Market Predictions – Medium term outlook

Welcome to Market predictions – Medium & Long Term outlook.

The aim of this page is to inform you of the possible turning points in the listed market below over the next few years.

This work is based solely on the findings and content of the Gann course I recommend.  So that you can see it’s applicability to the markets.

Very Important: Because the predictions on this page are based on medium-long term cycles, lee-way of upto 1 month needs to be given either side of the ideal date for turning points.  Unless otherwise stated in the commentary I will not be providing high or low projections – JUST the possible turning point date.

This page is intended for the true trader/investor, I’m afraid that a small minority of people in this business are simply crooks looking to rip-off what they can when they can, with this in mind this page will NOT give too much detail away, as I’m sure it will be copied and mis-used – this is another reason why I charge for my recommended Gann course provider, to take something back from those that are looking to rip-off this industry.

This is very very important to understand, know and think about – Depending upon when you are born your life will travel through numerous Time Cycles, the Time Cycles continue after you’ve died, all that is happening is you happen to be alive and experiencing the EFFECTS of the Time Cycles – Humans CANNOT change or affect the Time Cycles, our lives are affected by the good and bad effects that these Time Cycles throw out – it just DEPENDS when you happen to live through them and during your life regardless of which year you are born into, you WILL experience 2 UP and 2 Down cycles if you live to an average age.

Obviously you won’t be in the employment game for the first 18 years of your life so you have to ignore – for me I was born in 1975 so I was born right in the middle of the 1966-1982 DOWN Cycle, when the 1982 UP Cycle started I was only 7 and NOT financially in the “game”, in the mid 1990’s when venturing into the world of employment I was right in the middle of the 1982-2000 UP cycle and enjoyed good job prospects and Investment returns, that changed in 2000 when things changed and started to get tough for the 2000-2016 DOWN Cycle, the 2017-2032/34 Cycle is UP, that takes me into Retirement age at which point I shall be retiring in the next DOWN cycle so I’ll have to be very very careful with what is exposed to the markets as we approach that key date as I do not intend seeing my Investments fall in value “out of the blue”.

S&P500

Here’s a MONTHLY chart of the S&P500 to show you a Time Cycle from 1998.  Please note this Time Cycle can be projected (known dates) for ever.  This means that as long as the market resonates with this particular Time Cycle we can project it on our charts years in advance

I do “zoom” in to the Weekly chart further down this page so you can see the accuracy of this Time Cycle

Monthly

It is VERY important to notice that this Time cycle is NOT static, it alters in the duration between cycle dates.

The 1st blue line (24/03/1998) is a typo, it should be 01/09/1998 – the 24/03 refers to 1994 – I have to manually type in the dates in the DT software from another source, hence the typo – apologies, I will update the chart at some stage but it’s not critical and can wait a few years.

Here’s an updated chart of the S&P500 I did (only changing the 1998 date) in 2013 – I’ve added on future dates for you to be aware of as we approach them – This Time Cycle has been highly accurate for over 100 years.

1

The next date in the sequence  (not shown in the chart above) Is a CRUCIAL date, it arrives in the 2030’s and signals a period that traders and Investors need to be aware of for years after.

Here’s the WEEKLY charts

Remember the 1st BLUE line should be dated 1st Sept 1998 – which is the LOW of 1998 – my fault as these cycles in this software have to be manually entered and I cocked up on that 1st date! Human error eh.

Weekly 1998-2008

chart continued…..

Weekly 2008-2017

Looking at the chart BELOW:

I’ve projected another Internal/Smaller cycle from 1st September 1998 (Black Line) and another from the September 1998 LOW point – one of these points should force a turn that can easily be seen on the chart around one of the dates shown on the chart (Blue or Green Line) – this cycle does not have to be date exact

S&P500

Still referring to the chart ABOVE:  we don’t know with this Time Cycle if it will be a high or a low point – that can’t really be done with this cycle, but it does have a very hit rate and often moves the market around its dates – As usual its best just to watch it transpire as it might have a major impact (up or down) or a minor impact on the market – the key is knowing the cycle and seeing what it HAS done over decades, when you see that you can’t ignore its presence

UPDATE: – Absolutely spot on – look what the market did August 18th 2015 – forecast from a Time Cycle that hit in 1998 and advised to the public in MAY 2015!

Here’s a chart of another special cycle, this time displayed on the FTSE100 Index:

Time cycle

As you can see this particular Time Cycle is present around TOPS – It’s just triggered in January 2014, referring to my previous charts about 2014, it is a very high risk period of time in the following months from January 2014 – If the market takes a tumble do not be surprised.

Updated: Feb 2015 – from SEPTEMBER 2014 world markets have had major “Wobbles” with Oil and currencies crashing! – volatility came back to the markets during this time which was as expected from this particular cycle in its “Deflationary Depression” environment/cycle

At some point I’d expect this cycle to get out of phase, most likely after 2017 – I’ll need to review and look at it after that time.

