4 Year – Next repeat?

This cycle nearly always arrives in OCTOBER.

The next hit is October 2018

I did mention this when it last hit in October 2014 – some 4 years aggggooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

With the exception of 1994 & 2002 – just look at how this cycle has arrived and the markets bounced many %

4yr cycle

the 2 years in question – 1994 & 2002 – were not void they just took a few more months to get going – they still eventually worked.

Lets PRETEND that 1994 and 2002 failed – so out of 9 trade potentials since 1982, 2 failed = 78% win rate – which is pretty damn good (In fact when you take this cycle back centuries the win rate is 90+%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make a note of it in your diaries – look back in 2019 to what happened in 2018 and specifically around October time.


Update to “Don’t do this too often” post


Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!



Original post here: https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/sp500-review-friday-10th-march-2017/

Absolutely SPOT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Once again I’m proving to you that it is very possible to predict price and time simply

Yes we can use cycles and fancy advanced methods – but to start off with we can use the price and time basics of previous swings, throw in a decent accurate Indicator and you then have a potential high probability set of items that can be used to profit from the markets

By the way the HIGH was confirmed yesterday when price CLOSED below the previous swing low.

So what we now have on our hands is either:

  1. Prices are going to crash
  2. Prices might have a major, Intermediate or minor correction and then resume upwards to new highs

Unless you know EXACTLY where we are in the market (and nobody does) then you just have to WAIT.

I don’t know what it is but the past month a number of Elliott Wavers have come into contact with me – they gave up counting waves a few weeks ago as it became unclear what wave number the market was in! You can’t just give up naming waves! If you know the market is moving in Elliott Waves then you should have wave count – the fact that, that got blown out of the window tells you everything you need to know about how accurate EWT really is!

Gut Reaction?

Well my gut reaction is that this is just a temporary minor or Intermediate level correction the onus is still BULLISH so you have to expect new highs until a bear market is seen – It could just track sideways to!

It really is this simple! There’s no need to over complicate things

When will Bank Base Rate Rise?

I continually hear people from all over the place talking about Bank Base Rates.

You know they type of conversations “When do you think it will rise?”, “It’s been low for so long, don’t they [the bank] know what damage its doing to my income”…..etc

Well of course they are correct, low rates affect many people differently and they have been going on since 2008 now which is a long time.

Or is it?


Social Events – Part TWO

Bear-Market Stress is Weakening Society

We published our disease/epidemic study in the May
and June 2009 inaugural issues
of The Socionomist. We
concluded that for as far back as history provides data, social mood
appears to have dramatically influenced the health of societies.

As it happened, our study was published near the bottom of a Primary-degree
bear market and the onset of the Swine Flu pandemic. From an Elliott
wave perspective, an even larger-degree trend toward negative social
mood began a decade earlier, in March 2000, when the S&P 500 Index
was some 19% higher than it is today. Elliotticians label this trend
“Supercycle” degree, which is two degrees larger than the
Primary-degree bear market mentioned above.

Society has been expressing this larger trend toward increasingly
negative social mood through a variety of health-related symptoms.
For example, our 2009 study said,

Stress–born of the same fear that drives stock prices lower,
tanks economies and escalates foreclosures–also increases the risk
of disease. … Foreclosure–being forced out of your home–is one
of the most disruptive and stressful financial calamities that a family can suffer.1

Two years later in its October 2011 article, “Foreclosures Are
Killing Us,” The New York Times echoed The Socionomist: