Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named

Actually this article was written and produced in September 2014 – I just didn’t publish it on this site – and NOW Deflation is panicking all the finance chiefs of Europe – Predicted years ago and continually – WELL DONE Elliot Wave International for your bold and analytically stance throughout this Deflationary Depression we’ve been in since March 2000.

Very few people called it right – from recollection a handful – well done

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named
The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a “Japan-style” deflation. Here’s our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It’s happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that’s akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: “deflation.”

And it’s not just “deflation.” You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

“Falling prices during deflation actually encourage consumers to spend.”

But once you add the following two very distinct words, there’s no way to turn that frown upside down. And those words are“Japan-style” deflation.

Japan has languished in a deflationary cycle pretty much since the late 1990s, its once booming economy reduced to ‘lost decades’ of stagnation. Europe is now teetering on the edge.” (Sept. 19, Associated Press)

Which begs an obvious question: Weren’t Europe’s central banks supposed to prevent this very scenario from happening via their unprecedented, 4-year-long campaign of “money-printing,” bond-buying and interest-rate-slashing?

The answer to that question is… yes. Those actions were indeed supposed to boost inflation.

What’s more, no one can say the European Central Bank didn’t utilize every available tool in their arsenal to try and accomplish that end. The problem is they were fighting a losing battle.

And, we are both happy and sad at the same time to report that from the very beginning, when the first rate cut was loaded into the save-the-economy cannon, we at Elliott Wave International foresaw that Europe’s retreat toward deflation was unavoidable.

Here’s a quick recap of what led us to that conclusion.

— 2011 —

January 2011: The “D” word is way off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices has fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation. Writes one January 22, 2011 LA Times article:

“Around the world, many countries aren’t confronted with the debilitating forces of deflation, but the opposite — inflation. Annualized inflation in the euro zone rose above the 2% target rate for the first time in more than 2 years.”

February 2011: The European Central Bank unveils its brand-new Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), extending nearly half a trillion euros in 3-year loans to banks at negligible interest rates — to stimulate the economy (and inflation).

July 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index declines, prompting a sigh of relief, not a shudder of fear from the Bank of England, who says “we can now breathe a little easier.”

(VS.)

Our August 2011 European Financial Forecast:

“We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks’ paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread.”

September 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index peaks at 5.2% and officially sets the downtrend in motion.

— 2012 —

January 2012: The Bank of England adds another 50 billion pounds to its asset purchase program, bringing its 3-year campaign of “money-printing” to 325 billion. The European Central Bank is less than 14 years old, yet total assets at the ECB breach 3 trillion.

February/March 2012: U.K. producer price inflation comes in higher than expected, prompting one U.K. economist to say: “PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes,” the clinical term for those who fear deflation. The economist goes on to recommend that sufferers “seek therapy.” (March 12 Wall Street Journal)

(VS.)

Our July 2012 European Financial Forecast:

“Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they’re again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009.”

August 2012 European Financial Forecast makes the first comparison of Europe to Japan:

“European leaders,” by slashing rates and printing money “seem determined to replicate Japan’s experience. Their efforts will not stop consumer price deflation.”

— 2014 —

May 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“The chart shows that British CPI accelerated lower after falling from a counter-trend peak of 5.2% back in September 2011, with year-over-year price growth just ticks above its late-2009 low.

“More than half of the 28 EU nations either teeter on the brink of deflation or have succumbed to falling prices already.

“The following chart shows that economic stagnation has reached even Germany, Europe’s most robust economy.”

September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“In a related phenomenon, the press has now jumped on the slew of similarities between Europe’s flagging economy and Japan’s… Clearly, the parallel paths of the two regions have become impossible for the press to ignore.

“The central bank’s latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners. Also like Japan, the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks’ overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.

The world has finally woken up to the possibility of a Japan-style deflation in Europe — years after the writing was already on the wall.

Now, you need to prepare for what’s to come.

