Weekly Time & Price – W/C 28th April 2014

No reviews this week, just a peek at the GOLD market

Swing File Analysis:

Weekly Gold Price & Time

Daily Gold - Time & Price

These charts were produced using data up to and including Thursday 24th April – I usually do the analysis using full weeks worth of data, I can’t do that this week, hence the partial weeks data use.

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Weekly Time & Price – W/C 14th April 2014

This week we are focusing on the S&P500 once again, but first we need to have a quick review of the EURUSD from last week.

EURUSD (Weekly Time & Price – W/C 7th April 2014):

We were looking for a LOW on the daily chart – in it came right on cue, I’m long the EURUSD, I caught the absolute bottom bar (at time of writing) and the trade is now NEUTRAL, from a risk perspective, well in fact I’m 100+ pips in profit by way of a stop in the market and I’ve also taken a portion of the position off so I know this trade will will produce a minimum of 1R return regardless.

I have no idea if I’m right on this low call or not – Price is in the current expected Price and Time zones as last weeks analysis showed, the WEEKLY chart should ideally punch HIGHER to complete its Price and Time zones, but that’s not necessary – we’ll just have to wait and see what actually happens.  the point is I took a speculative position on the EURUSD follow a signal to go long on one of my trading set-ups, It’s bounced enough to be a profitable trade of which I’ve secured part of those profits, I’d love it to head higher, it might, it might not – that’s the part of the trade that I have absolutely no control over, all I can do is manage the trade to try to eek the most out of it.

When I next review the EURUSD in 2 weeks time we might be hunting for a short-term top, but we’ll see the position for that then.

Right let’s take a look at the S&P500, because it has been having a nice move:

Swing File Analysis:

Weekly S&P500 Time & Price

First we need to remind ourselves that we were looking for a HIGH in the S&P500 from the last Weekly Time and Price analysis – Price is now in both the Price and Time zones to complete a WEEKLY HIGH.

Daily S&P500 Time & Price

The DAILY chart is now looking for a LOW, the decline is in the typical PRICE & TIME zone for a low to occur too, but we can also see the other dates too.

Fibonacci Analysis:

Weekly S&P500 Time & Price FIB

Daily S&P500 Time & Price FIB

 

Weekly Time & Price analysis – W/C 7th April 2014

Hi All,

This week we come back to the mighty S&P500, I’ll provide a update to what to look for going forward in this post too.  But first let’s look at last weeks Call for the EURUSD.

We were looking for a LOW, in fact the time zone runs to the 18th April 2014 for a LOW point – so we are still within that zone in both Time and Price.

Right the S&P500, lets review the Price and Time zones and then look at the market itself from a technical point of view

Swing File Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price

Projecting the END of the UPSWING on the WEEKLY EURUSD – in the zone now

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price

DAILY Analysis = looking for the LOW of this swing DOWN, again in the ZONE!

Fibonacci Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

DAILY Analysis = Fib counts/analysis says Tuesday 22nd April has the highest number of hits – wait and see.

What to look for going forward – update:

S&P500

WTLFGF1

Look at the chart above, to be honest the critical information is shown on the chart, my words here are just to explain the detail in plain English so that my thoughts are clear.

The PINK horizontal line = a current SUPPORT shelf, If and how long it hold I have no idea (neither does anybody else)

ALL the moving averages are in Bullish mode, pointing up and separated nicely = UPTREND

The PINK moving average gives the impression that price found support at that level – it did, but the support occurred at the PRICE level NOT the moving average – think, on the days of support the moving average was one bar back, PRICE drags the moving averages along, the moving averages do NOT drag price – this is a classic ILLUSION to which people will say “Look, price found support at the MA level” It’s not true, it just happens that the MA met with price at those levels – why did the MA FAIL to support price in June 2013, August 2013, October 2013, Dec 2013?  BECAUSE price found support and the MA was not priced near enough to create the Illusion AND even if it were true that moving averages provide support NO-ONE can tell you in advance WHY or WHEN it will next happen, so there value is pretty limited in my book – BUT they [Moving Averages] are good at helping you see and identify the trend direction, although you could just get a line draw it on the chart and determine if it;s heading sideways, down or up and that would be just as good.

In Fact I will do a series on Trend Identification in the coming weeks

The Thick BLACK horizontal line is CRITICAL SUPPORT – If that level is broken – POTENTIALLY – the trend could have changed from UP to DOWN, BUT, that is not for certain – IF that happens it will be the biggest correction for a number of months – W.D. Gann said that when the size and time of a correction exceeds those of the past corrections in the trend watch out for a trend reversal – that’s exactly what we will do – KEEP WATCH.

You can see from careful study of the DAILY chart that Gann’s quote so far has FAILED – so far the largest corrections in Time and Price have FAILED to be reversal points!  Another “Market FACT” that in fact is a MYTH!  At some point Gann’s quote will come true, but I wonder after how many FAILURE POINTS!  (I reckon about 80% of what you learn about the markets is a load of crap – Elliott Wave and Gann included) But I also say that PARTS of Gann and Elliott Wave are genius and workable.

