How to make money from the markets – Introduction

There’s a huge number of myths out there about investing and trading that are quite simply – a load of rubbish.

Over the next few months, I’m going to show you how to make money from ANY market.

The first question you have to answer is:

  1. What do you want from the markets?

 

This will be personable to you – It could be anything!

This is what I want from the market:

  • When I decide to trade the market, I want to beat the markets return!
  • I aim for 25%+ and from that I know that over 3 years+ I will beat the market

so from that base I then set about formulating a plan of action to try to obtain 25% + return from the market annually

As I’m a very lazy person, naturally I wanted the easiest route to achieving this goal.

There is no Holy Grail and by that I mean some unknown, unknown that no-ones discovered yet that will let you be right 100% of the time.

Take a breath, think about it – there is not one system, method or technique that works 100% of the time.

  • That then means that you have got to take positions based on faith, trust and gambling

Yep that’s right, its a gamble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So if it’s a gamble, then don’t you think it makes sense to remove as much risk to the gamble, guess, as is possible?  Of course it does.

That is what I’m going to show you in this series of posts

I’m going to show you how to AIM for that 25%+ annual returns from a variety of methods

There’s lots of methods to trade by – your next important question you’ll need to answer for yourself is

  • Are you willing to trade boringly and EXACTLY the same time after time

If your answer to this question is NO – then trading is probably NOT for you – you cannot start mixing and matching and varying what you do

For example I trade ONLY when the market is in a perfect set-up formation that I have devised (and i will show you this) – if the conditions aren’t there, then I won’t be putting money at risk.

So over the coming months I will show you how to make money from the markets, how to identify potential trades and how to think properly.

This series of posts will be based at the complete novice level, but it’s applicable to professional traders too – the whole aim of trading/Investing is to make money from the money you put at risk.

Now there’s only 2 ways to do that:

  1. Invest and then leave (Buying and Holding) or
  2. Trading

I like to be as much in control as I can of my money so I sit in the traders camp, as I’m often sat in cash waiting to take a position and then my positions tend to last days-weeks or months not years.

You’re going to need to understand and use basic mathematical concepts, because I’m afraid it is all about the maths whether you turn a profit or not!

Let’s say you make the 25% per year goal, if you start with £3,000 then over 25 years that will grow to £794K!

That’s a nice payback for extracting money from the markets.

Now if you’re a buy and hold investor then you will be fully exposed to market forces and you’re likely to experience some pretty hefty corrections along the way over the years – you are highly unlikely to hit the 25%+ goal per annum using this method – you might do it a few years out of 10, but not 10/10 years.

Make sure your signed up to receive posts when I make them, so you don’t miss the next one – this will look at the market as a beast in it’s simplest form.

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Well WHAT Happened?

For YEARS I had shouted about the relevance of 6/7th December 2016,

I really don’t need to speak anymore of it as the chart below tells you all that you need to know

By the way the chart is of an ETF that tracks the UK’s FTSE100 Index at a 5 X Leveraged rate (yes I do use this trading vehicle):

96

80% in a few months ain’t that bad

What made the trade feasible?

  1. A Low was expected for the Time Cycle due on the 6/7th Dec 2016
  2. This Time Cycle had been forecast YEARS in advance and the outlook was ALWAYS to expect it to be a LOW
  3. Other confirming Indicators I look at were also signalling a low

The position was a high probability trade based on numerous confirming factors

2017 Market Outlook – Gann Style

Gann used to market his annual predictions for a lot of money – essentially all he was doing was looking back 10 and 20 years and projecting market movements for the forecast based on what the market actually did 120 and 240 mths prior.

I was going to do this last year but didn’t have time, so here it is now – half way through the year.

This is a very simple method and real easy to do – I’m not saying it works – What we’ll do is come back to this blog in Jan 2018 and update the “Current” chart to show what the market did and if there’s some correlation

Notice the big plunges that both the 1997 and 2007 market had in the latter stages of the year – also notice the 1997 plunge and subsequent market action up into 1998, Now get a chart of 1987 and see the formation the market made from plunge to end of 1987!