The best part is, Elliott Wave International’s Founder and President, Robert Prechter, as written a book that can help you do just that. And you can read 8 chapters of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, free.


8 Chapters of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash — FREE

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You’ll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

You just cannot find better Independent analysis of the markets – I’ve been an EWI subscriber for years and although I don’t fully subscribe to their Elliott Wave theory I still value their research and analysis of the markets very very highly – The Hovis Trader

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

The great “inflated” expectations for gold, oil, commodities — and now stocks

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s Note: You can read the text version of this story below the video.

On January 21, one of the biggest financial lawsuits in recent history came to a costly end. The accused, ratings behemoth Standard & Poor’s, agreed to a $1.4 billion settlement for “inflating credit ratings on toxic assets,” thus accelerating and exacerbating the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Settlement aside, there is a far bigger issue here than business ethics or conflicts of interests, which is not likely to get a hearing in the court of mainstream finance.

Which is: The professionals who are supposed to assess investment risks are no better at it than you or I.

Case in point: Think back to November 30, 2001. The world’s largest seller of natural gas and electricity has gone from cash cow to dry bone. Its share price had plummeted 99%, from $90 to just under $1. YET– the company continued to enjoy an “INVESTMENT GRADE” rating.

The company’s name: Enron. Four days later, it filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Enron seems like a distant memory, but what about the subprime mortgage debacle? Moody’s rating service slashed the ratings of 131 subprime bonds due to higher than expected defaults, in July 2007 two years after the market for non-traditional mortgages had already turned.

Spot a trend here? The “experts” failure to anticipate huge trend changes in companies, and in the overall economy. In the first edition of his business best-seller Conquer the Crash, EWI president Bob Prechter wrote:

The most widely utilized ratings services are almost always woefully late in warning of problems within financial institutions. They often seem to get news about a company around the time everyone else does… In several cases, a company can collapse before the standard ratings services know what hit it.”

So here’s the question: What are the experts not seeing now that you and I need to prepare for?

What about gold? In 2012, with prices nearly reclaiming all-time high territory, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing campaign was supposed to keep the wind at gold’s back.

“Ben Bernanke has just offered gold investors a… gilded invitation to participate in the greatest secular bull market of our time.” (April 14, 2012, Motley Fool)

Then this happened:

The same goes for the 2008 peaks in oil and commodities — two more “safe-havens” that were supposed to benefit from the Fed’s money-printing campaign, but instead prices fell to lows not seen since the 2007 financial crisis.

So, that leaves the remaining outlier — equities, which have climbed to record highs. And, according to the experts, the path of least resistance remains up. A December 14, 2014 article in the New York Times:

“We don’t see a lot on the horizon that could derail the U.S stock market in particular.”

Our January 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist urges caution with this single chart of the S&P 500’s year-end valuations since 1927. Every major peak of the last 90 years landed well outside the normal range: 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007.

We believe the precarious placement of 2014 sends a similar message: “The stock market and the economy are not in a new multi-decade recovery as economists believe, but very late in a transition phase from boom to bust.”


Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Heard about DEflation?

Heres further detail of the Deflation time bomb over hanging us at this time

Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts

There’s more to deflation than falling prices

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.

Yet in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s headline says, “Deflation is Starting to Win.”

Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:

… the number of countries experiencing ‘lowflation’ has been steadily rising from 2011 (blue line). The eurozone tipped into outright deflation in December, with Germany, Britain and the US also seeing prices rise at near record lows.

The Telegraph, January 14

But as Prechter explains, falling prices are an effect of deflation.

Deflation is not a period of generally falling prices; it is a period of contraction in the total amount of money plus credit. Falling prices in an environment of stable money is indeed a good thing. In fact, in a real-money system, it is the norm, because technology makes things cheaper to produce. But when debt expands faster than production, it becomes overblown, then wiped out, and prices rise and fall in response.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2015

So a major debt buildup is a precondition of deflation. Do we see this today? The third edition of Conquer the Crash shows the answer.

