Well WHAT Happened?

For YEARS I had shouted about the relevance of 6/7th December 2016,

I really don’t need to speak anymore of it as the chart below tells you all that you need to know

By the way the chart is of an ETF that tracks the UK’s FTSE100 Index at a 5 X Leveraged rate (yes I do use this trading vehicle):

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80% in a few months ain’t that bad

What made the trade feasible?

  1. A Low was expected for the Time Cycle due on the 6/7th Dec 2016
  2. This Time Cycle had been forecast YEARS in advance and the outlook was ALWAYS to expect it to be a LOW
  3. Other confirming Indicators I look at were also signalling a low

The position was a high probability trade based on numerous confirming factors

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Time Cycle Due 6th December 2016 – Update

It is looking more and more likely that the Time cycle arrived EARLY on 4th November 2016. See chart below for details – there’s still a little time left for this to be proved incorrect but it’s getting tight – remember with long range cycles they have to have a good few weeks lee-way either side of the expected date.

HOWEVER, as the sudden explosive force the markets shown around the TC date it’s well and truly odds-on that the new UP cycle that we’ve been talking about and I’ve been counting down to every month for the past year has ARRIVED, which is why the markets have been propelling upwards with force.

The Nasdaq100 is slightly diverging from the Dow and S&P500

The WEEKLY and DAILY DTosc’s for the Dow and S&P500 have been BEARISH for a while now and PRICE is refusing to fall/decline significantly – this is a BULLISH outlook.

It is not out of the ordinary if those markets show further price gains – this is highly likely to be in unison with the WEEKLY DTosc becoming BEAR OS or BULLISH and the DAILY DTosc turning BULLISH

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The Nasdaq 100 also made a LOW on the 4th November 2016

I did say it could come in a 4 week period either side of the expected date AND that the low point would not necessarily be a major price low – the charts above support the expectation and you need to read the remaining info as this sort of info backs up the thinking – also note if you were expecting a major low then you’ve not understood things – The major LOW of this down cycle was 2009 (as mentioned years ago)

Look at the number of days from low to low in the 2 charts below!

Mid-Cycle LOW of the DOWN cycle to LOW of the END of the Cycle

Chart 1 = 1974-1982 (Down Cycle)

Chart 2 = 2009-2016 (Down Cycle)

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Dates highlighted by Stock Market Geometry

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Dates highlighted by Stock Market Geometry

The REASON why the charts look different at the end is because in 1982 the August low was the same cycle that arrived in August 2015, whereas the Dec 2016 Cycle arrived in 1981 – so this time around the cycles arrived in a DIFFERENT ORDER than in 1982

The chart below is to show you the effect of the Time Cycle [TC] on the FTSE100 – throughout this process the effects of all the TC’s have been more pronounced on the FTSE100

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Now on the chart below this is what I’ve had on one of my charts for a long time – The chart looks at the MAJOR turning points of the market over years and decades and is basically Pythagoras’s Theorem with the price range as the hypotenuse – This creates what’s known in engineering as a VECTOR – A Vector can pivot about its point of anchor and spin around 360 degrees (Didn’t W.D. Gann focus on the circle and 360 degs?) – If you take a Vector length and use it to draw a circle, the circle will create ARCS that can be used for both TIMING and PRICE levels (Blog post on that coming sometime in 2017) TIP – Not all Circles are centred at price highs and lows, the centre is often way out of the way unrelated to price/time until it becomes obvious the circle was cradling price and time (no examples in this chart BUT It is the feature of a future blog post in the pipeline)

On the chart is a list of results for PRICE when projecting out previous  Vectors – the vector of  the 2000 – 2003 CRASH when multiplied by the Square root of TWO (1.414)and then converted to a price level gives you 2080.87

The LOW of 4th November 2016 = 2083.79

3 points difference! (2.92 Pts to be EXACT)

So far this is the nearest hit as I use either tops or bottoms to calculate the vector to and from.

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Those figures on the chart were posted in a previous blog post too – I just didn’t show the chart (above)

Think about this – My previous post on TRIANGLES – Are you able to fit Triangles into a Cubic structure? (YES you can) – what IS a cube made from?

6 Squares that’s correct – Now in a square what is the DIAGONAL as a ratio?  =1.414

So if you took the 2000-2002 crash value 1028 – as the SIDE of a square then times that by 1.414 you get the DIAGONAL of a square and that is the 2009-2016 rally

A value of 1.43 is so close to being 1,414 that you can say that the rally from 2002-2007 is also the DIAGONAL of the 2000-2002 crash – there’s FIBONACCI growth cycle in there too!