Gann’s market predictions were a little more detailed and specific than this, but not too much

Here’s the CURRENT market action of the FTSE100 Index:

FTSE100 - 2017 - 6 mths

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 2007 (SIDEWAYS):

FTSE100 - 2007

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 1997 (UP:

FTSE100 - 1997

 

FTSE100 Triangle/Wedge forming

Triangles (Wedges) are a combination of indecision and uncertainty – Even better when the wedge forms as part of a sequence of consecutive Inside days

ftse100-wedge

Nothing in Trading is 100% – what typically happens is when the high or the low of the last bar in the wedge is broken then that’s the direction its heading in – you can place stops either under the low or above the high of the last bar in the sequence (see chart for target values) or at the 50% point of the last bar as more often than not price just breaks cleanly away without retracing – this makes the targets on the chart twice as profitable!

Please note: due to limitations of my software Ex Ret 2 = 1 times risk, Ex Ret 3 = 2 times amount risked etc (which is the last bar on the chart)

Trade at your own risk – no responsibility accepted

 

The NEXT MAJOR BEARISH market section in 17 years time[2034]

There’s loads of Cycles dates in the next UP phase and those have been previously published on the pages on here and onto blog posts too – please take your time to familiarise yourself with them.

This next UP cycle is as the name suggests UP – refer to a chart of 1982-2000 for an approx view of what it should look like – in essence it will be UP!

So what about the NEXT DOWN cycle then?

Well I’m going to publish what to look for 17-34 years PRIOR – keep a reference of this page to see if its correct or not – it’s not extensive – I’ve published on other posts other KEY dates to watch as well.

Some of the following dates will NOT work out – they’ll fail or not appear – this happens in all the previous sections going back a hundred+ years, its just something that you have to accept, however, many will work!

The market of choice at the moment is the NASDAQ – it’s where all the fever money has gone into of late, prior to the 1990’s it was the DJIA – you need to use charts for the market of the time.- why? Because you need to watch the market where man/woman are placing most of their speculative money, this market will react well to Time Cycles and show you the panic and greed of mankind all reflected in a handy chart of actual market prices recorded and displayed for all to see.

Here’s a table of Timings:

Box 1                 Box 2                 Box 3                 Box 4

09/02/1966        14/05/1969         07/10/1974         18/06/1982   – Chart 1 (1966-1983)

14/01/2000        10/10/2002         11/10/2007         21/10/2015   – Chart 2 (2000-2017)

05/07/2032        04/05/2035         26/02/2041         21/12/2050   – Projected from Chart 2 DATES

23/09/2032        22/06/2035         06/04/2041         25/01/2051   – Projected from Chart 1 DATES
(more…)

You were Warned

I did warn you of 18th August 2015 as being a key cycle date- 3 months agooooooooo

look back over previous blog posts – NOT the site – Blog posts and you will SEE

So lets recap – May 2013 Time Cycle bang on to the DAY and August 18th 2015 Time Cycle – Bang on to the DAY

Funny how this pie in the sky time cycle stuff seems to be so accurate!

Next cycle date is 6th December 2016 which turns this sorry affair UP UP UP

so as the rest of the world is likely to be wallowing in bear market pity, I will be getting ready to go full on in the market and long long long

New look at Time Cycles

The graph below need some explanation, see underneath the chart for that, in the meantime just take 5 minutes to look and think about what you see on the chart:

1

DOWN                               UP                                        DOWN

The first thing that you should see is that ALL coloured lines occur at key turning points in the market.

Let me tell you what i “see”:

The BLUE lines are the MAIN Time Cycle that drives the market, so for example you can see in 1966 this Time Cycle started until 1981 – this time cycle determines Inflationary/Deflationary times and in 1966-1981 it was Deflationary so you HAVE to expect a depressed stock market, which is exactly what happened.

1981-1998 was INFLATIONARY hence the massively rising stock market – again as expected – this MAIN time Cycle alternates between Inflationary and Deflationary and from 1998-2016 guess what? It’s been DEFLATIONARY as expected and the stock market HAS complied accordingly!