Total dollar-denominated debt has skyrocketed since 1990. The upward trend turned slightly down during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but has since crept higher.

How fast and how far can this nearly $60 trillion in debt dwindle?

It’s instructive to review the collapse of the 1920s credit bubble.

On the left side of the chart, note how debt deflation needed nearly a decade to unwind.

Today’s mountain of debt is far higher than in 1929, yet our indicators suggest that the next debt deflation could unfold much more rapidly.

The third edition of Conquer the Crash provides 157 forecasts. Here are three:

  • Real estate values will begin to fall again, ultimately more than they did in the 1930s.
  • Hedge funds, mutual funds, money-market funds, managed accounts and brokerage accounts will go out of favor — many will go out of existence.
  • Financial corporations previously bailed out by the Fed and the U.S. government will fail again, as will new ones.

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

You were Warned well inadvance

I posted this in February 2014, I’d read it again and then look at what’s been happening since September:

https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/now-is-the-time-to-beware/

Ireland: Ground Zero for the Austerity-driven Asset Grab. The Bank Guarantee That Bankrupted Ireland

I mentioned a few blog posts ago of the IMF’s recommendation to steal money by way of a 10% bail-in tax – mentioned below in the article below courtesy of: http://www.globalresearch.ca/

EUcentralbank

The Irish have a long history of being tyrannized, exploited, and oppressed—from the forced conversion to Christianity in the Dark Ages, to slave trading of the natives in the 15th and 16th centuries, to the mid-nineteenth century “potato famine” that was really a holocaust. The British got Ireland’s food exports, while at least one million Irish died from starvation and related diseases, and another million or more emigrated.

Today, Ireland is under a different sort of tyranny, one imposed by the banks and the troika—the EU, ECB and IMF. The oppressors have demanded austerity and more austerity, forcing the public to pick up the tab for bills incurred by profligate private bankers.

The official unemployment rate is 13.5%—up from 5% in 2006—and this figure does not take into account the mass emigration of Ireland’s young people in search of better opportunities abroad. Job loss and a flood of foreclosures are leading to suicides. A raft of new taxes and charges has been sold as necessary to reduce the deficit, but they are simply a backdoor bailout of the banks.

At first, the Irish accepted the media explanation: these draconian measures were necessary to “balance the budget” and were in their best interests. But after five years of belt-tightening in which unemployment and living conditions have not improved, the people are slowly waking up. They are realizing that their assets are being grabbed simply to pay for the mistakes of the financial sector.

Five years of austerity has not restored confidence in Ireland’s banks. In fact the banks themselves are packing up and leaving. On October 31st, RTE.ie reported that Danske Bank Ireland was closing its personal and business banking, only days after ACCBank announced it was handing back its banking license; and Ulster Bank’s future in Ireland remains unclear.

The field is ripe for some publicly-owned banks. Banks that have a mandate to serve the people, return the profits to the people, and refrain from speculating. Banks guaranteed by the state because they are the state, without resort to bailouts or bail-ins. Banks that aren’t going anywhere, because they are locally owned by the people themselves.

Ireland was the first European country to watch its entire banking system fail.  Unlike the Icelanders, who refused to bail out their bankrupt banks, in September 2008 the Irish government gave a blanket guarantee to all Irish banks, covering all their loans, deposits, bonds and other liabilities.

At the time, no one was aware of the huge scale of the banks’ liabilities, or just how far the Irish property market would fall.

Within two years, the state bank guarantee had bankrupted Ireland.  The international money markets would no longer lend to the Irish government.

Before the bailout, the Irish budget was in surplus. By 2011, its deficit was 32% of the country’s GDP, the highest by far in the Eurozone. At that rate, bank losses would take every penny of Irish taxes for at least the next three years.