So from the Crash cycle date of 24th March 2000 – BOTH the rallies have grown by a Root 2 (1.414) pattern

Again do not expect exactness – leeway has to be used.

You can see that I was looking for links in price levels that represented certain ratio’s that are found in GEOMETRY – Gann mentioned geometry in his courses.

If you go back decades you’ll find vector ratios that conform to the mathematical ratios of PI, PHI, Square roots of 2,3 and 5 and MUSICAL ratios AND other Square Roots

The Vector 1473 above is obviously the musical 5th (3:2)of the 2007-09 crash vector value of 985 – so the Price advance from 2002-2007 = 3 and the Price crash from 2007-2009 = 2, divide 3 by 2 = 1.5

I will at some point during 2017 put the long range Time Cycles onto a chart to watch for as future years pass.

I wrote this post a few weeks ago and was going to publish it straight away, but decided to hold on until it was fairly clear the allowable time for Dec 2016 TC had expired – I would say that the TC came early in November and that (as we have seen) the Cycle now in play is the UP cycle as forecast years ago – The expected pullback came in as a whimpering sideways (but bearish) market rather than a price decline/plunge

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the market is going straight upwards – it WON’T. – there should be (this year) a very decent correction to square out the price advance since 2009 – that correction can’t be assigned to the expected Dec 2016 TC as too much time has gone by now for the DEc TC to be relevant.

Price HAS to square itself out, as multiple TRIANGLES form and build the market upwards, sideways and downwards – REMEMBER the natural GROWTH of the market is upwards

I will publish this year the sub-cycles to watch to 2034 and I will publish some other cycles to watch – REMEMBER and this is very very important – The markets are not working out 2 Dimension movements, they are working out in 3/4 Dimensions, for that to be recorded onto a 2 Dimension price chart is IMPOSSIBLE UNLESS the movement of the markets are SQUARE ON to the chart (which is rare!) This is WHY you CAN’T just draw perfect squares and then project of that – it doesn’t work like that I’m afraid!  In the last chart all I’ve done is connected the high/low pivots which happen to make a square visually- that is NOT the square the market is making – the market crosses lots of squares that you can’t see.  You can then confirm with Mathematics when something has occurred.

 

Quick update to the Time Cycle due Dec 2016

Charts first and then commentary below them:

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In the USA charts above there IS a turn/low point in very early November 2016 – The FTSE100 is just visible!

The Time cycles that we’ve been waiting for COULD arrive that early – it is absolutely possible due to the size of the cycle BUT………a sideways trading market is not bullish and could constitute as the turn, however,

I’d be very very disappointed if that is the turn date though as it will have arrived with a little puff of air and not the expected decent plunge.

Notice how ALL the USA Weekly DTosc’s have just turned negative (Bearish) the Dow is maxed right out @ 100 and can’t sustain that forever, the UK FTSE100 is still bullish.

All the USA markets DAILY DTosc are Bearish – hence why markets were negative today – what we don’t know though is the extent of price on this bearishness.

If the market is going to turn it will do so with BOTH the Daily and Weekly DTosc’s being Bearish – this should happen this week – this again does not mean price will comply as IF price is going to move in sync with the larger time frame WEEKLY DTosc direction then it will do so either on the 1st or 2nd Daily DTosc bearish reversal, so we might have to wait for the 2nd turn!

If you’ve been watching my “Wedger” trade posts you’ll notice that I went LONG even when waiting for the possible decline – remember when you get a trade signal you trade it regardless of your opinions – we’ve NOT have a trade signal to the short side yet regardless of the time cycles arriving you NEED the market to confirm the decline and it’s NOT happened as of yet.

The NEW/UP Inflationary cycle has commenced though, as the December 6th 2016 date will be the point to project future cycles from.

There could be a valid reason in QE – if the markets fail to deliver the cycle decline we’re looking out for – If this cycle fails this time then it will be the 2nd time since 1792 – the last time was in 1860’s USA Civil war times when the government through in large amounts of money to rebuild (a bit like QE!).

Anyway regardless, there is nothing that can be done for a few weeks until the window/time zone for the cycle expires – this is the frustrating part of using cycles they don’t always come in bang on the day.

What I’m waiting to see is how the market reacts to the Bearish Weekly DTosc reversal – that should give some clues as to if the decline will be severe or poor

As I’ve always said you to “trade what you see, not what you think should/will happen”

Once again if the Nov 2016 low is the low – I’ll be really really shocked as that would be pathetic – we will know more as December passes

The key is to watch the weekly DTosc and the Daily bearish reversals – I wrote the bulk of this post this afternoon (UK time) and had to leave it to attend to something else – I notice the US markets closed down due to Yellen’s Interest rate hike.  The market have been high on expectation of QE since 2009, a rise in rates signals it all coming to an end right around the Time Cycle date, weekly and daily DTosc’s turning negative (bearish) the market is ripe to turn over – but that’s my call – it needs to be PROVED by price action

 

Start of the NEW UP/Inflationary 17 year cycle

Well after so long, this is it.