Now you might be asking what about the 2000 TOP and the 2009 LOW – different cycles are responsible for those turning points, I will show you those cycles in due course.  6th March 2009 LOW has links to the Low of 1987 and the 1974 LOW

2009 low

!!!!!!I nearly forgot!  There are a few key Time Cycles (Not shown yet) that arrive THIS YEAR 2013 – hence why I’m bearish 2013-2016, in particular May or October time give or take a couple of weeks.

Here’s Why:

This Time Cycle is linked to the Time Cycle described above, it has repeated for over 100+ years and will continue to do so into the future.  This Time Cycle (TC) is signalling the weeks around 28th April 2013 to be cautious.  Given that the outlook for 2013-2016 should be down I’d be expecting the market to drop sometime around this TC – remember this TC is not accurate to the day so some leeway of a couple of weeks either side is req’d.  This obviously fits very well with a MAY 2013 turning date previously talked about!!!

Timed to absolute PERFECTION

In the months preceding May 2013 I had been calling for a potential high – this one came in bang on the DAY – so what?  The projection was made from 1966 top! This cycle comes in again March 2026 when it should cause a half decent reaction in the markets.

Here’s a chart of the FTSE100 Index in the months that have followed the May Time Cycle, this is a perfectly acceptable result, obviously the best result would have been a flat out market crash, but you can’t have them all!

New

For those that own my recommended Gann course providers work – you know his calls for the period May 20th-28th 2013! – Update: The market complied – sort of – update being compiled for you soon, see below for update AND chart

2013-2016-ftse100

Safe to say that in the FTSE100 Index a 3 year bear market followed the prediction, seen as the growth of the market hardly got anywhere during these past 3 years

Here’s an update blog post on the 2013 Time Cycle and what happened

On ALL charts, If you look towards the TOP, where the white page finishes, there’s a pale yellow box with LFR to the left of it – that box contains the DATE the charts have been created.  For weekly charts this shows the last full completed week, so in the chart above it shows Fri 15th Feb 2013, whereas I’m actually doing this chart on Tuesday 19th 2013 – if the chart was a Daily chart it would show the date to the day.  Anyway these potential turning points have been made and displayed BEFORE the projected dates – let’s see what happens.

My recommended Gann course found on the W.D. Gann page at the very least gives you the up/down cycles to expect from the stock market, it is very very easy to then project the likely pattern and years for the buy & hold investor (no software req’d for this), all you need is half a brain, pen and paper – even a calculator is not really needed as long as you can add up!

The buy & hold cycle referred to above is a different cycle to the one shown above in the charts, although they do share DNA, this buy & hold cycle can be traced backwards in TIME for over 200 years (The stock market was officially opened May 1792 = 221 years old) – The Gann course that I recommend shows you the market cycles that have worked in the past and that are working NOW and in the future.  Knowing these cycles would save the buy & hold investor a lot of pain, suffering and probably money over the years!

Here’s a very long-term prediction, details on the chart:

 

2026

The 2026 dates ARE still valid

Ok it looks as if my timing has been too soon for the chart above – I’ll keep this up here, because it will be interesting to see what actually happens around the projected dates in 2026 – BUT, for accurate projection’s as to a potential turning point in 2026 I need to project from the 2013 TOP – I’ll probably wait until sometime in 2014 to do this after a clear turn has happened.

OK, here’s another one time to perfection

This one was timed from the 1st September 1998 – self explanatory:

17.6 yr cycle

Again like ALL Time Cycles they REPEAT and this one has caused turns dating from 1933, 1968 (caused the Double Top of 1966/68), and my personal favourite it CAUSED the end of the 1966-1982 DOWN cycle and forced the market upwards from 1982 for a ravaging BULL market.

Take a look at the chart BELOW – I made this chart on 28th August 2015 (check out the date in the YELLOW box Top left of chart) – just look at the last box! Predicted the ravaging panic in the markets of the start to 2016 – I did put out a blog post somewhere about it.

The Time Cycle for that last red box is decades and centuries old and it still works!

This date is the October 2015 date shown in a chart below (pink TC line)1982-2017

Since March 2000 the USA and UK markets have been in a Deflationary Down cycle, the last UP cycle ENDED March 2000 and that is why world events and the markets have tracked sideways in a BEARISH fashion, people talk of an 1929 style/type event – it’s ALREADY happened! in 2000, all you have to do is look at the NASDAQ index chart during that period and you will SEE that it is very very very similar to market action of 1929-1932.

These Deflationary cycle periods also have common inner workings and therefore PREDICTABILITY! 

The current DOWN cycle ENDS 6th DECEMBER 2016 (mentioned on this site many times) and the new UP (Inflationary) cycle STARTS – the crux of this change will catch most people out, people are likely to be still reeling in a BEARISH outlook and have no idea of the change taking place – during BULL/Inflationary 17 yr cycles it’s a perfect environment to be a BUY and HOLD Investor – the LAST such period was 1982-2000 and the S&P500 Index rose 1400% during that time which = approx 80% AVERAGE annual gains (1400/18) NOT compounding!

