The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
(more…)

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How to DOUBLE your return with half the risk

This post is for the Investors amongst you rather than the traders, although it is something that you should ALL be aware of regardless of your stance.

If you have or plan to obtain a Stock Market Almanac – this strategy is in there and has been for a number of years!

(more…)

You were Warned

I did warn you of 18th August 2015 as being a key cycle date- 3 months agooooooooo

look back over previous blog posts – NOT the site – Blog posts and you will SEE

So lets recap – May 2013 Time Cycle bang on to the DAY and August 18th 2015 Time Cycle – Bang on to the DAY

Funny how this pie in the sky time cycle stuff seems to be so accurate!

Next cycle date is 6th December 2016 which turns this sorry affair UP UP UP

so as the rest of the world is likely to be wallowing in bear market pity, I will be getting ready to go full on in the market and long long long

New look at Time Cycles

The graph below need some explanation, see underneath the chart for that, in the meantime just take 5 minutes to look and think about what you see on the chart:

1

DOWN                               UP                                        DOWN

The first thing that you should see is that ALL coloured lines occur at key turning points in the market.

Let me tell you what i “see”:

The BLUE lines are the MAIN Time Cycle that drives the market, so for example you can see in 1966 this Time Cycle started until 1981 – this time cycle determines Inflationary/Deflationary times and in 1966-1981 it was Deflationary so you HAVE to expect a depressed stock market, which is exactly what happened.

1981-1998 was INFLATIONARY hence the massively rising stock market – again as expected – this MAIN time Cycle alternates between Inflationary and Deflationary and from 1998-2016 guess what? It’s been DEFLATIONARY as expected and the stock market HAS complied accordingly!

Have a wild stab in the dark of what type of Time Cycle to expect from 2016 until 2034?  INFLATIONARY? Correct and with Inflationary cycles what should you expect from the stock market? Rising that’s right.

Now, look at the RED line:

This is a DIFFERENT Time Cycle to the blue line, but what you do is project the RED time cycle from the preceding BLUE line, so for example, to get the RED Time Cycle for 1982, I’ve projected it off the 1966 BLUE Time Cycle date – just look at how ACCURATE these are in key turning points in the market:

The 1968 TOP came in right on time! projected from 1950, 1982 came bang on projected from 1966 and 2000 came in a month or two early but still very accurate, projected from 1982, now projected from 1998 = August 2015!!!!!

Have to wait and see what happens around that date, but it should be a turning point when looking back at it in a few years time.

Right the BLACK lines – these are a variation of the BLUE Time Cycle but projected from decades early, so to get the 1973 date that was projected from, wait for it………1932!!!! and the 2007 BLACK line was projected from the 1966 BLUE line – now STOP and think – look how accurate they are and guess what – that projection tells you WHEN to expect a PLUNGE or major proportion – think what 2007 did to the world economy and then think if you knew what I know you could have projected a stock market plunge of major degree back in 1966 or even early you could do this way back to 1800’s!!

Now the GREEN line – well this one backs up the black line, because the green line is calculated exactly as the BLACK line but from the START of the previous UP cycle – this is to find the mid point of the NEXT UP cycle, this mid point is the point where prices subdue into and then continue UPWARDS.

In the BLACK lines it’s the point where prices FALL – So you project from the START of either the Inflationary or Deflationary cycles to work out the UP or DOWN turning points of the NEXT cycle, so as 1966 cycle was expected and was in fact a DOWN (Deflationary) cycle you KNOW the 2007 date should be a major crash and it was the same for the 1973 date.

The 1994 GREEN line was projected from the 1950 Blue (not shown) cycle start date as that was in fact INFLATIONARY and UPWARDS – and it came in bang on target.

On the chart above I’ve not explained 1974, 1987, 2003 or 2009 – I’ll do that in another post as the way you calculate them is slightly different to these shown, very similar but varying other Time Cycles.

The one thing to note – the RED lines typically follow the BLUE lines and cause the double tops, well this time the RED cycle arrives in 2015 and BEFORE the BLUE cycle of Dec 2016 – the last time this happened was in 1949 and 1950 and the RED cycle turned the markets UPWARDS from its date followed by a slight crash into the BLUE cycle date and then bang the UP cycle continued to 1966 BLUE cycle line.  Be Interesting what happens this time around.

ANOTHER thing to note – the price LOWS in between the BLUE cycle lines of the DEFLATIONARY cycles (1966-1981 and 1998-2016) the LOW points are NEVER exceeded, the cycle ends higher than that low point – look at 1982, prices FELL from 1981 BLUE cycle into the RED cycle, the RED cycle forced prices down – why DOWN? because the RED cycle arrived AFTER the BLUE cycle – look at 1968!

This time around the RED cycle arrives BEFORE the BLUE cycle date.

Until you see these cycles for yourself and you plot them on a long-term chart you don’t really believe they work, but they clearly DO.  Now not all, but a LOT of these cycles can be

I will of course in time document expectations for the next UP cycle that occurs in 2016.

