You were Warned

I did warn you of 18th August 2015 as being a key cycle date- 3 months agooooooooo

look back over previous blog posts – NOT the site – Blog posts and you will SEE

So lets recap – May 2013 Time Cycle bang on to the DAY and August 18th 2015 Time Cycle – Bang on to the DAY

Funny how this pie in the sky time cycle stuff seems to be so accurate!

Next cycle date is 6th December 2016 which turns this sorry affair UP UP UP

so as the rest of the world is likely to be wallowing in bear market pity, I will be getting ready to go full on in the market and long long long

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The Famous 13 year Cycle

Following on from previous cycles, we’ll take a look at the 13 year cycle – this cycle is in the BIBLE and it represents the BEAST cycle as it’s approx 666 weeks in length (actually 666-668 weeks, but lets not be picky)

This cycle is actually 5 cycles and based on the way you calculate the varying cycles they come out very close to each other in length – you could derive Phi from these cycles as some cycles are based on 13 revolutions and others 8 and 5 – those are Fibonacci numbers and show up within this cycle.

But I don’t use Fibonacci in this cycle, its a coincidence of the concept, obviously it influences it somehow, but I never intentionally set out to include it, it just happens to be there as a result of the cycles.

Look at the chart:

13 year cycle main clusters

See the beauty of this 13 year cycle – its fairly clear!

On the face of it it looks like it failed in 2013 – wait until you look at the close up before judging.

Let’s look at the crash of 1987 – this explains it

13 yea r cycle 1987

Lets look at 2000

13 year cycle 2000

Now lets take a look at the beast cycle in the SP500 Index

Beast cycle in SP500

It came in RIGHT on target, but it did not have the desired effect on the market, but you cannot deny it came in right on time!

Let’s look at the beast cycle in my main index the FTSE100 Index

Beast cycle in FTSE100

AGAIN it came in RIGHT on time and in the FTSE100 it forced the market sideways for months!  Now in my book a flat sideways market is just as destructive and bearish as a right out market crash.

I got out of the market at the very top bar in May 2013

Now what about it’s next cycle?  Well it’s due in 2026 (2013+13) but WHEN?

13 year cycle 2026

There is a cluster in March 2026 – but the key time period has to be end Feb right through to end March 2026

ALL the dates in the above charts are projected from 1949 and 1987 and just look at how tightly packed all these dates are projected from those dates – that is AMAZING

Now you know I was previously talking about (in other posts) projecting the mid cycle acceleration point in the next Inflationary/UP cycle well projected from the 1982 LOW it arrives on 15/11/2026 – It makes logical sense to possible expect that the beast cycle of March 2026 drags down the market into November 2026 and then explodes upwards to finish off the cycle – just a guess though!

The 1975 Cycle obviously Inverted to a bottom rather than a top as the market was falling heavily into it. that is the only odd ball part to the 13 year cycle

The Currency War Has Expanded to New Fronts

The Currency War Has Expanded to New Fronts

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: This article was adapted, with permission, from the February issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Elliott Wave International. All data is as of Jan. 30, 2015. Click here to read the complete version of the article, including specific near-term forecasts, for free.

The “Currency War” we discussed in our October issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and again in the January issue has expanded to new fronts, as world central banks fought to remain economically competitive by trying to push down the value of their currencies.

Singapore became at least the ninth nation to “jump on the easing bandwagon” in January, employing loose monetary measures designed to reduce the value of the Singapore dollar.

Our long term bullish forecast for the U.S. dollar remains on track, and this month the Dollar Index jumped to 95.527, retracing 50% of its decline from 121.020 in July 2011 to 70.700 in March 2008.

Everyone Loves the Buck
Some chart labels have been redacted to preserve value for EWI’s paying subscribers. To get access to the fully labeled chart, click here.

Short term, the rally is stretched like a taut piece of rope: Prices have closed higher for 30 out of the past 39 weeks. Recently, a 10-day average of a poll of currency traders (courtesy trade-futures.com) showed 93.7% dollar bulls, an all-time record high. Also, Large Speculators in futures and options, who are generally trend-followers, now hold an all-time record net-long position of 72,897 contracts, as shown on the above chart.

