Look back to 2017 and forward to 2018

2017 was a cracker of a year (No charts in this post)

The time Cycle that was expected in December 2016, came in bang on time for the FTSE100 Index and 1 month prior for the Nasdaq100 – this is absolutely exceptional for a big Time-Cycle.

Had you taken a 5 times leveraged FTSE100 ETF Tracker you’d of made 70-80% from Dec’16 to Jun’17

Had you Invested in the Santa Rally of 2017 you’d of made another 15% too

I’m not advocating using leveraged funds – but if you have a very high probability expectation of market direction due to conforming indicators then it’s a good use of strategy.

Just using a simple ETF tracker – you’d of beaten the market by trading not buying and holding!

The markets high now so there should be some sort of pullback in the next few weeks – to what degree/severity I don’t know – that’s one of the beauties of trading, I’m currently 100% in cash and safety so I’ll wait for the correction/pullback or sideways move and then get back in when the Weekly DTosc tells me it’s safe to do so.

So what’s in store for 2018???

I do not have a clue – I do know that I’ll be trading a few of the swing lows from the markets that I monitor (Natural Gas just triggered a trade on 29th December 2017 – so I expect to be taken into that 1st thing on the 1st trading day in the New Year)

The 8th year is said to be positive/bullish – If you look back 10 years and 20 years, you will note that 2008 was not bullish and 1998 was – the COMMON factor between them both and 1988 if you look back 30 years – IS big swings up and down in the markets

From the markets rapid advance since 2009 – I’d expect 1-2 fairly decent pullbacks throughout the year – but I’d be surprised if the Dec 2016 (Nov’16 USA markets) LOW was reached and breached

Best of luck for 2018 – Thank you for following my blog and posts, I look forward to posting a bit more in 2018 for you on Ideas, methods and the like

 

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Santa Rally?

We’re into the season where we need to be considering and thinking about the Santa Rally and all those stats that go with it.

You can probably find out a bit about it now online, but a stock market almanac will help you best.

I wonder when this big crash people have talked about for an age will come? (It’s not coming by the way)

Next on the agenda though is Bitcoin – I’ve stayed clear as it’s not a valid investment for me and it has all the hallmarks of a bubble – put that pin away……

4 Year – Next repeat?

This cycle nearly always arrives in OCTOBER.

The next hit is October 2018

I did mention this when it last hit in October 2014 – some 4 years aggggooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

With the exception of 1994 & 2002 – just look at how this cycle has arrived and the markets bounced many %

4yr cycle

the 2 years in question – 1994 & 2002 – were not void they just took a few more months to get going – they still eventually worked.

Lets PRETEND that 1994 and 2002 failed – so out of 9 trade potentials since 1982, 2 failed = 78% win rate – which is pretty damn good (In fact when you take this cycle back centuries the win rate is 90+%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Make a note of it in your diaries – look back in 2019 to what happened in 2018 and specifically around October time.

Latest Trade

Hi All,

Firstly can I just thank you all for subscribing to my blog.

I know I don’t post that often anymore – I don’t see the point in posting just for the sake of it, so when I post it’s because there’s relevance to the post.

I thought I’d show you a current live trade I have in place

This is actually my THT Springboard trade set-up/method (not available to purchase yet)

This is a UK Stock United Utilities – I bought in around the Green line, the trade is now neutral so barring a gap down the position will break-even

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The message really is you can and it is perfectly feasible to buy the lows/bottoms successfully and profitably.

It’s Impossible to know just how high this will track, It could right now just reverse and I’d be left with a break-even trade, although typically I’d look to exit this position by at least 4 times the amount risked circa 8% of the value of my account at trade inception.

You then REPEAT the method on the next market that set-ups like this so that over the course of the year you might take 10 trades, have 6 winners @ 8%+ and 4 losers @ 2% each – leaving quite a decent % return for the year.

Well WHAT Happened?

For YEARS I had shouted about the relevance of 6/7th December 2016,

I really don’t need to speak anymore of it as the chart below tells you all that you need to know

By the way the chart is of an ETF that tracks the UK’s FTSE100 Index at a 5 X Leveraged rate (yes I do use this trading vehicle):

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80% in a few months ain’t that bad

What made the trade feasible?

  1. A Low was expected for the Time Cycle due on the 6/7th Dec 2016
  2. This Time Cycle had been forecast YEARS in advance and the outlook was ALWAYS to expect it to be a LOW
  3. Other confirming Indicators I look at were also signalling a low

The position was a high probability trade based on numerous confirming factors

Timing – Slightly Advanced

Good Morning,

NOTHING works 100% in the markets – you need a system/method that works and just exploit it, as you’re ALWAYS going to have losing positions/trades.

Here’s a simple timing method I look at, at times (I don’t always use it!)