We now need to look at this S&P500 market in a different context – a higher time-frame chart to see the bigger picture – detail on the chart should be self-explanatory

WTLFGF2

Once those KEY support levels start to be taken out all you can do is watch to see where the market will find support – no-one knows where it will find support, people will try to guess such as 61.8% fib level of X-X, or 50% (not even a FIB level!) of X-X – but they never tell you EXACTLY which levels will provide the resistance or which high and low to work off, that’s because they DON’T KNOW, it;s all ifs and buts in the markets – at least I’m honest about it!

For me the crucial support levels are the ones I’m watching anything up to them is just market noise and a standard potential correction in progress.

Just remember that NO-ONE, me included knows exactly where and when this market will top or bottom out – If you throw enough guesses at the thing eventually you’ll get it right! BEWARE of predictions.

Oh and another point, people keep bleating on about QE1 turning the market in 2009 – QE1 was an accounting trick – no real money entered the markets! So how that managed to pump the market higher I’ll never know, if markets can rise on fresh air all we need is a giant fan aimed at the markets with a hint of QE rumour and they should propel ever more higher.

What to Look for going forward the next part will be posted in a month or so time – until that uptrend changes to do guess what the trend direction is?  Up that’s right

Hope it helps.

 

Weekly Time & Price – W/C/ 31st March 2014

Quick review of last weeks GOLD analysis:

Last weeks post we were looking for LOW in Gold on the DAILY chart and a tempory HIGH on the WEEKLY chart – I’m gearing up for a LONG position as we speak, this means the short-term LOW should be about to complete or about to complete soon

Now we’ll take a look at the EURUSD forex pair:

Swing File Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price

WEEKLY Swing file is looking for a LOW – Time and Price zones on the chart

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price

DAILY chart is also looking for a LOW – Time and Price zones on the chart

Fibonacci Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

WEEKLY Fibonacci TIME analysis

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

DAILY Fibonacci TIME analysis detailed on chart above

In the order of disclosure I have to state that I DO have a LONG EURUSD order in the market close to current levels – It’s not triggered, but if it does I’m looking at the long side of the market – The timescale I’m trading will be short-term NOT long-term positions.

Weekly Time & Price – W/C 24th March 2014

This weeks Time and Price focuses on GOLD, it’s been a few weeks since we looked at this market, so let’s do just that.

Before we get stuck into GOLD, a quick review of our S&P500 call of the past week =

Refer back to past posts, but you should remember that I said on the WEEKLY chart to expect HIGHER prices OR potential that a HIGH/TOP is not yet formed with a date of March-August 2014 as the expected period of time for a high on the WEEKLY chart.

The DAILY chart is different, we were looking for a LOW – I think that LOW is either IN or very very close to being in, followed by HIGHER prices, dragging us into the WEEKLY chart expectations.  As I type so far so good with this assumption, remember the Fibonacci Time zone was for the 26th March 2014 I think for the date of the LOW, so if time is bowing to Fibonacci we’ll have a run down into a LOW around that date, if time is NOT bowing to Fibonacci ratios then the date is irrelevant and I’ve discussed the swing file zones in last weeks post.  There is still the chance of lower lows on the daily chart – it is not certain that the low is in – although there’s a high probability that it [the LOW] is in.

Right let’s now focus on the shiny yellow stuff that the Federal Reserve are obsessed with……..

Gold:

Swing File Analysis:

Weekly Gold Price & Time

WEEKLY we’re projecting for a HIGH = In the Zone right now for BOTH price and time!

Daily Gold - Time & Price

DAILY – we’re looking for a LOW = Just in the PRICE zone but we’re in the ideal TIME zone

Fibonacci Analysis:

Weekly Gold Price & Time FIB

WEEKLY Fib Timing = already hit, will it stop the market?  It’s def had a short-term impact, whether it lasts we’ll have to wait and see.

Daily Gold - Time & Price FIB

DAILY = too early to tell as yet – it’s all about the upswing that [IF] it occurs – that will tell you the larger potential plan for Gold, it’s just way too early to tell at this stage.

Weekly Time & Price – W/C 17th March 2014

First a review of last week – Price and Time zones acted as expected!  I don’t post this crap for nothing you know.

Right just a look at the S&P500 this week (from now on I’ll rotate through S&P500/Gold & EURUSD so we have 3 weeks in between):

Right the SHORT-TERM high is in, we are now looking to see when the next short-term LOW should be due, you now have to remember the WEEKLY picture.  From a WEEKLY perspective we are STILL looking for a HIGH – this may or may not be in with last weeks price falls – at this point you cannot say that a WEEKLY HIGH is in for sure – remember the date of 4th April and my 29th March date – all that could be happening in the S&P500 is a minor short-term pullback and then bang upwards again into those key dates!

So what I am saying is we COULD see the DAILY chart form a LOW followed by a HIGH left for the S&P500 Index, seen as we have been in a BULL market that is our natural assumption, however, we also need to be aware that this could be the start of a major correction or a bear market – at this stage we just do not know for sure.