The extreme in these measures shows the strength of the rally but also reflects a trend that is ripe for a correction.

Click here to continue reading the complete version of the article as part of a lengthy excerpt from the newest issue — including specific market forecasts, fully labeled charts and more — 100% free.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Currency War Has Expanded to New Fronts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What’s Scarier Than DE-flation?

I’ve been a personal subscriber to EWT for years and can absolutely confirm that for years they’ve been shouting and warning about DEflation rather than Inflation throughout – If things affect your personal wealth then you have a personal responsibility to yourself and your Investments to understand what is REALLY happening out there – because I can tell you, it’s NOT highlighted in the mainstream media until AFTER the event!!!!!

What’s Scarier Than DE-flation?
As early as 2011, our analysis warned that Europe’s deflation was coming — here’s why

By Elliott Wave International

For the economies of Europe, the past few months have felt like one long ice-bucket challenge that never ends: A perpetual state of shock induced by the bone-chilling fact that deflation

“…has become a reality in many European countries.” (Oct. 24, New York Times)

At last count, eight European nations are now in outright deflation, including:

  • Italy’s -0.1% annual inflation, the country’s first descent into deflation since 1959
  • Spain’s -0.3% annual inflation, the most serious deflation of any larger eurozone economy
  • France’s near 0.0% core inflation, the lowest in modern history

And no, in case you were wondering, it’s not the warm and fuzzy kind of “good deflation” being touted here in the United States, where the only consequence is lower prices. In Europe, it’s the

“…pretty awful kind.” “Titanic Europe headed for shipwreck” KIND OF awful (Nov.14, The Telegraph)

So, we ask you: What could possibly be scarier than deflation? How about — not even being able to foresee it?

Yes, deflation was a surprise to the financial authorities. Says one Oct. 12 financial blog post:

“It seems the entire world is cooling off in ways most political leaders and central bankers never saw coming. Global finance ministers are now up against a beast none have known in their professional lives.”

That’s what should keep adults like you and me up all night — the “never-saw-it-coming” part. Just how safe is our future if the people whose job it is to keep the world’s economies stable lack the tools to predict one of the most dangerous economic conditions?

This recent lack of foresight jives with what former Federal Reserve chairman Alan “The Maestro” Greenspan said in 2008:

“We can tell a bubble only after it burst.”

It also jives with what some big wig at the Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development said in 2012:

“The responsibility of the ‘latest’ financial crisis, which no one saw coming, should be borne by all of us.”

But the fact is — there was — and is — a way to see these deflationary economic sea changes coming.

This chart of the UK Consumer Price Index is a reliable bellwether for inflation in Europe. You can see that price expansion peaked in September 2011 at 5.2%:

At the time, the “D” word was completely off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices, alongside a stimulus-happy European Central Bank fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation.

One month before the top, Elliott Wave International’s August 2011 European Financial Forecast laid the opposing groundwork:

“We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks’ paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread.”

Here’s what made us take a contrarian stance (among many other reasons):

[In the August 2011 issue,] for instance, we showed a chart of eurozone manufacturing production and British GDP growth. Both were falling, not rising, indicating Europe’s likely return to economic contraction.

[This] chart is another key piece of deflationary evidence… It shows the relentless downward trajectory of Swiss, German and British 10-year bond yields, which is one of the thorniest problems for those who take the inflationist worldview.

Bond yields aren’t just falling: 10-year Swiss, German and British yields collectively dropped to record lows last month. The unrelenting demand for Europe’s safest debt is a smoking howitzer that is blowing the inflationists’ case to pieces.

The European Financial Forecast, Sept. 2011

However, the widespread call for inflation only continued to intensify in the mainstream finance. In fact, in February 2012, when the U.K. producer price inflation came in higher than expected, it prompted this word of advice from economists:

“PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes, the clinical term for those who fear deflation. We recommend that sufferers ‘seek therapy.‘” (March 12, Wall Street Journal)

Yet, our July 2012 European Financial Forecast remained committed to its counter claim:

“Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they’re again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009.”