Welcome to the start of the NEW UP/Inflationary cycle – Remember this is a massive 16-18 yr cycle it might not come in exactly to the day – a months grace either side is perfectly acceptable for this cycle.

The world is likely to be still negative, the public definitely will be in no mood to forget the last 17 years as it’s led to false rally after false rally only to remain a flat affair.

But believe me the next UP cycle has begun – this coincides with the seasonal UP period from November -April so keep an eye out in the years that follow for around this period of time being an ULTIMATE LOW (Please note this does NOT have to a new major low) and KEY turning point from 2000 in the markets – Specifically the NASDAQ as this is the market of choice at present.

Now the market is not going to go straight upwards for the next 17 years!  But I bet you that in 2034* the market will be significantly high than what it is now – the market may take a few years to get going, or it may not – there is no way of knowing.

All the very best for the next 17 years

This will be the period that the buy and holder thinks they’re in control of Investing – the facts will be that the markets are just going up anyway and they’re piggy backing on that market direction and when the market turns down in 2034 they’ll once again get hit hard by the full on bear markets that will form the 17 year DOWN cycle!

Now once a LOW/BOTTOM point has been formed I will divulge the main cycle dates to watch for during the next 17 years.

These cycle dates will be key, some will work, others won’t so much, but they will be the major turning points for the next 17 years up and down – they will also be forming Gann’s Law of Vibration

*2034 – the 17 year cycle should actually form a double top the first top will be in 2032, down and then up to a final top in 2034 – the chart I’ll produce will contain all the key dates and expected directional outcomes

Just remember how many of the “popular” forecasters have been telling you to look for a turn in 2016 – the answer is NONE of them – I’ve been telling you for YEARS

Here’s a chart:

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Lots going on in this chart – let me explain – THINK about what I’m saying!

  1. The RED Time Cycle – although on the chart I started it from 1st Sept 1998 – the EXACT same results would have been hit with a start date 12th December 1914 – 1914!!!!!! This for a start is truly amazing
  2. The GREEN Time Cycle is the SAME as the RED TC ~BUT~ I’ve split the TC into harmonics of the RED TC – If you go down one more harmonic (not shown on chart) then the green cycle gets split and lands smack bang on 1987 crash – ANYWAY that’s not the point I wanted to make – look at the START of the GREEN Time Cycle in August 1981? To 2016 it is EXACTLY 144 degrees (This can be verified by counting 8 times the 18 degree GREEN Time Cycle on the chart! Now W.D. Gann said that the Square of 12 (144) was important didn’t he!  Not shown but I have on other previous charts, go BACK 144 degrees of the GREEN cycle from the 2009 LOW and you get the low of 1974! – this cycle is linked to Pythagoras!
  3. The PINK Time Cycle is another very reliable strong cycle that can be traced back decades – This shows the 60 degree harmonic of this powerful cycle from the 1987 crash LOW – 3 MAJOR hits out of 4 as can be seen on the chart
  4. They all converge early December – Remember we are looking for and ALWAYS have been looking for a LOWaround these dates – If the markets continue higher into these dates then expect some sort of plunge into LOWS
  5. I’m not religous at all – but in the bible ezekiel mentioned “Wheels within Wheels” this is a classic example of exactly that
  6. It should be blatantly clear from the price action on the chart that some structure is being BUILT by market action – you can see this by looking at the time period 1966-1982 too!
  7. following this it should also be clear that every major top/bottom is obviously some sort of major point of force in that structure – Gann said “Mathematics rule the markets”

THT

1 Month – JUST ONE Month to go

Countdown:

01 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

It’s very very very nearly over

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You’ll also know that EVERYTHING predicted to occur during a Deflationary Depression has happened:

  • Low Interest Rates
  • Panic’s
  • Stock Markets crashing more than once and with +50% corrections/declines – these started in 2000, 2007-09 was the MID cycle (expected) crash – not the start of things! If you thought 2007 was the start of things you’re 7 years behind the curve.
  • QE
  • Failure of the great “experts” of the Industry and Central Banks to PREDICT events (always reacting to events, never preventing them!)
  • Commodity extremes and panics
  • Deflating prices
  • Gold appreciating in price and demand
  • Big/Larger than normal levels of Unemployment from….
  • Businesses failing
  • Commodity price falls
  • You get the idea

The great Deflationary Depression started in March 2000 and ends December 2016 – People will NOT believe its about to end until well past its rally off its lows

Remember I’ve ALREADY published some key dates for you to watch out for over the next 17 years – some of those dates WILL be KEY market turning points UP or Down

Now in the market cycle that MATCHED this market cycle that is coming to an end – when the cycle ended and the new cycle started – the KOREAN WAR started – I have not carried out any further investigations into this as its not an area of priority, the thing to consider is that World WARS occur during the DOWN cycles (1860’s, 1914 & 1939) – but to be honest nowadays conflicts and wars are happening regularly – I’ve not sat down to see if there’s a correlation of any kind.