Swing Analysis –

Daily S&P500 Time & Price

Right the Swing File analysis shows us the typical PRICE and TIME zones for a corrective LOW, max date for a LOW is 24th March 2014, with the ideal zone being 9th March – 19th March 2014 = NOW!

Price is also in the ideal zone but you can see the extent of it’s potential.

Fibonacci Analysis –

Daily S&P500 Time & Price FIBThe typical Fibonacci TIME hit is 26th March 2014 for a LOW

I will be posting a new update to what to look for going forward posts as well some time this week – so that you can work out what to look for in price action in the coming weeks.

Weekly Time & Price – S&P500, Gold & EURUSD & Guest FTSE100 markets

Here’s this weeks Time and Price zones for:

S&P500:

Swing Analysis

Weekly S&P500 Time & PriceIn the Zone as we speak – could go higher as BOTH TIME and PRICE have the ability to extend further

Daily S&P500 Time & PriceA short-term daily HIGH should be on the cards

Fibonacci Time Analysis

Weekly S&P500 Time & Price FIBThis date also fits in well with my independent TIME CYCLE for 29th March 2014!  Might come to something, might not

Daily S&P500 Time & Price FIB

GOLD:

Swing Analysis

Weekly Gold Price & TimeAgain like the S&P500 both TIME & PRICE are in the zone

Daily Gold - Time & PriceI would expect a short-term high any day

Fibonacci Time Analysis

Weekly Gold Price & Time FIBNot clear on Fibonacci TIME – although in the zone for hit #1

Daily Gold - Time & Price FIBFibonacci not clear at all on the daily chart – too random for my liking

EURUSD:

Swing Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & PriceAgain in the zone, although could rally higher still to meet the perfect PRICE zone

Daily EURUSD - Time & PriceA short-term high should be expected

Fibonacci Time Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price FIBWatch the dates to see what happens – everything is in place on numerous PRICE & TIME levels

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price FIBNot clear on the daily

FTSE100:

Swing Analysis

Weekly FTSE100 Time & PriceMy preference is for more highs from the FTSE100 on the weekly chart – although the MINIMUM levels have been met for a potential high

Daily FTSE100 Time & PriceAgain Daily chart shows PRICE & TIME in the zone

Fibonacci Analysis

Weekly FTSE100 Time & Price FIBIn the zone for Fibonacci Time

Daily FTSE100 Time & Price FIBWatch Wednesday 12th March – could turn the market

This analysis is generic, it is not designed to be precise – people seen to love Fibonacci, there’s nothing special about it, it’s just a new way to look at the markets, sometimes it works other times it fails – just like most other things in the markets.

My preference is the Swing File analysis, it;s real-life data and logical common sense projections.

Weekly TIME & PRICE – S&P500, Gold & EURUSD

I’ve had a bit more time this week, it’s only a couple of clicks of the mouse button to sort out the charts but putting it together in the blog takes the time.

Let’s take a look at the S&P500 first:

Weekly S&P500 Time & Price

In the Weekly chart above we can see Time and Price target zones

Daily S&P500 Time & Price

As we can see from the Daily chart above, Time and Price is already in the key zones – We’ll have to wait and see what it does from here.

GOLD:

Weekly Gold Price & Time

Again Gold is in the ideal Time and Price zones on the Weekly chart

Daily Gold - Time & Price

Again it’s getting a bit toppy on the daily chart.

EURUSD:

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price

The WEEKLY chart shows that we are there for TIME, but the price element has only just been entered – there could be a decent move in future weeks towards the ideal PRICE zone – keep watch

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price

We’re at the ideal Time and Price on a DAILY chart – thinking about the weekly chart, it would be ok for the daily price to retrace a little and then continue upwards to reach the ideal WEEKLY zones – it does not have to though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold – Weekly Time & Price analysis

The S&P500 is still working out as per last weeks post, here’s Gold for this weeks analysis – nice and simple – it too is in the zones for both price and time.

Weekly Gold Price & Time

I’ve only included the time analysis for the WEEKLY chart – As you can see from a WEEKLY perspective it is in the zone, but it still could rally much further higher in both time and price – this particular upswing could last all the way until 30th May 2014! If the Gold market is respecting previous swings.

Daily Gold - Time & Price

As for Gold on a DAILY chart – we might see the uptrend continue into early March, then expect some sort of pullback or an end to this uptrend and resuming of the downtrend.

What is key in this market now is how the next Weekly cycle low prints on the chart, if we get a higher low then expect higher prices of some description.

 

S&P500 – Time and Price Analaysis W/c 10th Feb 2014

Just the S&P500 this week – struggling for time already! so no Gold or EURUSD analysis

I’ve kept the weekly chart bearish, until the swing file line turns up I can’t project from a low:

W/c 10th Feb 2014

W/c 10th Feb 2014

Price is inside the Weekly Time and Price zones

The Daily charts have turned UP, so if you’re still bearish refer back to last weeks charts the zones are the same, however, these are the zones from the recent lows@

W/c 10th Feb 2014

W/c 10th Feb 2014

Enjoy and prosperous trading