Gann Series Introduction- Feb 2017

I’m starting my series of W.D. Gann related posts from the beginning – There is still a huge veil of unknowing that still surrounds Gann to this day – some believe his claims of making $50,000,000 others don’t – What we do know is that Gann made some calls on Wheat and stocks that happened, How he managed to do exactly that we are ALL still searching for – Gann knew in advance what price and when a stock should turn/move to etc – Gann apportioned this to having worked out that markets/stocks VIBRATE according to Natural Law.  We will look at part of this in this post – future posts will develop the theory

In this Gann Series I will NOT be going into massive detail about this or that – you’ll either be interested or not – what I will do is show you you things, If you’re Interested you’ll then have the ability to research, expand knowledge and test for yourself on your own and in your own time – If I did everything for you, It would take up a huge amount of my time that I just don’t have available.

First the DISCLAIMER – I’ve personally avoided being drawn into the trading community, I’ve not subscribed to trading magazines, services, Internet groups or the like and still don’t – as I prefer to discover things for myself –  and I’ve not bought any of the courses on Gann from 3rd parties, apart from Gann’s own courses and Bradley F Cowans courses – I  bought the lot in one foul swoop from Mr. Cowan and have been exploring the markets scientifically ever since.  So I have no way or inclination of knowing that what I write about going forward in this and future Gann posts, has already been written about or not (I’ve come to trading late in the 2000’s, the discoveries I’ve made must have been discovered and written about prior to now, I would find it hard to believe that thousands of people who have looked at Gann have not found and explored what I’m going to talk about, especially since the Internet became mass used in the mid 90’s onwards  – The entire content of this series will be my own work, thoughts and interpretation of Gann’s works  – If I’ve used a source, it will be referred to as their work not mine.

I don’t think you need Gann’s courses either, but they are handy to own so that you can refer to etc – you won’t get too much out of them – REMEMBER I’m willing to bet tens of thousands of people since the 1950’s have owned and read his courses and that 95% of them are still none the wiser as to using his methods as 99% of the courses are generic – Gann’s course of Instructions on Gann Geometrical angles, can’t be employed successfully in today’s markets on there own – same with his course on time cycles (hit and miss at best) – you might be aware, but Gann sold a simple course and he also sold sold a much higher priced course that was much greater detailed (we’ll see evidence of this in future posts in this series)

First you NEED to learn and understand things that Gann Said in his material – we also need to make some assumptions too (this is the subjective part!(Where it can all go wrong!))  The reason we need to understand what Gann said is because he DID NOT reveal exactly his methods or calculations – he hid the true meaning in veiled words and sentences, so it’s important to start off thinking about where Gann came from and then work outwards to his methods from there, so that is what we shall do – Please note, this is NOT a detailed or in-depth analysis (I’ve no intention of writing a book on the subject so I don’t have to and won’t be 100% thorough – but you’ll have a enough to start thinking properly)

  1. Gann WAS a Freemason – You start to learn the secrets of the Egyptians AND Geometry in this cult (Yes it is a cult/sect)
  2. Do NOT dismiss this – it is more relevant than you know!
  3. For Example – The Great Fire of London happened early September 1666 – on the 11th September Sir Christopher Wren (Freemason) submitted plans to the King of England for the rebuilding of the part of the city that had been destroyed by the raging fire – These plans were based on the geometrical structure “Sephirothic Tree ” THEN just 2 days later on the 13th September 1666 John Evelyn (Freemason) presented virtually the same design to the King (1)
  4. The King rejected both designs – just stop and think for 1 minute, would it be possible for an Architect to draft and produce city plans in a handful of days???? Not a chance

kircher-tree

So these plans were rejected by the King of England, BUT over 100 years later the plans WERE implemented into a City – the newly found capital of the USA (Washington DC) – These plans were virtually identical to those produced by Wren for London!!!!!