Syria is obviously an are of conflict on a major scale that has been going on as has Iraq, Afghanistan during this down cycle so they could all be pooled together as a major major event on the war front – If something NEW happens though around the Dec 2016 Time Cycle date then it will be highly likely that the Time Cycle and wars are linked somehow, if something occurs I will look into in the years ahead.

There is a very key date regarding WARS – 2029 – There should be a very major in-depth war involving the USA that either Starts, Ends or is in motion when 2029 arrives.

Again the Time Cycle that tells me this can be plotted back in time and it hits at very major military points of time for the USA

All the best to the Deflationary Depression, glad to see the back of you!!

Get ready for the benefits and conditions that accompany an Inflationary UP Cycle

2 Months to go

Countdown:

02 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle BEGINS

Think back to all the negative news of the past year and 17 years around the times of the market plunges.

Ok so lets have a quick look at what is arriving in December 2016:

  1. – We have the Major 18 year Time Cycle hitting on 6th Dec (Chart 2)
  2. – We have another Major Time cycle arriving – projected from the March 2009 LOW (Chart 1)
  3. – The other major 18 year cycle arrived 18th August 2015 so that is already in play (That’s what caused the August 2015 crash/plunge) (Chart 2) – Now its imperative to understand the Blue and Red cycles are intimately linked – EITHER the Red or the Blue cycle WILL start the turns for the 18 yr cycle – this mostly happens If/When the Red cycles arrives AFTER the Blue cycle, IF the Blue cycle arrives AFTER the Red cycle (as is happening NOW) then It’s highly likely that the Blue cycle turn date will turn things.
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Chart 1

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Chart 2

Time cycles2

Chart 3

Just for Information – Find on the chart 2/3 1974 – Notice the low point?, well if you projected the cycle from that exact low point using 144 (Gann’s square of 12) it would of given you a date of March 2009!  If you had known and plotted those dates/cycles to your charts you’d of known in advance whilst the entire globe were in panic mode and talking shares even further downwards, you’d of been waiting for the signs of a trend reversal and multi-month price appreciation!

PS – the square of 12 (144) does not always work, you have to know the conditions of when it works and when a different calculation works – a future time cycle can be projected using 144 from the 2009 LOW! that is due 2040’s and it should be another MAJOR ~MAJOR LOW point in price and a wonderful buying opportunity – more details to follow in the years ahead

 

 

3 Months to go

Countdown:

03 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

Starting to get prepared to take advantage of the turn

Capture

(more…)

4 Months to go

Countdown:

04 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

There is a Time Cycle due this month – related to the Square of 12 from 1981(ish)

I’ve not had time to produce a chart showing it – this cycle is dying out now and may or may not be effective.

Overall you are looking for the market to be declining into and around December 2016, by how much? It’s not known, it might be a little 10% correction or it may be a fairly heft drop – the thing is the market ought to bottom out December 2016 and start rising that when looked back on in years to come, you can say “That there (Dec 2016) was the turning point” – when comparing the 18 yr cycle points (start and termination)

5 Months to go

Countdown:

05 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle BEGINS

Remember if you apply science to the markets you WILL see the inherent order that runs through it

Well BREXIT happened!  I did mention the vague possibility a few years back in a post

The main concern is for the £ against the $ – that’s been worst hit and the $ has little to do with BREXIT!

 

 

6 Months to go

Countdown:

06 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle BEGINS

Triangulation points are:

  • 6/7th December 2016 (From 1st September 1998)
  • 13th December 2016 (From 12th August 1981)
  • 21st December 2016 (From 9th February 1966)
  • 13th December 2016 (From 23rd June 1950)

So we have a date range of 6-21st December for the Turning point to come in around – this is perfectly OK for a cycle of this size

Remember this cycle is 16-18  years in length, a cycle of that magnitude cannot be expected to hit every time to the day, some lee-way of a few weeks has to be allowed and that lee-way is either side of the date range given above.  That means this cycle could come early in November or late in January 2017

Once a turn is confirmed I’ll then produce the cycles to watch for throughout the entire new 17 yr UP cycle – this is likely to be in early 2017 for you.