the game in the run-up to the target zone! THIS is my PREFERRED way to trade these BEFORE price action reaches the target zone!  I did say at the start that I’ve put my own mark on this method!

There’s time when I’ve reviewed a market, decided to trade it and THEN I’ve noticed that it’s in a Gartley/Butterfly position!  When you trade pullbacks this will happen as a natural process of trading pullbacks!

Now I know in the charts below some of the set-ups aren’t exact proper Gartley and Butterfly methods – I use my knowledge to trade when I see similar formations – I don’t work strictly to the exact methods – If this is new to you I would suggest that you do stick to the exact methods.

I only trade long, so I only take trades on potential BEARISH Gartley’s and I get in at point B and point C for Butterflies (see chart below) and point c for BULLISH Gartley’s

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http://harmonictrader.com/blog/2013/08/03/gartley/

Now If you’ve invested £20 into Robert Miners book “high probability trading methods” you will notice that these methods ALL fit within his fib price ratios for an Elliott Wave ABC corrective pattern – so you could just use Miners ratios and the ABC and you WILL pick these set-ups up naturally – keep it as simple as possible.

For the sake of £20 – I would urge you to get the book, read it, put it away for a few weeks, read it again, put it away and 1 week later get it out again, read it and test the methods on the market – thinking all the time about market form and reactions – If you focus on Elliott wave exactness then you will drive yourself insane, just apply the basic methods and you’ll win.  The methods in that book allow you to WIN even when WRONG on the formation forming!  In my opinion the book and Ganns basic methods are the real holy grail in the markets

I don’t care whether it’s a Bat, Gartley, Butterfly, Shark or a dog – all I’m bothered about is, Is it a high probability trading opportunity that if it works out as expected then makes me 3R+

Do not get hung up on these fitting perfectly – If you’re trading LONG – then you want to get in at the lows and see if the move works out as expected.

Disclosure:  I do refine my trades to increase the probability, which is NOT shown on the charts above, but if you own Miners book – HPTM – then you’ll of read it in there. This blog is for INFORMATION purposes only – trade at your OWN risk

S&P500 – REVIEW Friday 10th March 2017

Hi,

I’m writing this analysis of the S&P500 Friday evening 10th March 2017 as a basic review of the S&P500 market.

Detail on the charts – Basic analysis based on previous SWINGS of the market

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Based on basic time and price analysis what I’m saying is – we are at a juncture that is unclear, but that outlook might become much more clear as time passes.

Trying to guess every swing up and down of minor moves is a fools game in my opinion – REMEMBER both those charts are BULLISH – there is absolutely no information on those charts that suggest a bearish scenario! None what so ever.

WHAT I’m SHOWING you is that is IS POSSIBLE to gauge the markets most likely movement based on time, price and an indicator!

Only last WEEK I warned someone to be wary of a top forming – that has now HAPPENED

The KEY is to watch the Weekly high – If that gets taken out then everything swings back to the upside, if it’s not taken out and further lows are printed then we are in the situation of a possible sideways to down market for the next few weeks – we should find out next week who’s in power, the bulls or bears

UPDATE – Got it right so far

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Close of play Friday – changed the DTosc!

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Still waiting for the CRASH?

As I mentioned yeeeeaaaarrrrs agooooooo

I think you’re in for a very long wait.

The markets did within reason what I was expecting from as far back as 2012/13 – 4-5 years ago!

I think this is do or die for the Elliott Wave Method – again as mentioned on here back in 2012 or 2013 – they do not have any option but a massive crash – it’s already over extended (1st spouted waaaaay back in 1986 – yes 1986) then repeated in 2000, 2007 and most recently ALL the way from the 2009 bottom.

It Is NOT going to happen

Gann WAS AWARE of Ralph.N. Elliott and his method as they were around at the same time – but Gann never mentions it, I’m working on a method that is more advanced than Elliott Wave Principle – Gann knew that the market puts in more “waves” than 5 up and 3 down = 8 (there’s an extra few more waves) as I’ve NEVER been happy with Elliott Wave Theory in its current form.

Anyway, ALWAYS trade in the direction of the market and as you can SEE from the chart below since 2009 which way has the big thick arrow been pointing?

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At some point in time there WILL be a decent correction of significance – 15%, 20%, 25% etc and AS the growth of the market is greater than years gone by then so will any correction – A 30% correction @ 5,000 will have bigger looking swings than those 30% corrections @ 1000 – yet the % drops are likely to be similar.

Good luck

Ted Baker?

EVERY night I scour the FTSE350 Index for possible trades, once found I shove them into a prospect list on my charting software to review.

Sometimes the prospects are ripe and ready to place orders for the next mornings open – other such as this are what I calling “getting into position” this means their not quite fully formed as a trade but getting close.

There’s no guarantee these comply and often you just have to ditch the chart as the market failed to form as required – REMEMBER WE ONLY TAKE TRADES THAT ARE ULTRA HIGH PROBABILITIES.

Details on chart – I will update the chart going forward in later posts so that you can follow it’s progress or failure whichever it may happen to be.

The outlook is BULLISH purely down to the WEEKLY DTosc position as it is – that does not mean we trade now!

PS – This is purely for educational value, I have absolutely NO intention of trading this market – I just want to show you that if you find a pattern that repeats often in the markets then you can trade them should you wish – just like this one.

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Should this example/paper trade trigger to the long side as expected I will put the targets onto the chart and a potential way to manage the trade.

But first you HAVE to read the commentary on the chart below for an alternative view – one of them will work out which one?

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EDIT – I am aware that the EW count is on the WEEKLY chart and I’m talking about a trade on the DAILY chart – It is perfectly possible for this to happen – I will explain in full detail in a month or so