You can bet your bottom dollar that within Washington DC street plan reference either written or visually represented by statues etc to those sacred aspects and terms on the Sephirothic Tree above

mall_overhead

  • This is well worth researching as you will find reference to this type of thing in Gann’s recommended reading
  • Gann’s Square of Nine is clearly a Pyramid – 2 Dimension looking from above it – Freemasonry Is heavily associated with The Egyptians – All you have to do is find Egyptian Obelisk’s that stand proudly in plain sight in London, Paris and Washington and find out where they were taken from – so it is 100% clear Ancient Egypt and Freemasonry are inter-connected.    As Gann was a master mason and his methods were very esoteric we subjectively connect the 2
  • Freemasonry was all about GEOMETRY & Numbers especially number relevance – it’s why certain ceremonies take place on certain dates and times.
  • Freemasonry is full of secrets – probably why Gann hid clues n his works rather than come out directly tell you
  • Gann WAS also an Astrologist – we have proof of this
  • What we don’t have proof of is that Gann used Astrology as we know & understand it i.e. Newspaper Astrology etc to trade from/with
  •  The quotes below should point you in the direction looked at things – we can prove this as they are taken directly from his marketing material he produced to sell his courses and books – straight from the horses mouth!
  • Having read Gann’s course and books it is obvious that Gann did NOT fully reveal his true methods – His Coffee Santos letter to a private student is probably one of a few letters that give you a clue to what he did and yet when you try to replicate this it is very very hard to know the markets EXACT moves! – Also Gann either intentially or not put errors in his work – this was either a genuine typo or an error to force the student to rework the figures to learn.
  • I will be publishing a special blog post referring to “Tunnel Thru the Air” at some point in the future
  • Now lets look at some key Gann quotes – all Gann quotes in “” – from his marketing material:
  • “Stocks are like Electrons, Atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental Law of Vibration.  Science teaches that an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into periodic or rhythmical motion” “Stocks like atoms are really centres of energies, therefore they are controlled mathematically.  Stocks create their own field of action and power, power to attract and repel”- I am working on this very thing right now – attract/repel is magnetic [see below] and THIS is very very important from my initial findings
  • “Faraday said There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force – My memory tells me this was MAGNETIC points of force, so Gann could have either got this wrong or replaced mathematics for magnetic in an attempt to divert you to look at magnetic properties etc or I might be wrong but I thought Faraday worked on magnetics not maths – It’s late and I can’t be bothered to look to reference it as it’s not that important – point is on Earth magnetism exits so do mathematics could be either or both
  • Law of Vibration “I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities.  This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements” “The Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and  phonographs are based “”There exists a periodic or  cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements” “The Law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and hourly movements of stocks.  By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met” “I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonic relationship to the driving power behind it.  the secret of all its activity is therefore apparent” “I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline” – It’s a best guess that this refers to the sympathetic resonance that exists in music and sound – this can be used as the planets cycle in cycles that harmonically resonate with each other (Gann’s Time Cycles are also Planetary cycles i.e. the 30 year cycle is Saturn – this is mentioned in one of his courses directly – whether intentionally or unintentionally / which then allows you to explore all the other planets).  The last quote could also reference Gann’s Soybean chart with Jupiter and Mars Interacting – as can be seen from his [Gann’s] Soybean chart, with Mar’s position plotted in PRICE as well as Jupiter’s and when the two meet price faced big resistance – The Time cycles that I present on this site are based on Sympathetic Resonance (This is WHY static Time Cycles don’t work that well, as at times the source cycle could be in a fast or slow speed depending upon where it is at in its cycle)
  • Astrology & Scientific methods – “Time proves ALL things, even when stocks make tops and bottoms….because we know by MATHEMATICAL SCIENCE when time cycles repeat. These valuable rules are all in the Bible if you know where to find them” – This clue is obviously directly related to ASTRONOMY as you can PROVE the EXACT location of the planets based on pure mathematical science (Astrology is NOT a mathematical science, but Astronomy IS)
  • In Gann’s reading list there is a book called – Teritum Orgamum – this book is about the 3rd and 4th Dimensions –  Gann’s Master chart lesson says “Market movements are made just the same as any other thing which is constructed.  It is just the same as constructing a building.  First the foundation has to be laid then the four sides have to be completed and last, but not least of all, the top has to be put on.  The cube or hexagon proves exactly the law which works because of time and space in the market.  When a building is put up it is built according to a square or hexagon,  It has four walls or four sides, a bottom and a top: therefore, it is a cubeThe cube is a 3 Dimensional object that looks like a hexagon when it is viewed on a 2 Dimensional page/chart – Gann produced a hexagon chart!  Gann’s references to the 4th Dimension happened in the latter part of his life in the 1950’s – so he was not using this when he made his 1909 wheat 120 trade prediction – Gann also produced a Master Calculator that overlaid a chart which lots of geometrical lines, he produced this to see the other dimensions hidden within the 2 D chart
  • “The Master calculator locates the Corner stone, the key stone and the cap stone for price and time trend.  It proves the master number and master time factor and shows how and why they work on price” “The Master calculator proves 9 divisions of time from one centre or time factor and shows at a glance whether price of stocks or commodities are in the weak or strong position” – The stones Gann refers to are Egyptian and can be found in pyramids – Masons also refer to them and have them in buildings they build with ceremonies at the laying of the corner stone as previously mentioned in the first part of this blog post and why I linked in to Egyptians!!!!!!!  This is another area I am working on as I think this is the key.  Gann only mentions this once or twice in his entire works but I think it’s absolutely crucial – I’ll link this in to Gann’s Square of Nine in future posts.
  • There is so much rubbish and speculation out there as to Gann’s methods and YET – NO-ONE has come close to replicating Gann’s success.  I am under the belief that out there somewhere there is a series of letters from Gann to a personal private student to whom he’s divulged his exact method, we’ve yet to find or see such a letter as Gann made his student sign a confidentiality clause or such copies may simply not exist!  I’m also of the opinion that Gann might never of revealed his exact methods – there is absolutely nothing in his courses that back up his Wheat 120 call – the methods he reveals don’t allow you to make such calls and hundred’s of traders have since tried to look for such a method WITHOUT success