Previous to 1982, the previous UP cycle was 1949-1966 and the DOW JONES rose approx 30% AVERAGE annual gains during that period – it’s very important to understand in 1982 when EVERYTHING turned UPWARDS – the stock market transgressed UP onto a HIGHER growth course, hence why swings nowadays are larger and why the growth % increased – at this stage I have NO concrete idea, but an well-formed educated guess tells me to expect the growth rate to be similar to that of 1982-2000 

My personal plan is to use a 2 x Leveraged S&P500 ETF contract (I’m based in the UK and ETF’s are still not that common or available compared to the USA) and just hold for 17 years, along the way I will trade the cycles within the 17 yr cycle too, to enhance returns.

Not advice, just Information – as applies to ALL the blog site.  Trade/Invest at your own peril

In due course I plan to copy over the charts in blog posts that detail the cycle dates from 2017 onwards onto this page – I’ve just not got round to doing it yet – Skim back through my blog posts on Time Cycles to locate the dates and information

Capture2

Capture1

Capture

4

you can see (chart above) that the market does not arrive exactly on the Time Cycle date, there’s a bit of lee-way required either side, but there is absolutely no doubt that this Time Cycle syncs with changes in the market – also see charts below as its the SAME Time Cycle

3

2

1

Just how many HITS since 1987!

2017-2034 cycle dates

Note on the chart ABOVE that the RED Time cycle arrives once again BEFORE the BLUE Time Cycle circa 2034- Be prepared for a change of trend when the RED cycle is reached in 2033 and then another in 2034 (The BLUE Time Cycle governs overall market direction of the UP/Down cycle sequence buts its the RED Time Cycle that makes the market shift). The last time this happened was the market crash of 2015

In the chart Below the LAST PINK TC line is the RED box in a chart above – this cycle just like the others have repeated for centuries, these are just the past few showings!

Time cycles2

The BIG picture from 1962

1

This one is VERY VERY Important

Here’s a basic summary of the Time Cycles in the charts just above:

  1. The BLUE Time Cycle is the most Important – it DRIVES the USA Market – these are the START/END dates for all cycles
  2. The BLUE Time Cycle rules all the other TC’s within it – the BLUE Time Cycle often moves the market BUT if the RED Time Cycle is not in Sync then the BLUE TC will only have a mild effect
  3. When the RED TC arrives that is what causes trend changes – take 1966-1982, notice how in 1966 BLUE TC arrived but RED TC came in 2 years after.  1981 BLUE TC started but RED TC did not arrive until 1982 – that caused the bull run from 1982-2000
  4. in 2015 RED TC arrived BEFORE BLUE TC – RED TC caused the 2015 Crash/Panic (It does not have to be Tops and Bottoms) – it will be interesting to see what the effect is when BLUE TC arrives in DEC 2016
  5. BLACK TC – this cycle always comes mid cycle between the 2 BLUE TC’s of a DOWN/Deflationary cycle – it is ALWAYS during a DOWN cycle
  6. GREEN TC – opposite to the BLACK TC – this always occurs during an UP/Inflationary cycle period and it triggers the LAST major upwards surge of the market into BLUE and RED TC’s – ALWAYS during the UP cycles – look back @ 1924-1929! GREEN TC hit in 1924 too (The VERY same TC)

These ARE the main cycles that should cause a flutter in the stock markets in December 2016 – I put out a blog post on this on 6th Dec –

Red Time Cycle projected from 1st Sept 1998 can be projected from 12th December 1914 – yes 1914 – and would obtain the same results, This TC is based on the Square of 12 (144) which when converted into circle creates a GOLDEN Triangle

Green Time Cycle is basically a harmonic of the RED TC – just put it on the chart for you to SEE how accurate that one is 2 – if you drill down one more harmonic level then this green cycle also lands smack bang on 1987!

Pink Time Cycle projected smack bang on the LOW of 1987, this cycle stopped 2003/2009 dead in its tracks as well as 1987

capture

It is evident that 6/7th DECEMBER 2016 Time Cycle arrived on 4th NOVEMBER 2016 (EARLY) by one month – I did say to look for this cycle either side of the exact date by a few weeks – ALL the pessimistic economic data that has dogged the world for the past 2 decades should now start to ebb away as more and more positive economic results/data are reported in the next 2 decades ahead

The 2016-2034 UP (Inflationary) Cycle

Here’s a complete and utter no-nonsense breakdown of the Key Time Cycles for the period 2016-2034

Watch this space in 2017 as I’m starting to think about putting it all together now for you

The 4 year Cycle

Every 4 years this cycle arrives – since records are available from 1792 this cycle has a 90+% success rate – the key characteristics are:

  1. It usually arrives in OCTOBER
  2. It usually produces +15% gains very fast thereafter
  3. As you can see on the chart below it’s highly reliable
  4. Trailing a stop up at the last major Swing Low would have seen you good

4yr cycle

 

Permission to reproduce any of this page is NOT granted or authorised

 

%d bloggers like this: