• Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 277 other followers

  • Quote

    "It doesn't matter whether you want the markets to rise or fall - they sing to their own tune and if you're not listening to the markets tune your money is at stake" The Hovis Trader
  • Archives

  • Categories

Time Cycles – Revised and Updated

Here it is – the Revised Time Cycles for this current 17 UP cycle

I’ve shown and left DEC 2016 TIME CYCLE chart as the tweaks only cause a months sway backwards for most cycles (not all though!) The really big cycles haven’t been tweaked as they should hold their own

There were a couple of date errors on the DEC 2016 chart that I’ve updated (USA date format to UK date format was to blame and my mind going fuzzy at all the dates!)

As you can see so far the TC’s have worked a treat projected from 4th Nov 2016 rather than Dec 2016 date

I’ve also updated the Market Predictions page to reflect these updates

Overall from 4th Nov 2016-2034

 

Overall from 2nd Dec 2016-2034

Stay Safe

THT

Market Outlook for 2020/2021

Hi All,

I forgot to publish this here – I posted it on Facebook to a group when asked out of the blue (hence the professional artwork!) and completely forgot – Apologies!!!!!!!

The date in the YELLOW box top left shows you when I created this chart pic

This is my favoured market direction for the next 12 months – I might be utterly wrong but I’m thinking that the market is going up (It has been doing this)  then for the rest of the year just sideways to down with the emphasis on the bearish side

Not sure if a new low will occur – that’s above my pay grade I’m afraid!

But I’m thinking that for the next year or so we are not going to be doing too much

I will be producing some analysis in the coming months on the next couple of Time Cycles that are due in the next couple of years

242

Stay Safe

THT

Expanded view of the Feb/March 2020 Time Cycle

This IS the EXACT same Time Cycle that I talked about in the previous blog post

This post is to SHOW you the importance of watching them:

The LAST UP Time Cycle (17 yr duration) was from June 1981 to Sept 1997 – however the top in 2000 came because of the Time Cycle that started in August 1982 and ended in 2000 – Hence the 1982-2000 Bull market

I’m showing a sequence through the dates for you to see – the charts are WEEKLY charts throughout 1981-1997

Remember these cycles do not “perform” to the day timing, there has to be some lee-way built in around them to some acceptable degree – it might be a week out or it might be 4 weeks out – use some common sense and you’ll see the beauty of Time Cycles

Chart 1: Below shows you the start date that the Time Cycle is projected from and it’s 1st date – you can see what happened……….(the NEXT chart is the one to focus on!)

Typo Alert in the chart below – the date of the START of the Cycle is 25th June 1981 – NOT 1982 – apologies

25th June 1982 sequence - Chart 1

Chart 2: Shows you the same TC which includes 1987 – Look, look, look! (That does not mean the market will exactly like the market did following 1987 TC)

25th June 1982 sequence - Chart 2

Chart 3:

25th June 1982 sequence - Chart 3

Chart 4:

25th June 1982 sequence - Chart 4

Chart 5: ends the sequence

25th June 1982 sequence - Chart 5

Chart 6: Shows the whole sequence on a monthly chart

25th June 1982 sequence - Overall cycle

Chart 7: Now this restart the sequence from the CURRENT UP 17 year Time Cycle

4th November 2016 - Cycle projections

Chart 8: As you can the market did not fall out of the blue in Feb 2020 – this is most likely the 1987 equivalent drop that most UP cycles have in them

4th Nov 2016

I will when I have the time available – update the market predictions page with the cycles calculated from Nov 4th 2016 rather than 2nd Dec 2016 so that we can be accurate going forward

I will be publishing these charts to the Market Predictions page individually too

Cycles get complicated when you piece them all together as there’s numerous dates flying around

Keep your Trading/Investing simple – just trade ultra high probability set-ups/methods and you can make easily 25%+ per annum – regardless of what Time Cycle is due

These set-ups show up regardless of time cycles, you don’t need to understand or know what the market might due with a Time Cycle date – if you are trading/Investing smartly then you will have safe guards in place to stop you out

Remember a stock market stock index, forex market, commodity market or a simple share/stock should produce swings that allow you to take out 5-10%+ multiple times throughout a year 

Tuesday 7th April 2020 – I had multiple buy signals for my THT Trampoline method across numerous markets – some worked, 1 didn’t the net result was in 1 day a 25% net return – cashed out in profit, wait for the next opportunity when it shows up!