“This debt would probably be manageable,” wrote Morgan Kelly, Professor of Economics at University College Dublin, “had the Irish government not casually committed itself to absorb all the gambling losses of its banking system.”

To avoid collapse, the government had to sign up for an €85 billion bailout from the EU-IMF and enter a four year program of economic austerity, monitored every three months by an EU/IMF team sent to Dublin.

Public assets have also been put on the auction block. Assets currently under consideration include parts of Ireland’s power and gas companies and its 25% stake in the airline Aer Lingus.

At one time, Ireland could have followed the lead of Iceland and refused to bail out its bondholders or to bow to the demands for austerity. But that was before the Irish government used ECB money to pay off the foreign bondholders of Irish banks. Now its debt is to the troika, and the troika are tightening the screws.  In September 2013, they demanded another 3.1 billion euro reduction in spending.

Some ministers, however, are resisting such cuts, which they say are politically undeliverable.

In The Irish Times on October 31, 2013, a former IMF official warned that the austerity imposed on Ireland is self-defeating. Ashoka Mody, former IMF chief of mission to Ireland, said it had become “orthodoxy that the only way to establish market credibility” was to pursue austerity policies. But five years of crisis and two recent years of no growth needed “deep thinking” on whether this was the right course of action. He said there was “not one single historical instance” where austerity policies have led to an exit from a heavy debt burden.

Austerity has not fixed Ireland’s debt problems. Belying the rosy picture painted by the media, in September 2013 Antonio Garcia Pascual, chief euro-zone economist at Barclays Investment Bank, warned that Ireland may soon need a second bailout.

According to John Spain, writing in Irish Central in September 2013:

The anger among ordinary Irish people about all this has been immense. . . . There has been great pressure here for answers. . . . Why is the ordinary Irish taxpayer left carrying the can for all the debts piled up by banks, developers and speculators? How come no one has been jailed for what happened? . . . [D]espite all the public anger, there has been no public inquiry into the disaster.

Bail-in by Super-tax or Economic Sovereignty?

In many ways, Ireland is ground zero for the austerity-driven asset grab now sweeping the world. All Eurozone countries are mired in debt. The problem is systemic.

In October 2013, an IMF report discussed balancing the books of the Eurozone governments through a super-tax of 10% on all households in the Eurozone with positive net wealth. That would mean the confiscation of 10% of private savings to feed the insatiable banking casino.

The authors said the proposal was only theoretical, but that it appeared to be “an efficient solution” for the debt problem. For a group of 15 European countries, the measure would bring the debt ratio to “acceptable” levels, i.e. comparable to levels before the 2008 crisis.

A review posted on Gold Silver Worlds observed:

[T]he report right away debunks the myth that politicians and main stream media try to sell, i.e. the crisis is contained and the positive economic outlook for 2014.

. . . Prepare yourself, the reality is that more bail-ins, confiscation and financial repression is coming, contrary to what the good news propaganda tries to tell.

A more sustainable solution was proposed by Dr Fadhel Kaboub, Assistant Professor of Economics at Denison University in Ohio. In a letter posted in The Financial Times titled “What the Eurozone Needs Is Functional Finance,” he wrote:

The eurozone’s obsession with “sound finance” is the root cause of today’s sovereign debt crisis. Austerity measures are not only incapable of solving the sovereign debt problem, but also a major obstacle to increasing aggregate demand in the eurozone. The Maastricht treaty’s “no bail-out, no exit, no default” clauses essentially amount to a joint economic suicide pact for the eurozone countries.

. . . Unfortunately, the likelihood of a swift political solution to amend the EU treaty is highly improbable. Therefore, the most likely and least painful scenario for [the insolvent countries] is an exit from the eurozone combined with partial default and devaluation of a new national currency. . . .

The takeaway lesson is that financial sovereignty and adequate policy co-ordination between fiscal and monetary authorities are the prerequisites for economic prosperity.