So, it’s now 2014 and deflation in Europe is no longer a specter or a figment of an unbalanced imagination. Here’s a comment from the September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“The central bank’s latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners… The ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks’ overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.”

Now that deflation in Europe is a reality, the question is — will it get better? Is this just a temporary economic condition that will be soon replaced with another one — the condition that economists are much more familiar with, inflation?

We don’t think deflation will surrender quite so easily. Want to learn more about deflation before it could potentially affect your investments?

Today, we invite you to read a free report from Elliott Wave International titled, What You Need to Know About Protecting Yourself from Deflation. This 10-page report will help you understand how you can better prepare yourself for its devastating effects.

Just follow this link to get your free report — and start reading now!


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What’s Scarier Than DE-flation?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named

Actually this article was written and produced in September 2014 – I just didn’t publish it on this site – and NOW Deflation is panicking all the finance chiefs of Europe – Predicted years ago and continually – WELL DONE Elliot Wave International for your bold and analytically stance throughout this Deflationary Depression we’ve been in since March 2000.

Very few people called it right – from recollection a handful – well done

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named
The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a “Japan-style” deflation. Here’s our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It’s happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that’s akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: “deflation.”

And it’s not just “deflation.” You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

“Falling prices during deflation actually encourage consumers to spend.”

But once you add the following two very distinct words, there’s no way to turn that frown upside down. And those words are“Japan-style” deflation.

Japan has languished in a deflationary cycle pretty much since the late 1990s, its once booming economy reduced to ‘lost decades’ of stagnation. Europe is now teetering on the edge.” (Sept. 19, Associated Press)

Which begs an obvious question: Weren’t Europe’s central banks supposed to prevent this very scenario from happening via their unprecedented, 4-year-long campaign of “money-printing,” bond-buying and interest-rate-slashing?

The answer to that question is… yes. Those actions were indeed supposed to boost inflation.

What’s more, no one can say the European Central Bank didn’t utilize every available tool in their arsenal to try and accomplish that end. The problem is they were fighting a losing battle.

And, we are both happy and sad at the same time to report that from the very beginning, when the first rate cut was loaded into the save-the-economy cannon, we at Elliott Wave International foresaw that Europe’s retreat toward deflation was unavoidable.

Here’s a quick recap of what led us to that conclusion.

— 2011 —

January 2011: The “D” word is way off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices has fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation. Writes one January 22, 2011 LA Times article:

“Around the world, many countries aren’t confronted with the debilitating forces of deflation, but the opposite — inflation. Annualized inflation in the euro zone rose above the 2% target rate for the first time in more than 2 years.”

February 2011: The European Central Bank unveils its brand-new Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), extending nearly half a trillion euros in 3-year loans to banks at negligible interest rates — to stimulate the economy (and inflation).

July 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index declines, prompting a sigh of relief, not a shudder of fear from the Bank of England, who says “we can now breathe a little easier.”

(VS.)

Our August 2011 European Financial Forecast:

“We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks’ paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread.”

September 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index peaks at 5.2% and officially sets the downtrend in motion.

— 2012 —

January 2012: The Bank of England adds another 50 billion pounds to its asset purchase program, bringing its 3-year campaign of “money-printing” to 325 billion. The European Central Bank is less than 14 years old, yet total assets at the ECB breach 3 trillion.

February/March 2012: U.K. producer price inflation comes in higher than expected, prompting one U.K. economist to say: “PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes,” the clinical term for those who fear deflation. The economist goes on to recommend that sufferers “seek therapy.” (March 12 Wall Street Journal)

(VS.)

Our July 2012 European Financial Forecast:

“Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they’re again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009.”

August 2012 European Financial Forecast makes the first comparison of Europe to Japan:

“European leaders,” by slashing rates and printing money “seem determined to replicate Japan’s experience. Their efforts will not stop consumer price deflation.”

— 2014 —

May 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“The chart shows that British CPI accelerated lower after falling from a counter-trend peak of 5.2% back in September 2011, with year-over-year price growth just ticks above its late-2009 low.

“More than half of the 28 EU nations either teeter on the brink of deflation or have succumbed to falling prices already.

“The following chart shows that economic stagnation has reached even Germany, Europe’s most robust economy.”

September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“In a related phenomenon, the press has now jumped on the slew of similarities between Europe’s flagging economy and Japan’s… Clearly, the parallel paths of the two regions have become impossible for the press to ignore.

“The central bank’s latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners. Also like Japan, the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks’ overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.

The world has finally woken up to the possibility of a Japan-style deflation in Europe — years after the writing was already on the wall.

Now, you need to prepare for what’s to come.

The best part is, Elliott Wave International’s Founder and President, Robert Prechter, as written a book that can help you do just that. And you can read 8 chapters of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, free.


8 Chapters of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash — FREE

This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for your financial future. You’ll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson “Conquer the Crash Collection” Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

You just cannot find better Independent analysis of the markets – I’ve been an EWI subscriber for years and although I don’t fully subscribe to their Elliott Wave theory I still value their research and analysis of the markets very very highly – The Hovis Trader

What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?

The great “inflated” expectations for gold, oil, commodities — and now stocks

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s Note: You can read the text version of this story below the video.

On January 21, one of the biggest financial lawsuits in recent history came to a costly end. The accused, ratings behemoth Standard & Poor’s, agreed to a $1.4 billion settlement for “inflating credit ratings on toxic assets,” thus accelerating and exacerbating the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Settlement aside, there is a far bigger issue here than business ethics or conflicts of interests, which is not likely to get a hearing in the court of mainstream finance.

Which is: The professionals who are supposed to assess investment risks are no better at it than you or I.

Case in point: Think back to November 30, 2001. The world’s largest seller of natural gas and electricity has gone from cash cow to dry bone. Its share price had plummeted 99%, from $90 to just under $1. YET– the company continued to enjoy an “INVESTMENT GRADE” rating.

The company’s name: Enron. Four days later, it filed for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Enron seems like a distant memory, but what about the subprime mortgage debacle? Moody’s rating service slashed the ratings of 131 subprime bonds due to higher than expected defaults, in July 2007 two years after the market for non-traditional mortgages had already turned.

Spot a trend here? The “experts” failure to anticipate huge trend changes in companies, and in the overall economy. In the first edition of his business best-seller Conquer the Crash, EWI president Bob Prechter wrote:

The most widely utilized ratings services are almost always woefully late in warning of problems within financial institutions. They often seem to get news about a company around the time everyone else does… In several cases, a company can collapse before the standard ratings services know what hit it.”

So here’s the question: What are the experts not seeing now that you and I need to prepare for?

What about gold? In 2012, with prices nearly reclaiming all-time high territory, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing campaign was supposed to keep the wind at gold’s back.

“Ben Bernanke has just offered gold investors a… gilded invitation to participate in the greatest secular bull market of our time.” (April 14, 2012, Motley Fool)

Then this happened:

The same goes for the 2008 peaks in oil and commodities — two more “safe-havens” that were supposed to benefit from the Fed’s money-printing campaign, but instead prices fell to lows not seen since the 2007 financial crisis.

So, that leaves the remaining outlier — equities, which have climbed to record highs. And, according to the experts, the path of least resistance remains up. A December 14, 2014 article in the New York Times:

“We don’t see a lot on the horizon that could derail the U.S stock market in particular.”

Our January 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist urges caution with this single chart of the S&P 500’s year-end valuations since 1927. Every major peak of the last 90 years landed well outside the normal range: 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007.

We believe the precarious placement of 2014 sends a similar message: “The stock market and the economy are not in a new multi-decade recovery as economists believe, but very late in a transition phase from boom to bust.”


Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What’s Bigger Than a $1.4 Billion Mortgage Ratings Scandal?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Heard about DEflation?

Heres further detail of the Deflation time bomb over hanging us at this time

Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts

There’s more to deflation than falling prices

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find the text version of the story below the video.

Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.

Yet in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter’s headline says, “Deflation is Starting to Win.”

Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:

… the number of countries experiencing ‘lowflation’ has been steadily rising from 2011 (blue line). The eurozone tipped into outright deflation in December, with Germany, Britain and the US also seeing prices rise at near record lows.

The Telegraph, January 14

But as Prechter explains, falling prices are an effect of deflation.

Deflation is not a period of generally falling prices; it is a period of contraction in the total amount of money plus credit. Falling prices in an environment of stable money is indeed a good thing. In fact, in a real-money system, it is the norm, because technology makes things cheaper to produce. But when debt expands faster than production, it becomes overblown, then wiped out, and prices rise and fall in response.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2015

So a major debt buildup is a precondition of deflation. Do we see this today? The third edition of Conquer the Crash shows the answer.

Total dollar-denominated debt has skyrocketed since 1990. The upward trend turned slightly down during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but has since crept higher.

How fast and how far can this nearly $60 trillion in debt dwindle?

It’s instructive to review the collapse of the 1920s credit bubble.

On the left side of the chart, note how debt deflation needed nearly a decade to unwind.

Today’s mountain of debt is far higher than in 1929, yet our indicators suggest that the next debt deflation could unfold much more rapidly.

The third edition of Conquer the Crash provides 157 forecasts. Here are three:

  • Real estate values will begin to fall again, ultimately more than they did in the 1930s.
  • Hedge funds, mutual funds, money-market funds, managed accounts and brokerage accounts will go out of favor — many will go out of existence.
  • Financial corporations previously bailed out by the Fed and the U.S. government will fail again, as will new ones.

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head report

Free online report from Elliott Wave International:
Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head in Subtle and Not-So-Subtle Ways Around the Globe.

You still have a small window of time to prepare for a scenario most investors don’t even know is possible — and now even more likely.

Get your free report now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

You were Warned well inadvance

I posted this in February 2014, I’d read it again and then look at what’s been happening since September:

https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/now-is-the-time-to-beware/

DEflation anyone?

If you are serious about understanding the monetary system PROPERLY or gaining a handle on how it affects your Investments – you need to understand the current Inflationary monetary system.

A very severe by-product of Inflation is Deflation, at some point in time Deflation will rear its ugly head.

The current system despises Deflation, because it puts into reverse the system manipulators ploys – the current ploy is to make money continually by/from Inflation.

You would be very wise to check out http://www.deflation.com

by doing so you’ll join a few rare % of the globe that understand the current con and the possible side-effects those in power fail to explain to you!

The choice is yours, its your money not mine (I’ve learnt more than enough to safeguard myself)

and if anyone is unsure, since 2000 we have been inside a Deflationary Depression – the stock markets and credit markets actions confirm and prove this – I’ve also discovered that the use of Time Cycles can predict these events pretty accurately and their sub-divisions

ESSENTIAL/MUST read

It’s not often that I do this – it’s a Saturday afternoon and I’ve interrupted my day to post this.

You have to read the March 2014 issue of Elliott Wave Theorist – it does mean BUYING it, you don’t obtain this type of information for free I’m afraid.  You will need to subscribe to the Elliott Wave Theorist to obtain March 2014 issue

You are highly unlikely EVER to read the content of the report in the mainstream media and it also helps to confirm/back-up what I’ve been saying about the Fed and USA Government.  If you’re an American then the implications are massive not only for your Investments but your lives, If you’re not an American citizen then it’s bound to have an impact on your Investments/Life to some degree – better to be prepared, than “suddenly out of the blue” find out

In fact this report/months EWT applies to EVERYBODY in the world, it is that important, all I can do is alert you (you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t force it to drink) you’ve been alerted!

Here’s a link:

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=statgrphc&url=/wave/022114aff&tcn=ag022114&acn=hvt1211