Now what I will do is simple wait until a market gets into a similar position or another one of my ultra high probability set-ups and then I’ll take the trade again – REGARDLESS OF WHAT TIME CYCLE IS HAPPENING

I would still do what I do trading wise if I did not know about Time Cycles – for me the Time Cycles are confirmation of my knowledge of them, NOT something to trade – I just like to know when the market could be a bit volatile and prone to bigger swings than normal

Stay Safe 

THT

 

Internal Cycles you should always watch

I don’t post much about these cycles as I’ve never found they have much predictive powers but they often confirm turns and twists in the market

I’m not revealing the source of the cycles but they are varying lengths and varying cycles of significance to the markets

Market for the charts shown is the NASDAQ100

The cycle START date is 4th November 2016 on BOTH charts

Remember years ago I published posts of the significance of Dec 2016? Well it turns out that the cycle arrived 1 month early (as is entirely permitted)  and for these cycles the fit is best from 4th Nov 2016 not the Dec 2016 date

Again all I use these cycle dates for is visual only – APART from the one that landed 26th Dec 2018 – That IS a trend changer cycle that you can trade with often – I just like to sit and watch these Internals in wonder if the market bounces off them. The cycle from Nov 2016 IS the EXACT same cycle that landed in DEC 2018!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and I’ve already shown the previous decades turns of that particular cycle! I will in due course publish the cycle throughout the next 14 years for reference as we can see Nov 2016, Dec 2018 were trend changers! – This cycle was also PRESENT at the March 6th 2009 LOW – to the DAY, so you can see its importance!

249

I’ve reversed the colour coding from chart above to the chart below – for the reason of ease and quickness when running the cycles on the software – so the cycles shown below are not the same colours as the ones in previous charts!

250

Remember this chart:

224

The chart above was projected from the presumed DEC 2016 Time Cycle date – which is fine BUT

Price started the reversal on 4th November 2016 – 1 month earlier – so this date is Important and I’ll need to recalculated the major cycles from that base date too (A nice little job for me to do!) When I do this I’ll post a post and also save the charts to the market prediction page as well.

There’s only a month time wise but we’ll see which date the market has sync’d to as time progresses – see this chart below of the Time Cycle shown above but projected from 4th November 2016!!!!!!

251

As you can see it’s pretty clear that Nov 2016 could be the anchor date – we’ll know as more data is added and the next couple of TC dates arrive – sorry but its a wait and watch game

For those more astute out there – you will notice that from 4th Nov 2016 anchor point the 26th Dec 2018 TC LOW (shown in the charts above) to the HIGH in the chart directly above (different TC’s) we have a Low to High Sequence

I will be watch very very closely to see if there’s any similarities from this point onwards

Enjoy | Stay Safe | Beat the virus

THT

 

The 15th March 2020 Time Cycle

Well, well well………………………….

It’s been an eventful few weeks on the markets hasn’t it!

As published waaaay back in June 2017, we’ve been in the zone for the March 15th 2020 Time Cycle due date

CHARTS SAYS IT ALL REALLY!

224

Then this happens:

245

Not all these cycle dates will move markets – but some of them will, I’d rather know well in advance when the market could become a little bit “iffy”, rather than not knowing at all

I have a personal opinion on market outlook for the rest of the year based on a couple of differing factors – will post April/May time 2020

I also have some other interesting stuff that I need to post as it’s important to the Time Cycles Analysis – Watch this space next few weeks

In the meantime, all the best and good luck

The HOVIS Trader

REMEMBER: 

These Internal cycles are not exact date specific, they have a tolerance of + & – 3/4 weeks around the actual exact cycle date published

It pays to be aware of potential market sensitive points/dates/zones 

The BIG Time Cycles drive the whole show, never lose sight of that

This means you have to trade/Invest according to a plan that you have for yourself

It does not mean that the cycles cause price to rally/fall into the next published cycle date – that just does not happen with these internal cycles (the big cycles it does though!)

We are looking for potential increased market volatility in these Time Cycle zones (Which is exactly what we got on this one!) – It is IMPOSSIBLE to know for certain whether a TC will be a high or low

I’m not revealing the actual cause of the cycle

I trade according to my trading methods and set-ups, if they show up i trade, if they don’t I don’t – I do not trade the cycle date(s) blindly with a buy or sell order, a trading set-up of some kind acceptable to me has to appear for me to get involved – There’s a few spanners out there who think I can predict price action on the exact cycle date and make a killing! It doesn’t quite work like that in reality

 

 

 

4 Year – Next repeat?

This cycle nearly always arrives in OCTOBER.

The next hit is October 2018

I did mention this when it last hit in October 2014 – some 4 years aggggooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

With the exception of 1994 & 2002 – just look at how this cycle has arrived and the markets bounced many %

4yr cycle

the 2 years in question – 1994 & 2002 – were not void they just took a few more months to get going – they still eventually worked.

Lets PRETEND that 1994 and 2002 failed – so out of 9 trade potentials since 1982, 2 failed = 78% win rate – which is pretty damn good (In fact when you take this cycle back centuries the win rate is 90+%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make a note of it in your diaries – look back in 2019 to what happened in 2018 and specifically around October time.

Start of the NEW UP/Inflationary 17 year cycle

Well after so long, this is it.

Welcome to the start of the NEW UP/Inflationary cycle – Remember this is a massive 16-18 yr cycle it might not come in exactly to the day – a months grace either side is perfectly acceptable for this cycle.

The world is likely to be still negative, the public definitely will be in no mood to forget the last 17 years as it’s led to false rally after false rally only to remain a flat affair.

But believe me the next UP cycle has begun – this coincides with the seasonal UP period from November -April so keep an eye out in the years that follow for around this period of time being an ULTIMATE LOW (Please note this does NOT have to a new major low) and KEY turning point from 2000 in the markets – Specifically the NASDAQ as this is the market of choice at present.

Now the market is not going to go straight upwards for the next 17 years!  But I bet you that in 2034* the market will be significantly high than what it is now – the market may take a few years to get going, or it may not – there is no way of knowing.

All the very best for the next 17 years

This will be the period that the buy and holder thinks they’re in control of Investing – the facts will be that the markets are just going up anyway and they’re piggy backing on that market direction and when the market turns down in 2034 they’ll once again get hit hard by the full on bear markets that will form the 17 year DOWN cycle!

Now once a LOW/BOTTOM point has been formed I will divulge the main cycle dates to watch for during the next 17 years.

These cycle dates will be key, some will work, others won’t so much, but they will be the major turning points for the next 17 years up and down – they will also be forming Gann’s Law of Vibration

*2034 – the 17 year cycle should actually form a double top the first top will be in 2032, down and then up to a final top in 2034 – the chart I’ll produce will contain all the key dates and expected directional outcomes

Just remember how many of the “popular” forecasters have been telling you to look for a turn in 2016 – the answer is NONE of them – I’ve been telling you for YEARS

Here’s a chart:

capture

Lots going on in this chart – let me explain – THINK about what I’m saying!

  1. The RED Time Cycle – although on the chart I started it from 1st Sept 1998 – the EXACT same results would have been hit with a start date 12th December 1914 – 1914!!!!!! This for a start is truly amazing
  2. The GREEN Time Cycle is the SAME as the RED TC ~BUT~ I’ve split the TC into harmonics of the RED TC – If you go down one more harmonic (not shown on chart) then the green cycle gets split and lands smack bang on 1987 crash – ANYWAY that’s not the point I wanted to make – look at the START of the GREEN Time Cycle in August 1981? To 2016 it is EXACTLY 144 degrees (This can be verified by counting 8 times the 18 degree GREEN Time Cycle on the chart! Now W.D. Gann said that the Square of 12 (144) was important didn’t he!  Not shown but I have on other previous charts, go BACK 144 degrees of the GREEN cycle from the 2009 LOW and you get the low of 1974! – this cycle is linked to Pythagoras!
  3. The PINK Time Cycle is another very reliable strong cycle that can be traced back decades – This shows the 60 degree harmonic of this powerful cycle from the 1987 crash LOW – 3 MAJOR hits out of 4 as can be seen on the chart
  4. They all converge early December – Remember we are looking for and ALWAYS have been looking for a LOWaround these dates – If the markets continue higher into these dates then expect some sort of plunge into LOWS
  5. I’m not religous at all – but in the bible ezekiel mentioned “Wheels within Wheels” this is a classic example of exactly that
  6. It should be blatantly clear from the price action on the chart that some structure is being BUILT by market action – you can see this by looking at the time period 1966-1982 too!
  7. following this it should also be clear that every major top/bottom is obviously some sort of major point of force in that structure – Gann said “Mathematics rule the markets”