Standing Up to Goliath

 Ireland could fix its budget problems by leaving the Eurozone, repudiating its blanket bank guarantee as “odious” (obtained by fraud and under duress), and issuing its own national currency. The currency could then be used to fund infrastructure and restore social services, putting the Irish back to work.

Short of leaving the Eurozone, Ireland could reduce its interest burden and expand local credit by forming publicly-owned banks, on the model of the Bank of North Dakota. The newly-formed Public Banking Forum of Ireland is pursuing that option. In Wales, which has also been exploited for its coal, mobilizing for a public bank is being organized by the Arian Cymru ‘BERW’ (Banking and Economic Regeneration Wales).

Irish writer Barry Fitzgerald, author of Building Cities of Gold, casts the challenge to his homeland in archetypal terms:

The Irish are mobilising and they are awakening. They hold the DNA memory of vastly ancient times, when all men and women obeyed the Golden rule of honouring themselves, one another and the planet. They recognize the value of this harmony as it relates to banking. They instantly intuit that public banking free from the soiled hands of usurious debt tyranny is part of the natural order.

In many ways they could lead the way in this unfolding, as their small country is so easily traversed to mobilise local communities.  They possess vast potential renewable energy generation and indeed could easily use a combination of public banking and bond issuance backed by the people to gain energy independence in a very short time.

When the indomitable Irish spirit is awakened, organized and mobilized, the country could become the poster child not for austerity, but for economic prosperity through financial sovereignty.

Ellen Brown is an attorney, president of the Public Banking Institute, and author of twelve books, including the best-selling Web of Debt. In The Public Bank Solution, her latest book, she explores successful public banking models historically and globally. Her blog articles are at EllenBrown.com.

Spanish & Italian Bad Loans!!!!!

This Is an article published a couple of months ago – BUT for those subscribers to EWI  they’ve been watching the line on the graph grow since 2008!  this is why when countries go bust we don’t have the “shock” factor as we’ve been watching the build up over the years.

Those graphs (below) are also NOT a shock for the Spanish or Italian governments and central banks – they know the details before EWI publish those graphs – have they (governments) openly expressed the level of bad debts????  Have the governments highlighted the debt levels before now????  What actually have the governments of these countries done to warn their public of the risks????

The answer is – They’ve done nothing but try to hide the problem and hop/pray It will go away!  Just like Greece, just like Ireland and Just like Portugal – I amount this to lying to those that you govern and is shameful.

I make no apologies for promoting EWI – I spent years researching the markets, newsletter providers and the like and EWI are the only one I’m prepared to put my name to.

Enjoy

The Hovis Trader

European Debt Crisis: “Imagine the Worst and Double It” Just how will the sovereign debt crisis end? June 20, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

We’ve all heard the line: Let me give it to you straight.

And in speaking to his counterparts in Spain, an Irish economist did just that.

Ireland has this banking advice for Spain: imagine the worst and double it. [emphasis added]

Like Ireland, Spain sought a bank bailout after being felled by a real-estate crash. Now, just as the Irish did, the Spanish are awaiting the results of outside stress tests gauging the size of the hole in the banking system.

Bloomberg, June 14

Stress test or no, EWI’s Global Market Perspective has known that Spain’s banking system is frail. In May, the publication gave its subscribers this chart-supported insight:

A 17-year high in the percentage of non-performing Spanish loans is merely one illustration of the Continent’s illness. After falling to a four-decade low of less than 1% in 2007, delinquencies have spiked eightfold in the past five years. The percentage stands at its highest level since 1994.

Global Market Perspective, May 2012

By itself, a subsidiary of Spain’s largest bank, Banco Santander, absorbed Q1 bad loan losses of 475-million euros.

Italy is in the same sinking economic boat. The June Global Market Perspective showed how much the eurozone’s third largest economy is also drowning in bad debt.

The Italian and Spanish economies are in shambles as borrowing costs have skyrocketed for both countries.

But the recent spotlight has been on Greece. Now that the Greek election is over and voters appear ready to embrace austerity, should we be optimistic about the future of the euro zone?

You owe it to yourself and your investments to find out. Remember, even if you believe you’re not directly invested in Europe, there’s a very good chance that some of the companies in your portfolio are.


Get Ahead of What Is Still to Come in This FREE Report from Elliott Wave InternationalThe debt crisis in Europe continues to play out in the political, social and financial worlds. What will be next? With commentary and analysis from February 2010 through today, this timely report gives you an important perspective on the European debt crisis and what it could mean for your portfolio.Read Your Free Report Now: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline European Debt Crisis: “Imagine the Worst and Double It”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The point of NO return

Please find below EVIDENCE of the dreaded 8% bond Yield that no country in the world wants as it’s the critical breaking point.

I’ve been a subscriber and supporter of Elliott Wave Internationals reports and accurate analysis for over 3 years now – although I don’t trade or invest based on their Elliott Waves, I find their research and analysis of great value, the stuff they cover is not covered by the main stream media, I don’t know why not but the main stream media just don’t have all the facts.

As I trade and Invest for a living I can’t work on maybe’s – I must have cast iron facts – actual numbers and figures formed into a chart does not lie – only the interpretation of that chart can cause confusion, but the facts are simply FACTS.

I’d recommend signing up for their FREE content as a minimum – you’ll then be one step ahead of the main crowd.

Obviously their paid for services cover more in-depth analysis and ground but still, the free stuff on their site is a gold mine if used properly.

Enjoy

The Hovis Trader

Portugal’s Bailout, One Year Later: Were You Prepared in Advance? Many analysts had opinions before the bailout, but no one was talking about the most important indicator April 26, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Make no mistake: The stakes for financial and economic survival in Europe are high. Seemingly everyone — from investment bloggers to financial television hosts — has something to say about the European debt crisis.

But with so many divergent opinions to choose from, which ones should you trust?

That’s where Elliott Wave International’s global-market analysis team comes in. Our analysts cut through the noise of endless talking heads with an independent perspective. By focusing on objective Elliott waves and other technical indicators, they equip you to stay one step ahead of Europe’s financial turmoil.

Case in point: Just over one year ago in late March 2011, mainstream analysts conjectured about the probability of a Portuguese bailout. Many people had opinions, but no one was talking about the most important indicator, namely that Portugal’s borrowing costs had just crossed a critical threshold. No one, that is, except EWI European market analyst Brian Whitmer.

Here’s what he told his readers in the April 1, 2011, Global Market Perspective (emphasis added):

Observe the horizontal line on this chart of 10-year borrowing costs in Greece, Ireland and Portugal. It’s no magic number, but 8% seems to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. As the arrow on the left shows, Greek authorities activated their bailout package on April 23, 2010, two days after 10-year yields crossed 8%. In Ireland, bond yields surpassed 8% on November 10, 2010, and Irish authorities activated their bailout the following week. Mark your calendar, because Portuguese yields made the treacherous crossing two days ago. The implication is that the continent’s third sovereign bailout in less than a year has become a near certainty.

A “near certainty,” indeed. Just five days after Whitmer published this analysis, Portugal’s government officially requested a bailout, and, one month later, it got one.

You see, EWI’s global analysts like Whitmer don’t follow the talking heads nor do they rely on fundamentals — both of which can be misleading. Instead, they examine objective evidence and charts — like this one — to deliver crystal-clear, forward-thinking analysis.


Get FREE Access to the Report on the European Debt CrisisNow you can take control of your financial future with the prescient, objective insights of EWI’s global analysis in a special FREE report.

The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments equips you to get ahead of what is yet to come. You get 11 chart-filled articles loaded with our insights into the European debt crisis — plus a special excerpt from Robert Prechter’s New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash.

Get your FREE European Debt Crisis report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Portugal’s Bailout, One Year Later: Were You Prepared in Advance?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.