I’ve shown you that Freemasonry is not as clear cut as you might think – this has been proven in Wren trying to model London on the S Tree! and when he failed the newly found USA incorporated it – going waaaaay off piste – did you know that America is actually referred to in Scottish text (Freemasonry of course!) DECADES before it was “officially” discovered by Europeans!

I’ll stop here as I could just keep on going as there’s too much material around.

Apologies for any typo’s, grammatical errors etc – this document has not been proof read and I don’t intend to do so.

(1) Source – “The Master Game” by Hancock & Bauval ISBN 978-1-934708-64-4

 

 

 

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Gann Series – PRE-Intro

Keep an eye out for my new Gann Series – Introduction coming towards the end of this month – It will be ad-hoc posting over the course of time as it’s something extra I plan to do.

It will be an “eye-opener” to make you think, explore and research for yourself – I’m NOT a Gann Expert – I know enough to know that in his course’s and books he actually revealed very little about his true method (and I don’t know his true method!) I am sure a few thousand people around the globe do know his precise methods from their research but researching those people would also take you decades of time! – Some may be well-known, I don’t need to know as I’m not that interested in subscribing to this or that or other peoples books.

I’m NOT knocking Gann – his methods he details in his courses and books are still more informative, interesting AND relevant than most of the trading/Investing books published since his time – which says something about today’s authors/traders etc!

For ME, all I want is to know the significant trend direction for the next X years so that I can have that into my mind when trading – I only trade LONG too – I think I’ve found that with my personal cycle analysis of the 17 yr cycle – this can then be broken down in smaller cycles BUT where my cycle analysis FAILS, is it does NOT tell me whether a cycle turn will be UP or DOWN, so you have to trade warily of that fact.

For me I would love to know and understand Gann’s true methods, but I doubt I’d change the way I trade, it would just enhance my confidence in positions if you knew when they should end etc.

My style of writing is to the point and very direct – I’ve read too many books [98% of which have been binned] that are filled with rubbish info with only 5-10 pages of essential info – just give me a book with the 5-10 pages of good stuff then!