Have a wild stab in the dark of what type of Time Cycle to expect from 2016 until 2034?  INFLATIONARY? Correct and with Inflationary cycles what should you expect from the stock market? Rising that’s right.

Now, look at the RED line:

This is a DIFFERENT Time Cycle to the blue line, but what you do is project the RED time cycle from the preceding BLUE line, so for example, to get the RED Time Cycle for 1982, I’ve projected it off the 1966 BLUE Time Cycle date – just look at how ACCURATE these are in key turning points in the market:

The 1968 TOP came in right on time! projected from 1950, 1982 came bang on projected from 1966 and 2000 came in a month or two early but still very accurate, projected from 1982, now projected from 1998 = August 2015!!!!!

Have to wait and see what happens around that date, but it should be a turning point when looking back at it in a few years time.

Right the BLACK lines – these are a variation of the BLUE Time Cycle but projected from decades early, so to get the 1973 date that was projected from, wait for it………1932!!!! and the 2007 BLACK line was projected from the 1966 BLUE line – now STOP and think – look how accurate they are and guess what – that projection tells you WHEN to expect a PLUNGE or major proportion – think what 2007 did to the world economy and then think if you knew what I know you could have projected a stock market plunge of major degree back in 1966 or even early you could do this way back to 1800’s!!

Now the GREEN line – well this one backs up the black line, because the green line is calculated exactly as the BLACK line but from the START of the previous UP cycle – this is to find the mid point of the NEXT UP cycle, this mid point is the point where prices subdue into and then continue UPWARDS.

In the BLACK lines it’s the point where prices FALL – So you project from the START of either the Inflationary or Deflationary cycles to work out the UP or DOWN turning points of the NEXT cycle, so as 1966 cycle was expected and was in fact a DOWN (Deflationary) cycle you KNOW the 2007 date should be a major crash and it was the same for the 1973 date.

The 1994 GREEN line was projected from the 1950 Blue (not shown) cycle start date as that was in fact INFLATIONARY and UPWARDS – and it came in bang on target.

On the chart above I’ve not explained 1974, 1987, 2003 or 2009 – I’ll do that in another post as the way you calculate them is slightly different to these shown, very similar but varying other Time Cycles.

The one thing to note – the RED lines typically follow the BLUE lines and cause the double tops, well this time the RED cycle arrives in 2015 and BEFORE the BLUE cycle of Dec 2016 – the last time this happened was in 1949 and 1950 and the RED cycle turned the markets UPWARDS from its date followed by a slight crash into the BLUE cycle date and then bang the UP cycle continued to 1966 BLUE cycle line.  Be Interesting what happens this time around.

ANOTHER thing to note – the price LOWS in between the BLUE cycle lines of the DEFLATIONARY cycles (1966-1981 and 1998-2016) the LOW points are NEVER exceeded, the cycle ends higher than that low point – look at 1982, prices FELL from 1981 BLUE cycle into the RED cycle, the RED cycle forced prices down – why DOWN? because the RED cycle arrived AFTER the BLUE cycle – look at 1968!

This time around the RED cycle arrives BEFORE the BLUE cycle date.

Until you see these cycles for yourself and you plot them on a long-term chart you don’t really believe they work, but they clearly DO.  Now not all, but a LOT of these cycles can be

I will of course in time document expectations for the next UP cycle that occurs in 2016.

This is NOT my own work, it’s what I have learnt from studying the works of my preferred GANN course provider – all the credit has to go to him for discovering all of this and there’s a few more cycles I’ve not shown to keep the charts clutter free, but to aid in such analysis those cycles should be added

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named

Actually this article was written and produced in September 2014 – I just didn’t publish it on this site – and NOW Deflation is panicking all the finance chiefs of Europe – Predicted years ago and continually – WELL DONE Elliot Wave International for your bold and analytically stance throughout this Deflationary Depression we’ve been in since March 2000.

Very few people called it right – from recollection a handful – well done

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named
The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a “Japan-style” deflation. Here’s our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It’s happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that’s akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: “deflation.”

And it’s not just “deflation.” You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

“Falling prices during deflation actually encourage consumers to spend.”