THT

1 Month – JUST ONE Month to go

Countdown:

01 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

It’s very very very nearly over

4

You’ll also know that EVERYTHING predicted to occur during a Deflationary Depression has happened:

  • Low Interest Rates
  • Panic’s
  • Stock Markets crashing more than once and with +50% corrections/declines – these started in 2000, 2007-09 was the MID cycle (expected) crash – not the start of things! If you thought 2007 was the start of things you’re 7 years behind the curve.
  • QE
  • Failure of the great “experts” of the Industry and Central Banks to PREDICT events (always reacting to events, never preventing them!)
  • Commodity extremes and panics
  • Deflating prices
  • Gold appreciating in price and demand
  • Big/Larger than normal levels of Unemployment from….
  • Businesses failing
  • Commodity price falls
  • You get the idea

The great Deflationary Depression started in March 2000 and ends December 2016 – People will NOT believe its about to end until well past its rally off its lows

Remember I’ve ALREADY published some key dates for you to watch out for over the next 17 years – some of those dates WILL be KEY market turning points UP or Down

Now in the market cycle that MATCHED this market cycle that is coming to an end – when the cycle ended and the new cycle started – the KOREAN WAR started – I have not carried out any further investigations into this as its not an area of priority, the thing to consider is that World WARS occur during the DOWN cycles (1860’s, 1914 & 1939) – but to be honest nowadays conflicts and wars are happening regularly – I’ve not sat down to see if there’s a correlation of any kind.

Syria is obviously an are of conflict on a major scale that has been going on as has Iraq, Afghanistan during this down cycle so they could all be pooled together as a major major event on the war front – If something NEW happens though around the Dec 2016 Time Cycle date then it will be highly likely that the Time Cycle and wars are linked somehow, if something occurs I will look into in the years ahead.

There is a very key date regarding WARS – 2029 – There should be a very major in-depth war involving the USA that either Starts, Ends or is in motion when 2029 arrives.

Again the Time Cycle that tells me this can be plotted back in time and it hits at very major military points of time for the USA

All the best to the Deflationary Depression, glad to see the back of you!!

Get ready for the benefits and conditions that accompany an Inflationary UP Cycle

2 Months to go

Countdown:

02 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle BEGINS

Think back to all the negative news of the past year and 17 years around the times of the market plunges.

Ok so lets have a quick look at what is arriving in December 2016:

  1. – We have the Major 18 year Time Cycle hitting on 6th Dec (Chart 2)
  2. – We have another Major Time cycle arriving – projected from the March 2009 LOW (Chart 1)
  3. – The other major 18 year cycle arrived 18th August 2015 so that is already in play (That’s what caused the August 2015 crash/plunge) (Chart 2) – Now its imperative to understand the Blue and Red cycles are intimately linked – EITHER the Red or the Blue cycle WILL start the turns for the 18 yr cycle – this mostly happens If/When the Red cycles arrives AFTER the Blue cycle, IF the Blue cycle arrives AFTER the Red cycle (as is happening NOW) then It’s highly likely that the Blue cycle turn date will turn things.
4

Chart 1

1

Chart 2

Time cycles2

Chart 3

Just for Information – Find on the chart 2/3 1974 – Notice the low point?, well if you projected the cycle from that exact low point using 144 (Gann’s square of 12) it would of given you a date of March 2009!  If you had known and plotted those dates/cycles to your charts you’d of known in advance whilst the entire globe were in panic mode and talking shares even further downwards, you’d of been waiting for the signs of a trend reversal and multi-month price appreciation!

PS – the square of 12 (144) does not always work, you have to know the conditions of when it works and when a different calculation works – a future time cycle can be projected using 144 from the 2009 LOW! that is due 2040’s and it should be another MAJOR ~MAJOR LOW point in price and a wonderful buying opportunity – more details to follow in the years ahead

 

 

3 Months to go

Countdown:

03 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

Starting to get prepared to take advantage of the turn

Capture

(more…)