If you make 20% a year from Investing/Trading you’ll do very well over the years due to the compound nature of money – I’ve shown you over the past few months that you can make decent returns by trading/Investing simply using market FACTS – See my pages on FTSE250/Nasdaq100 & Gold using a very simple method.

Unfortunately people don’t make money trading – they use methods such as moving averages, Elliott Wave Analysis and Indicators and think that they’ll work just because a book selling them info is published “so it must work”!!!!!!

In Gann’s courses he details LOTS of stats on the market, lots of stats on bull and bear markets etc and he also gives you basics to trade – I use one of his methods very successfully, as it catches trends and bottoms nicely – BUT if I put all his dates/time cycles on my charts I’d have loads of potential turn dates overlapping one another and no definite date to watch – you can’t use this to risk money on (well I can’t and won’t anyway) – Over the course of the series we’ll be extracting bits from his course to analyse and test in current markets to show you – the Law of averages (this is NOT a NATURAL LAW) says that some will work and some won’t – we’ll see when we look at that blog post in the months ahead.

As you’ll figure out as we go through this series – most of Gann’s work was generalisations – he hid his true work as you’ll see.

Watch out for the Intro post coming to you this month.

Until then happy trading and wishing you every success in all parts of your life.

 

 

Triangles

It’s nothing new Gann was looking at these over 100 years ago on the Dow – he just never mentioned Triangles directly – Gann classed them as A’s, M’s W’s, MM’s, WW’s, WA’s and WM’s etc

Apologies for the spelling mistakes on the chart- I don’t fully proof read before I publish to a free blog.

10

Longer term view confirms:

11

Now go and get a chart of ANY market to prove to yourself that they are present on ALL time-frames

How you SEE the triangle depends upon it’s position in the journey it’s taking – it’s only when it’s square on to your line of vision [on the chart] that it looks like an A, twist the A Anti-Clockwise and it has a high low last leg to the A (see far left of the chart above – you’ve got a clockwise twisted A that produces a bearish market with a lower last leg of the A and Immediately following that you’ve got a bullish A as described prior)

This twisting nature of Time also EXPLAINS why when you try to measure in time High-High points or Low-Low points different days/time occur rather than a static cycle – Depending on which way Time is twisting will result in closer tops/bottoms or tops/bottoms further away from each other

A’s offer you great trading opportunities especially when they form after a correction

I plan to produce paid for content on this subject later into 2017 – any questions on this subject might be answered, they might not be as I don’t wish to reveal too much in the free blog post.

To understand this slightly better, try to visualise the price moves on the chart in 3 Dimensions – Look at it from the point of view as price action either moving towards you or away from you and you will SEE things differently

One final point – It’s hard to use these triangles to trade with all the time – notice that during up or down TRENDS you can’t see any triangles – the trick is knowing the patterns and what they mean.

 

 

Gann Angles 1 – S&P500

W.D. Gann used angles as the “basis to his analysis”

It’s no secret that Gann liked the CIRCLE, virtually everything he did was based around the Circle and the 360 degrees that fit inside the circle – Gann Angles are just another part of the circle – the angles from 0-90 degrees that fit onto a 2 Dimension chart – computer or paper the only option you have is using them within 90 degrees.

It would be worth you reading Ganns courses to understand how he put it all together.

gann-angles-sp500

I’ve not labelled the angles – the PINK lines are the 1 x 1 angle or in Gann’s parlance the 45 Degree angle.

From 2009 – 2015 it is obvious that PRICE has worked out to the 45 degree 1 x 1 angle

There is no way for certain to work out in advance whether price will follow which angle – price could follow the 8 x 1 up or the 2 x 1 – if price moves up 1000 pts and takes 1000 trading days/weeks or months then it has followed the 1 x 1 angle – you have no idea in advance whether it will or not – you can see though from the chart above that there is obviously something in it unless you’d not have that many hits.