But once you add the following two very distinct words, there’s no way to turn that frown upside down. And those words are“Japan-style” deflation.

Japan has languished in a deflationary cycle pretty much since the late 1990s, its once booming economy reduced to ‘lost decades’ of stagnation. Europe is now teetering on the edge.” (Sept. 19, Associated Press)

Which begs an obvious question: Weren’t Europe’s central banks supposed to prevent this very scenario from happening via their unprecedented, 4-year-long campaign of “money-printing,” bond-buying and interest-rate-slashing?

The answer to that question is… yes. Those actions were indeed supposed to boost inflation.

What’s more, no one can say the European Central Bank didn’t utilize every available tool in their arsenal to try and accomplish that end. The problem is they were fighting a losing battle.

And, we are both happy and sad at the same time to report that from the very beginning, when the first rate cut was loaded into the save-the-economy cannon, we at Elliott Wave International foresaw that Europe’s retreat toward deflation was unavoidable.

Here’s a quick recap of what led us to that conclusion.

— 2011 —

January 2011: The “D” word is way off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices has fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation. Writes one January 22, 2011 LA Times article:

“Around the world, many countries aren’t confronted with the debilitating forces of deflation, but the opposite — inflation. Annualized inflation in the euro zone rose above the 2% target rate for the first time in more than 2 years.”

February 2011: The European Central Bank unveils its brand-new Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), extending nearly half a trillion euros in 3-year loans to banks at negligible interest rates — to stimulate the economy (and inflation).

July 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index declines, prompting a sigh of relief, not a shudder of fear from the Bank of England, who says “we can now breathe a little easier.”

(VS.)

Our August 2011 European Financial Forecast:

“We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks’ paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread.”

September 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index peaks at 5.2% and officially sets the downtrend in motion.

— 2012 —

January 2012: The Bank of England adds another 50 billion pounds to its asset purchase program, bringing its 3-year campaign of “money-printing” to 325 billion. The European Central Bank is less than 14 years old, yet total assets at the ECB breach 3 trillion.

February/March 2012: U.K. producer price inflation comes in higher than expected, prompting one U.K. economist to say: “PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes,” the clinical term for those who fear deflation. The economist goes on to recommend that sufferers “seek therapy.” (March 12 Wall Street Journal)

(VS.)

Our July 2012 European Financial Forecast:

“Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they’re again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009.”

August 2012 European Financial Forecast makes the first comparison of Europe to Japan:

“European leaders,” by slashing rates and printing money “seem determined to replicate Japan’s experience. Their efforts will not stop consumer price deflation.”

— 2014 —

May 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“The chart shows that British CPI accelerated lower after falling from a counter-trend peak of 5.2% back in September 2011, with year-over-year price growth just ticks above its late-2009 low.

“More than half of the 28 EU nations either teeter on the brink of deflation or have succumbed to falling prices already.

“The following chart shows that economic stagnation has reached even Germany, Europe’s most robust economy.”

September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“In a related phenomenon, the press has now jumped on the slew of similarities between Europe’s flagging economy and Japan’s… Clearly, the parallel paths of the two regions have become impossible for the press to ignore.

“The central bank’s latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners. Also like Japan, the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks’ overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.

The world has finally woken up to the possibility of a Japan-style deflation in Europe — years after the writing was already on the wall.

Now, you need to prepare for what’s to come.

The best part is, Elliott Wave International’s Founder and President, Robert Prechter, as written a book that can help you do just that. And you can read 8 chapters of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, free.


8 Chapters of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash — FREE

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You’ll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson “Conquer the Crash Collection” Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

You just cannot find better Independent analysis of the markets – I’ve been an EWI subscriber for years and although I don’t fully subscribe to their Elliott Wave theory I still value their research and analysis of the markets very very highly – The Hovis Trader

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

The great “inflated” expectations for gold, oil, commodities — and now stocks

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s Note: You can read the text version of this story below the video.