This is NOT my own work, it’s what I have learnt from studying the works of my preferred GANN course provider – all the credit has to go to him for discovering all of this and there’s a few more cycles I’ve not shown to keep the charts clutter free, but to aid in such analysis those cycles should be added

The Currency War Has Expanded to New Fronts

The Currency War Has Expanded to New Fronts

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: This article was adapted, with permission, from the February issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Elliott Wave International. All data is as of Jan. 30, 2015. Click here to read the complete version of the article, including specific near-term forecasts, for free.

The “Currency War” we discussed in our October issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and again in the January issue has expanded to new fronts, as world central banks fought to remain economically competitive by trying to push down the value of their currencies.

Singapore became at least the ninth nation to “jump on the easing bandwagon” in January, employing loose monetary measures designed to reduce the value of the Singapore dollar.

Our long term bullish forecast for the U.S. dollar remains on track, and this month the Dollar Index jumped to 95.527, retracing 50% of its decline from 121.020 in July 2011 to 70.700 in March 2008.

Everyone Loves the Buck
Some chart labels have been redacted to preserve value for EWI’s paying subscribers. To get access to the fully labeled chart, click here.

Short term, the rally is stretched like a taut piece of rope: Prices have closed higher for 30 out of the past 39 weeks. Recently, a 10-day average of a poll of currency traders (courtesy trade-futures.com) showed 93.7% dollar bulls, an all-time record high. Also, Large Speculators in futures and options, who are generally trend-followers, now hold an all-time record net-long position of 72,897 contracts, as shown on the above chart.

The extreme in these measures shows the strength of the rally but also reflects a trend that is ripe for a correction.

Click here to continue reading the complete version of the article as part of a lengthy excerpt from the newest issue — including specific market forecasts, fully labeled charts and more — 100% free.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Currency War Has Expanded to New Fronts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

You just cannot find better Independent analysis of the markets – I’ve been an EWI subscriber for years and although I don’t fully subscribe to their Elliott Wave theory I still value their research and analysis of the markets very very highly – The Hovis Trader

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

The great “inflated” expectations for gold, oil, commodities — and now stocks

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s Note: You can read the text version of this story below the video.

On January 21, one of the biggest financial lawsuits in recent history came to a costly end. The accused, ratings behemoth Standard & Poor’s, agreed to a $1.4 billion settlement for “inflating credit ratings on toxic assets,” thus accelerating and exacerbating the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Settlement aside, there is a far bigger issue here than business ethics or conflicts of interests, which is not likely to get a hearing in the court of mainstream finance.

Which is: The professionals who are supposed to assess investment risks are no better at it than you or I.

Case in point: Think back to November 30, 2001. The world’s largest seller of natural gas and electricity has gone from cash cow to dry bone. Its share price had plummeted 99%, from $90 to just under $1. YET– the company continued to enjoy an “INVESTMENT GRADE” rating.

The company’s name: Enron. Four days later, it filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Enron seems like a distant memory, but what about the subprime mortgage debacle? Moody’s rating service slashed the ratings of 131 subprime bonds due to higher than expected defaults, in July 2007 two years after the market for non-traditional mortgages had already turned.

Spot a trend here? The “experts” failure to anticipate huge trend changes in companies, and in the overall economy. In the first edition of his business best-seller Conquer the Crash, EWI president Bob Prechter wrote:

The most widely utilized ratings services are almost always woefully late in warning of problems within financial institutions. They often seem to get news about a company around the time everyone else does… In several cases, a company can collapse before the standard ratings services know what hit it.”

So here’s the question: What are the experts not seeing now that you and I need to prepare for?

What about gold? In 2012, with prices nearly reclaiming all-time high territory, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing campaign was supposed to keep the wind at gold’s back.

“Ben Bernanke has just offered gold investors a… gilded invitation to participate in the greatest secular bull market of our time.” (April 14, 2012, Motley Fool)

Then this happened:

The same goes for the 2008 peaks in oil and commodities — two more “safe-havens” that were supposed to benefit from the Fed’s money-printing campaign, but instead prices fell to lows not seen since the 2007 financial crisis.

So, that leaves the remaining outlier — equities, which have climbed to record highs. And, according to the experts, the path of least resistance remains up. A December 14, 2014 article in the New York Times:

“We don’t see a lot on the horizon that could derail the U.S stock market in particular.”

Our January 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist urges caution with this single chart of the S&P 500’s year-end valuations since 1927. Every major peak of the last 90 years landed well outside the normal range: 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007.

We believe the precarious placement of 2014 sends a similar message: “The stock market and the economy are not in a new multi-decade recovery as economists believe, but very late in a transition phase from boom to bust.”


Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Heard about DEflation?

Heres further detail of the Deflation time bomb over hanging us at this time

Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts

There’s more to deflation than falling prices

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.

Yet in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s headline says, “Deflation is Starting to Win.”

Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:

… the number of countries experiencing ‘lowflation’ has been steadily rising from 2011 (blue line). The eurozone tipped into outright deflation in December, with Germany, Britain and the US also seeing prices rise at near record lows.

The Telegraph, January 14

But as Prechter explains, falling prices are an effect of deflation.

Deflation is not a period of generally falling prices; it is a period of contraction in the total amount of money plus credit. Falling prices in an environment of stable money is indeed a good thing. In fact, in a real-money system, it is the norm, because technology makes things cheaper to produce. But when debt expands faster than production, it becomes overblown, then wiped out, and prices rise and fall in response.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2015

So a major debt buildup is a precondition of deflation. Do we see this today? The third edition of Conquer the Crash shows the answer.

Total dollar-denominated debt has skyrocketed since 1990. The upward trend turned slightly down during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but has since crept higher.

How fast and how far can this nearly $60 trillion in debt dwindle?

It’s instructive to review the collapse of the 1920s credit bubble.

On the left side of the chart, note how debt deflation needed nearly a decade to unwind.

Today’s mountain of debt is far higher than in 1929, yet our indicators suggest that the next debt deflation could unfold much more rapidly.

The third edition of Conquer the Crash provides 157 forecasts. Here are three:

  • Real estate values will begin to fall again, ultimately more than they did in the 1930s.
  • Hedge funds, mutual funds, money-market funds, managed accounts and brokerage accounts will go out of favor — many will go out of existence.
  • Financial corporations previously bailed out by the Fed and the U.S. government will fail again, as will new ones.

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

You were Warned well inadvance

I posted this in February 2014, I’d read it again and then look at what’s been happening since September:

https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/now-is-the-time-to-beware/

A little time off

Hi all,

I’ve not disappeared, just taking some time away from the blog and markets.

I’m still fully trading, but rather than being at my computer, I’m doing a few projects around the home and away from the screens.

quick look @ S&P500, tells me that its currently stalling at new highs, It’s been a sideways market since March 2014, overall the trend is stalling but within an uptrend = bias to the upside.

Could it turn into a down trend?  Of course it could, potentially but certainly not confirmed is leg 1 and 2 of an Elliott Wave, but that needs much more content and detail to be proven correct and it is at odds with the overall direction of the market, but it is a possibility.

In my opinion you cannot make classifications that the trend has changed – that would simply be a pure guess – W.D. Gann said “Do not guess, trade facts”.  The overriding facts are uptrend since 2009, no bearish confirmation of late, pullbacks in the overall trend in line with previous in both TIME and PRICE so the outlook must be to the upside and Bullish until the market proves us wrong.

I have no doubt that in the next few months the market (S&P500/FTSE100 etc) will have a fairly decent sell off, I just don’t know exactly when and neither does anybody else.  Following that sell-off will be a very decent buying opportunity, certainly for the short-term and maybe for the long term.

Only time will tell exactly what happens, the trick is being part of it or out of it, not on the wrong side of it – that is what helps you to make money from the markets.

Essential material

Ever wondered why trading has such a high failure rate and why when YOU try to trade methods you end up losing?

Because approx 80% of the crap out there does not work! and you buy it!  I am very fortunate that I’ve never been sucked into the scams out there.

I cannot tell you just how valuable that report is, ignore the wave count parts, unless you’re into EW, the real content is contained for free within the document.

Triangles Offer Traders Important Forecasting Information
Find out about 14 Elliott wave trading insights

By Elliott Wave International

These days there’s no shortage of books about trading. You could read for months before you find a book that applies to your trading style.

The free 45-page eBook — The Best of Trader’s Classroom — is specifically for Elliott wave traders. This excellent eBook will save time and deliver the knowledge you want.

It’s written by Elliott wave trader Jeffrey Kennedy: He had individuals like you in mind when he said:

I began my career as a small trader, so I know firsthand how hard it can be to get simple explanations of methods that consistently work. In more than 15 years as an analyst since my early trading days, I’ve learned many lessons, and I don’t think that they should have to be learned the hard way.

The Best of Trader’s Classroom offers 14 trading insights that you can use.

Consider these examples of what you’ll learn:

— Use bar patterns to spot trading setups
— Use the Wave Principle to set protective stops
— Identify Fibonacci retracements
— Apply Fibonacci ratios to real-world trading

Jeffrey also discusses corrective patterns, including the triangle formation. Here’s an edited excerpt:

Triangles are probably the easiest corrective wave pattern to identify, because prices simply trade sideways during these periods. [The graphic below] shows the different shapes triangles can take.

Triangles offer an important piece of forecasting information — they only occur just prior to the final wave of a sequence. This is why triangles are strictly limited to the wave four, B or X positions. In other words, if you run into a triangle, you know the train is coming into the station.

Jeffrey goes on to provide three real-world examples of the triangle price pattern. Here’s one of them with his accompanying commentary.

[The chart above] shows a slight variation of a contracting triangle, called a running triangle. A running triangle occurs when wave B makes a new extreme beyond the origin of wave A. This type of corrective wave pattern occurs frequently in commodities.


Learn more about Jeffrey Kennedy’s 14 trading insights in The Best of Trader’s Classroom.This chart-packed 45-page eBook is yours to access FREE after you join Club EWI. Membership is also free.

Follow this link for your free download of The Best of Trader’s Classroom.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Triangles Offer Traders Important Forecasting Information. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.