First let me give you some quick background points as to WHY I refer to it:

  1. Gann was always referring to squaring this and that
  2. Gann’s Square of 9 is basically a glorified Square Root system, built on a 2-Dimensional Square, which when converted to 3-Dimensions becomes a Pyramid structure
  3. If you draw a 360 CIRCLE around the 4 base corners of this structure you then can add in the DEGREES that Gann talks of.
  4. Using these DEGREES you can then locate the 45, 90, 120, 180 degrees of price etc etc

Related image

OKAY, back to the post –

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In the chart ABOVE this is EXACTLY what I did:

  1. Found a high and a low – measured the Time and Price FACTS of this move
  2. Took the high Price (BLUE Lines) and square rooted that PRICE to see if TIME sync with this
  3. Took the low Price (GREEN Liines) and did the same
  4. Took the RANGE (RED Lines) and did the same
  5. Took the Time of the H-L and did the same
  6. Projected them from the High, Low – up to YOU

Now Increase the chart size to LOOK and see how they fitted.

They’re not going to be perfect fits because that’s just too easy – as you can see above sometimes it hits perfectly, sometimes it gets close and other times it just misses – you can’t get in did on 100% it’s impossible

Homework

  • Apply Pythagorean theory – to the range of the High to the Low
  • You’ll need to convert days to hours (8 hours session on the UK market)
  • So the Price range was 1529 * 1529 then ADD
  • the Time bars, that was 148*8 = 1184 * 1184
  • Now square root the result = side of the C value of the Pythagorean Triangle you’ve just created using both Time and Price (1933.82)
  • Now Square Root that value (43.97)
  • Apply 44 Trading days from the low of 2125
  • How close did it come?

Again it’s not perfect but can you see how we’ve applied mathematics to the markets and we’ve now got close to turning points – you can do the SAME for PRICE levels too

Try doing the same to PRICE and SEE just how many times price stopped on a multiple of the square root number of 44 from the low

UPDATE – Here’s the chart for visual

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Advanced Warning – July 2017

Sorry I haven’t had time to do this very well in advance and there’s no charts – just text – It’s been eating away at me for months that I haven’t posted this early, but here’s a quick message:

There are a HOST of cycles hitting in July that you should be aware of – Gann said “Look BACK 60 hours, days, weeks, months, years, degrees to the last Top/Bottom – as well as other varying periods (30,45,90, 120 etc etc etc)

Gann wrote a book called with 45 years on Wall Street in it’s title and “Looking back”

  1. Well If you look back the 45 yr cycle from July 2017 you get 1973 – look what the market did in 1973
  2. Sub-divisions of the cycles land on KEY market turning points Рsuch as 1914, 1973, 1987, 2002, 1899 and 1929!  Yes I did say 1899
  3. There are MORE KEY cycles that are harmonically coinciding in the month of July

It should be a time to be on guard as what is aligning does not happen often and looking back to the past when it DID – it caused many turbulent times in the market.

All the best – If I get chance later in the year I’ll review and display all the cycles on a chart from the 1960’s so that you can see

UPDATE: 24th July 2017

So far so good, bit of disruption on the USA/UK markets – but so far nothing major or significant – a pullback/correction is due this week, have to see the significance of that move

Look Similar?

If you’ve followed my blog over the last few years – you KNOW that the Time Cycle we were all waiting for to arrive in Dec 2016 – actually came 1 month early in November 2016, you can’t be absolute exact of times I’m afraid.

Anyway – You also KNOW that the Time Cycle we were waiting for was an EXACT replica of the 1949 TC (I don’t have data for that period, so can’t show a chart) – what I do have is data for 1982 – the Low of 1982 was ALSO a direct descendant of the current TC.

the chart below shows the Market AFTER the TC arrived at the LOWS

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S&P500 1982 LOW

NOW – LOOK at the chart below – the INITIAL reaction from the Nov 2016 LOW as been VERY VERY similar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Nasdaq100 Nov 2016 LOW

Now Don’t EXPECT the market to move exactly as per 1982 – It won’t, the energy is different, but the overall shape when viewed back from years in the future WILL be fairly similar

In 1982 the market moved 70% in 45 Weeks – You can see that that move was more VERTICAL than the current move

It will be Interesting to see not only what the market moves by in 45 weeks from the low of Nov 2016 but what Price and % figure

Something for your homework bags.

PS – the one thing that I DID say for years before the event was that the Dec 2016 TC should be a LOW ideally and it was

2017 Market Outlook – Gann Style

Gann used to market his annual predictions for a lot of money – essentially all he was doing was looking back 10 and 20 years and projecting market movements for the forecast based on what the market actually did 120 and 240 mths prior.

I was going to do this last year but didn’t have time, so here it is now – half way through the year.

This is a very simple method and real easy to do – I’m not saying it works – What we’ll do is come back to this blog in Jan 2018 and update the “Current” chart to show what the market did and if there’s some correlation

Notice the big plunges that both the 1997 and 2007 market had in the latter stages of the year – also notice the 1997 plunge and subsequent market action up into 1998, Now get a chart of 1987 and see the formation the market made from plunge to end of 1987!

Gann’s market predictions were a little more detailed and specific than this, but not too much

Here’s the CURRENT market action of the FTSE100 Index:

FTSE100 - 2017 - 6 mths

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 2007 (SIDEWAYS):

FTSE100 - 2007

Now here’s the FTSE100 Index from 1997 (UP:

FTSE100 - 1997

 

Update to “Don’t do this too often” post

As EXPECTED

Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!

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