On January 21, one of the biggest financial lawsuits in recent history came to a costly end. The accused, ratings behemoth Standard & Poor’s, agreed to a $1.4 billion settlement for “inflating credit ratings on toxic assets,” thus accelerating and exacerbating the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Settlement aside, there is a far bigger issue here than business ethics or conflicts of interests, which is not likely to get a hearing in the court of mainstream finance.

Which is: The professionals who are supposed to assess investment risks are no better at it than you or I.

Case in point: Think back to November 30, 2001. The world’s largest seller of natural gas and electricity has gone from cash cow to dry bone. Its share price had plummeted 99%, from $90 to just under $1. YET– the company continued to enjoy an “INVESTMENT GRADE” rating.

The company’s name: Enron. Four days later, it filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Enron seems like a distant memory, but what about the subprime mortgage debacle? Moody’s rating service slashed the ratings of 131 subprime bonds due to higher than expected defaults, in July 2007 two years after the market for non-traditional mortgages had already turned.

Spot a trend here? The “experts” failure to anticipate huge trend changes in companies, and in the overall economy. In the first edition of his business best-seller Conquer the Crash, EWI president Bob Prechter wrote:

The most widely utilized ratings services are almost always woefully late in warning of problems within financial institutions. They often seem to get news about a company around the time everyone else does… In several cases, a company can collapse before the standard ratings services know what hit it.”

So here’s the question: What are the experts not seeing now that you and I need to prepare for?

What about gold? In 2012, with prices nearly reclaiming all-time high territory, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing campaign was supposed to keep the wind at gold’s back.

“Ben Bernanke has just offered gold investors a… gilded invitation to participate in the greatest secular bull market of our time.” (April 14, 2012, Motley Fool)

Then this happened:

The same goes for the 2008 peaks in oil and commodities — two more “safe-havens” that were supposed to benefit from the Fed’s money-printing campaign, but instead prices fell to lows not seen since the 2007 financial crisis.

So, that leaves the remaining outlier — equities, which have climbed to record highs. And, according to the experts, the path of least resistance remains up. A December 14, 2014 article in the New York Times:

“We don’t see a lot on the horizon that could derail the U.S stock market in particular.”

Our January 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist urges caution with this single chart of the S&P 500’s year-end valuations since 1927. Every major peak of the last 90 years landed well outside the normal range: 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007.

We believe the precarious placement of 2014 sends a similar message: “The stock market and the economy are not in a new multi-decade recovery as economists believe, but very late in a transition phase from boom to bust.”


Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Heard about DEflation?

Heres further detail of the Deflation time bomb over hanging us at this time

Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts

There’s more to deflation than falling prices

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.

Yet in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s headline says, “Deflation is Starting to Win.”

Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:

… the number of countries experiencing ‘lowflation’ has been steadily rising from 2011 (blue line). The eurozone tipped into outright deflation in December, with Germany, Britain and the US also seeing prices rise at near record lows.

The Telegraph, January 14

But as Prechter explains, falling prices are an effect of deflation.

Deflation is not a period of generally falling prices; it is a period of contraction in the total amount of money plus credit. Falling prices in an environment of stable money is indeed a good thing. In fact, in a real-money system, it is the norm, because technology makes things cheaper to produce. But when debt expands faster than production, it becomes overblown, then wiped out, and prices rise and fall in response.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2015

So a major debt buildup is a precondition of deflation. Do we see this today? The third edition of Conquer the Crash shows the answer.

Total dollar-denominated debt has skyrocketed since 1990. The upward trend turned slightly down during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but has since crept higher.

How fast and how far can this nearly $60 trillion in debt dwindle?

It’s instructive to review the collapse of the 1920s credit bubble.

On the left side of the chart, note how debt deflation needed nearly a decade to unwind.

Today’s mountain of debt is far higher than in 1929, yet our indicators suggest that the next debt deflation could unfold much more rapidly.

The third edition of Conquer the Crash provides 157 forecasts. Here are three:

  • Real estate values will begin to fall again, ultimately more than they did in the 1930s.
  • Hedge funds, mutual funds, money-market funds, managed accounts and brokerage accounts will go out of favor — many will go out of existence.
  • Financial corporations previously bailed out by the Fed and the U.S. government will fail again, as will new ones.

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.