Do you use or look at SENTIMENT readings?

You should, they can be a good warning for buying opportunities or when the market is over-heating.

You can find out the data at Barrons –¬†http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-investorsentimentreadings.html

Check out my THT Market Basics page for details on this and the levels that warrant closer inspection – details ARE within that page

The CURRENT market at time of writing 22nd February 2017 is fast approaching the lower levels of the zone to be cautious

All the best

THT

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Making Predictions

We all know that making predictions about the market is a fools game and I’m a big fool!

I know and understand that the market can and does do just about anything it wants and we have no way of knowing for sure what it will do, however, that does not stop me from trying to predict both TIME & PRICE levels for the market to hit/meet.

Hell man, I’ve even put my cards on the table and started to publish Time Cycles on my “W.D. Gann – Medium Term Market Predictions” page – this is for MAJOR turning points in the market and I’ve more to add to that page too in time.

Anyway here’s a chart that captures a lot of detail and information:

S&P500

It solely depends upon your thoughts and beliefs about the markets – if you think (as I do) that most price swings are linked somehow then these projections can work for you, especially when you have a fairly accurate momentum indicator that helps back up the case.

Let’s have a look at the time aspect – using the exact same parameters for Price, but on the Time axis – I’m not as convinced on Time Cycles from previous swings – but they can be useful:

S&P500

Trailing a stop up during this time would not have hurt.

Now for something that I’ve just spotted and remembered:

S&P500 1

The chart above shows you how using Robert Miners Fibonacci Time Ratio’s (mentioned in his book) the BOTTOM on the correction in Nov 2012 could have been projected and anticipated 2 months in advance!!! – from the high in Sept 2012.

Add in the DTosc Bullish reversal and you have a pretty sound reason to trade to the long side, even though the minor trend is down.  What other aspect would of helped?

Fibonacci or Gann levels [not displayed/shown].  I can tell you that the Nov 2012 LOW sat bang on the 62.5% Gann Retracement level – for Fib users price came close to the 61.8% Fib level!

How much more confirmation do you need that a potential turning point was at hand?

This is an EASY one, markets aren’t usually this clear-cut, but occasionally they are, as above.

To any new readers/subscribers  who read Miners book or have read it, NO I don’t use Elliott Waves or EW counts – I’m very aware of EW but I don’t use it, the experts at Elliott Wave have since 1986 been calling for the top of the market, if they can’t do it with high degree accuracy I sure can’t – I personally think that the next 3 years are do or die for Elliott Wave as a concept, their counts must see the 2009 lows taken out by a massive amount, if that fails to occur then the overall structure their counts are suggesting goes on the scrap heap.  It’s got to the stage now where EW is right or wrong.

Hope it helps

The Hovis Trader

Top on it’s way?

A Coy Public Suddenly Gets Cozy with Stocks

The last burst of market optimism?

By Elliott Wave International

When do investors love stocks the most?

The simple answer is: After a long-term bullish trend
has matured
.

The S&P 500 recently stood near 5-year highs. And speaking of “recent,” consider this investor behavior.

Equity mutual funds recorded the second-highest inflows on record in the first week of the year. … About $22 billion flowed into equity funds around the world.

Bloomberg, Jan. 11

A red flag? Not to a well-known market newsletter writer quoted in this CNBC (1/11) headline:

Money Pours Back in Stocks: ‘Have to Take This as Bullish’

Well, investors were also bullish on Oct. 9, 2007, just before the Dow’s all-time closing high. Just days earlier (the third week of September 2007), equity fund inflows hit an all-time record of $23 billion. Look at the chart.

So: Almost as much money just went into stock funds as what occurred just before the Dow’s all-time closing high.

Far from being bullish, the September 2007 Elliott Wave
Financial Forecast
provided subscribers with this warning:

Stocks remain at the forefront of a long decline.

As we know, that warning came just in time. October 2007 began the worst bear market since 1929-32.

And now, stock fund inflows provide evidence of similarly
high levels of market optimism. The facts speak for themselves:
the public is jumping into stocks now, after being
reluctant to do so for most of the uptrend since March 2009.

Extreme opinions, shared widely, constitute the single most reliable indicator of an impending change of direction for a market. If virtually everyone is thinking one way, they have already acted, so the market has extremely limited potential to continue on its old path and huge potential to go the other way.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, July 2006

Almost no one expects the degree of change that Elliott Wave International anticipates. It’s time that you start thinking independently of the crowd and prepare for a psychological change that will be reflected in the price patterns of U.S. markets.


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline A Coy Public Suddenly Gets Cozy with Stocks. EWI is the

world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to

institutional and private investors around the world.