Gann put an angle or combination of angles (as even he didn’t know which angle price would react too) on EVERY high and low, when they intersected/crossed Down/Up etc it often created support/resistance levels

Please note that the scaling on this chart is not 100% precise – I just use the angles as a gauge I don’t use them to trade/Invest from/with – I scaled the price by taking the extreme high and low and dividing by the time taken – this is good in HINDSIGHT but not for forecasting methods……

There is another way to use Gann angles I’ll make a note to do a post on part 2 sometime in 2017 – In the meantime watch out for my 2017 Market Forecast

You were Warned well inadvance

I posted this in February 2014, I’d read it again and then look at what’s been happening since September:

https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/now-is-the-time-to-beware/

A little time off

Hi all,

I’ve not disappeared, just taking some time away from the blog and markets.

I’m still fully trading, but rather than being at my computer, I’m doing a few projects around the home and away from the screens.

quick look @ S&P500, tells me that its currently stalling at new highs, It’s been a sideways market since March 2014, overall the trend is stalling but within an uptrend = bias to the upside.

Could it turn into a down trend?  Of course it could, potentially but certainly not confirmed is leg 1 and 2 of an Elliott Wave, but that needs much more content and detail to be proven correct and it is at odds with the overall direction of the market, but it is a possibility.

In my opinion you cannot make classifications that the trend has changed – that would simply be a pure guess – W.D. Gann said “Do not guess, trade facts”.  The overriding facts are uptrend since 2009, no bearish confirmation of late, pullbacks in the overall trend in line with previous in both TIME and PRICE so the outlook must be to the upside and Bullish until the market proves us wrong.

I have no doubt that in the next few months the market (S&P500/FTSE100 etc) will have a fairly decent sell off, I just don’t know exactly when and neither does anybody else.  Following that sell-off will be a very decent buying opportunity, certainly for the short-term and maybe for the long term.

Only time will tell exactly what happens, the trick is being part of it or out of it, not on the wrong side of it – that is what helps you to make money from the markets.

S&P500 Index – Update

OK, recent price action has forced me to update the commentary on the S&P500.

A potential TOP could be in, it is not certain (we need more price action), price taking out the Minor swing low is a potential game changer.  BUT, it ALL depends upon how price action forms and reacts  during the next few weeks.

Look at the chart below (I’ve used this in the last update), there is an equal chance that all is happening is a simple or complex correction from the highs OR that we are within the early stages of a bear market.  I know some traders are saying that’s it the tops in, but they were also saying that on MOST highs in the market!  Like I’ve said in the past, you throw enough predictions and one will hit, it does not mean you’re smart!

1737.92 is now the key and critical level, for me until key lows are taken out such as 1737.92 the odds still favour the upside, but as I’ve mentioned this could be the start of a major downtrend – it is just too early to know for sure.

When we trade, we are guessing, we now need to watch the bounces that will occur, if they are strong then I’d expect price to head higher to sideways, if the bounces are weak in terms of number of bars and price % then the downside might be here – keep an eye on the bounces as they will be critical.

Look at the “bounce” from the 5th Feb 2014 = STRONG

1

You could refine the quality of the analysis in the chart about by placing retracement levels, but I find it simpler to just watch price action and see what it actually does, because that is the most important indicator of all – PRICE action.

Remember I am looking for a +20% correction in the markets this year, I had a Time Cycle date of 29th March 2014 – the HIGH so far came in only 5 days later – the Time Cycle is still VALID.

If we are still within a Deflationary Depression (as I think we are) then 6 year Bull markets just do not happen, they NEVER have in 200+ years of stock market history.  Obviously if we are NOT in a DD then the market is perfectly fine with a 6 year bull market.

 

 

Weekly Time & Price analysis – W/C 7th April 2014

Hi All,

This week we come back to the mighty S&P500, I’ll provide a update to what to look for going forward in this post too.  But first let’s look at last weeks Call for the EURUSD.

We were looking for a LOW, in fact the time zone runs to the 18th April 2014 for a LOW point – so we are still within that zone in both Time and Price.

Right the S&P500, lets review the Price and Time zones and then look at the market itself from a technical point of view

Swing File Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price

Projecting the END of the UPSWING on the WEEKLY EURUSD – in the zone now

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price

DAILY Analysis = looking for the LOW of this swing DOWN, again in the ZONE!

Fibonacci Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

DAILY Analysis = Fib counts/analysis says Tuesday 22nd April has the highest number of hits – wait and see.

What to look for going forward – update:

S&P500

WTLFGF1

Look at the chart above, to be honest the critical information is shown on the chart, my words here are just to explain the detail in plain English so that my thoughts are clear.

The PINK horizontal line = a current SUPPORT shelf, If and how long it hold I have no idea (neither does anybody else)

ALL the moving averages are in Bullish mode, pointing up and separated nicely = UPTREND

The PINK moving average gives the impression that price found support at that level – it did, but the support occurred at the PRICE level NOT the moving average – think, on the days of support the moving average was one bar back, PRICE drags the moving averages along, the moving averages do NOT drag price – this is a classic ILLUSION to which people will say “Look, price found support at the MA level” It’s not true, it just happens that the MA met with price at those levels – why did the MA FAIL to support price in June 2013, August 2013, October 2013, Dec 2013?  BECAUSE price found support and the MA was not priced near enough to create the Illusion AND even if it were true that moving averages provide support NO-ONE can tell you in advance WHY or WHEN it will next happen, so there value is pretty limited in my book – BUT they [Moving Averages] are good at helping you see and identify the trend direction, although you could just get a line draw it on the chart and determine if it;s heading sideways, down or up and that would be just as good.

In Fact I will do a series on Trend Identification in the coming weeks

The Thick BLACK horizontal line is CRITICAL SUPPORT – If that level is broken – POTENTIALLY – the trend could have changed from UP to DOWN, BUT, that is not for certain – IF that happens it will be the biggest correction for a number of months – W.D. Gann said that when the size and time of a correction exceeds those of the past corrections in the trend watch out for a trend reversal – that’s exactly what we will do – KEEP WATCH.

You can see from careful study of the DAILY chart that Gann’s quote so far has FAILED – so far the largest corrections in Time and Price have FAILED to be reversal points!  Another “Market FACT” that in fact is a MYTH!  At some point Gann’s quote will come true, but I wonder after how many FAILURE POINTS!  (I reckon about 80% of what you learn about the markets is a load of crap – Elliott Wave and Gann included) But I also say that PARTS of Gann and Elliott Wave are genius and workable.

We now need to look at this S&P500 market in a different context – a higher time-frame chart to see the bigger picture – detail on the chart should be self-explanatory

WTLFGF2

Once those KEY support levels start to be taken out all you can do is watch to see where the market will find support – no-one knows where it will find support, people will try to guess such as 61.8% fib level of X-X, or 50% (not even a FIB level!) of X-X – but they never tell you EXACTLY which levels will provide the resistance or which high and low to work off, that’s because they DON’T KNOW, it;s all ifs and buts in the markets – at least I’m honest about it!

For me the crucial support levels are the ones I’m watching anything up to them is just market noise and a standard potential correction in progress.

Just remember that NO-ONE, me included knows exactly where and when this market will top or bottom out – If you throw enough guesses at the thing eventually you’ll get it right! BEWARE of predictions.

Oh and another point, people keep bleating on about QE1 turning the market in 2009 – QE1 was an accounting trick – no real money entered the markets! So how that managed to pump the market higher I’ll never know, if markets can rise on fresh air all we need is a giant fan aimed at the markets with a hint of QE rumour and they should propel ever more higher.

What to Look for going forward the next part will be posted in a month or so time – until that uptrend changes to do guess what the trend direction is?  Up that’s right

Hope it helps.

 

Update on Time Cycles

I’m writing this post early Thursday 3rd April 2014, I’m writing it assuming that the March 29th 2014 market cycle I’ve previously talked about has FAILED/NOT WORKED – If over the next 2 days the markets commence a multi-month sell-off then I’ll have to revise this post with the data

We will still have to watch Thursdays and Fridays market action but if the market continues UP then we have to take it on the chin and assume that the cycle has had no effect on the market. (I’m looking at the S&P500 Index).

If you’re like me these Time Cycles are not essential to how you trade, they are there in a what if scenario, something to be aware of and act on if it becomes obvious a turning point is upon you etc.

For me that’s pretty much it now for the rest of the year on cycles, there’s a couple of minor ones during the summer and another expectation on something different from summer – October time.  I’ll not mention them here, I think I have mentioned them in other blog posts but they are minor and I’m not basing too much on it.  Students know about the October cycle.

Did I trade the March 29th Cycle?  Nope.

I’m truly hoping that if you’ve been following my cycle analysis you’ve picked up on something – it CANNOT be relied on to tell you every twist and turn of the market – that I’m afraid is impossible – anyone thinking “Well Elliott Wave can tell me that” – no it can’t, if it could they’d be no need for alternative counts, EW is good, but it is not precise and never will be.  As I’ve mentioned many times before it;s probably the best thing out there for labelling waves correctly in hindsight, but even as we speak the EW experts have recently had to alter their wave counts to suit market conditions!

Let me be real clear on this, NOTHING and I mean NOTHING works precisely in the trading world.

Looking forward:

Well first let’s look backwards – the 2000, 2002, 2007 & 2009 market cycles came in bang on time.  The 2013 cycle sort of worked but so far the chart (S&P500) says it didn’t, that MIGHT change when we have much more price data available on the charts.  Referring to the May 2013 Time Cycle a 7.5% drop was not enough for my liking to confirm the cycle – it MUST make a print on a MONTHLY chart that is noticable and May 2013 was not – If you view the same date on the FTSE100 Index then you can see the effect it’s having on the FTSE100 Index ( sideways trading range for nearly 12 months!)

1

As you know the above Time Cycle was due between May 20th-28th 2013 and it came bang in to the day, I was hoping this effect occurred on the S&P500 chart rather than the FTSE100 but I trade both so no problems for me, but those in the USA that just focus on the S&P500 it is a problem as that market has continued to RISE.

Moving on, the next set of dates are in mid 2015 and then end of 2016.  the most important of those being the 2016 date.

If I threw enough time cycles on the chart one would hit, to me that’s not accurate, I want virtual exactness, the 2016 date should be a LOW and it should be pretty accurate, however, the 2017 date could also impede the 2016 date a little – either way 2016-17 should be a LOW point in the market.

This cycle has been pretty much spot on for over 200 years

1

I’ve coloured the 2016 date RED – for me this signifies something and makes the date stand out.

2

There is no way to know how or If a Time cycle will act or comply with a possible date until it happens, this means you have to have a suitable way to trade whatever happens.

My outlook for the year 2014 still remains up into the general March area and then either sideways or down into October and then up around October time for the year end.

My outlook from now until 2016 is still sideways (preferred outlook) or outright bearish.

BUT whatever actually happens I’ll be trading as per my rules of trading, not based on hope or assumptions.

 

 

ESSENTIAL/MUST read

It’s not often that I do this – it’s a Saturday afternoon and I’ve interrupted my day to post this.

You have to read the March 2014 issue of Elliott Wave Theorist – it does mean BUYING it, you don’t obtain this type of information for free I’m afraid.  You will need to subscribe to the Elliott Wave Theorist to obtain March 2014 issue

You are highly unlikely EVER to read the content of the report in the mainstream media and it also helps to confirm/back-up what I’ve been saying about the Fed and USA Government.  If you’re an American then the implications are massive not only for your Investments but your lives, If you’re not an American citizen then it’s bound to have an impact on your Investments/Life to some degree – better to be prepared, than “suddenly out of the blue” find out

In fact this report/months EWT applies to EVERYBODY in the world, it is that important, all I can do is alert you (you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t force it to drink) you’ve been alerted!

Here’s a link:

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=statgrphc&url=/wave/022114aff&tcn=ag022114&acn=hvt1211