Update to “Don’t do this too often” post

As EXPECTED

Keep it simple, simple use of Indicators, market pattern is ALL you really need.

Please note – I have ONLY put a suggested Elliott Wave numbers on the chart for illustrative purposes only – I NEVER label my charts with EW numbers/counts – I’ve shown them on here so that you can see the labelling of the swings.

The position of the DToscs at #2orB gave things away!

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S*** Happens

I also think it’s very important to show you examples of when things don’t work out quite how I wanted them to.

Most of the detail is on the chart below.

ALL my trading rules were in place for this trade on the 15th March 2017 – I nearly skipped the trade but decided to alter my stop position to make it worthwhile (usually my stop would be under the LOW of Monday 13th March, but I deemed the range of risk too much) Hence why I moved it up to the low of the 14th March.

Anyway – I was sat at my computer 8am awaiting the open – my trading account forces me to set an entry level and then a min of 1% range above that entry level – This sucker GAPPED open over that buy order level and the 1% range and it did not retrace to it that day = the trade was voided and cancelled without hesitation – I’ve missed out on profits and wasted part of a day tracking this one – for zilch!

The trade worked but without me on board – This stuff happens you just have to live with it.  Also you will have trades that take you in and then stop you straight back out again too! Part and parcel to trading baby.

The So-Called Experts will tell you risk is the most important factor – it is very important – but you can see I didn’t even enter this trade through absolutely no fault of my own, the Entry is JUST as Important as the stop and therefore RISK.

This is my THT Trampoline trading set-up – yet to be made available as I’m still writing the course!

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Now this one will make you smile but it makes my stomach churn just thinking about it – this happened very very recently and I’m still fuming about it:

  1. I’m transferring my pension fund  – complicated story but to be able to continue to trade it I had to transfer it – that process has taken months!  So I thought I’d be safe taking a trade seen as it had taken ages to process! How wrong was I!
  2. The chart below shows that I entered a position on this stock on the Green line (price and date) my stop was the red line less a couple of pennies
  3. The market went up then back down – on the 27th March 2017 my Pension company decided it would be OK to dis-invest this position from my fund as they were now ready to transfer it to my new pension provider! Why they didn’t transfer it in-species with the position still intact I will never know – fucking idiots! Yes I am complaining so we’ll see what happens
  4. You can see what the share thereafter did – without me on board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  5. It’s actually made about 6R – If risking 2% of account that is a return of 12% – you don’t need too many of them to make a decent return for the year!
  6. I cannot tell you that after years of doing this, just how mad, sick and upset looking at that chart knowing I was on board but someone else took me out of the trade – this one will stick with me for years!  It won’t affect my next trade but I’ll remember it!
  7. you see crap happens to us ALL – Professionals, Newbies and established Investors

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Update – TED stock

I think it’s really important to show you FAILED trades too.

If you remember based on the DTosc positions a rally was signalled – this happened but it was tiny.

This is why it’s not SAFE to just trade off basic things such as Indicators – they don’t always work out – now what you’ll have to do if this chart is of interest to you is to follow it on as it progresses.

The WEEKLY DTosc is in the bear OS zone and price will rally to some degree, which will be confirmed by the bullish reversals of the Daily DTosc – the real KEY in all of this is to not only have the Multiple Time Frame Indicator positions in unison but ALSO Pattern, price and time all in a healthy zone for reversal.

As mentioned in the previous blog post on TED – the weekly chart indicates an Elliott Wave pattern, whether that turns out to be correct we are months away from – but the pattern is BEARISH, HOWEVER,

Depending upon how you “see and look” at the Weekly chart you could also label that bullish too (not from an EWP point of view) – one thing is for absolute certain – one side will win – EVENTUALLY.

The point I’m trying to make here is DON’T get hooked on a particular outlook – once you do that you will be dragged down the path into a dangerous breeding ground of having to have the correct and right outlook on what the market will do – you do NOT have the power to do that!

As can be seen – My outlook based on the Indicator was WRONG – you’ll probably find that it’s now in the position I had hoped it was in previous for a decent rally, but its not guaranteed.

I wrote this post on Tuesday 4th April 2017 – but have scheduled it for publication Sunday 9th April 2017.

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Don’t do this too much

My style of blog is one that makes you think, do a bit of work for yourself – I don’t often give specifics out as people won’t and don’t appreciated them and others will likely just copy if you give too much critical info out for free.

Here’s a chart of the S&P500 from the weekend – I updated it on Monday.

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The S&P500 is in a classic position – at present the odds are well and truly to the UPSIDE, but obviously not guaranteed.

Just for reference the WEEKLY DTosc should bearish OS at the end of this week which coupled with the Daily DTosc Bullish reversal that will be due soon – is the PERFECT position for the bullish outlook.

Obviously that outlook completely changes if the market fails to comply with that level of thinking and the low of C is taken out

Can you SEE just how EASY it is to trade from 2 Indicators! along with a very basic pattern seen often in the markets for

  1. I can predict the preferred likely outcome in advance – not guaranteed but most likely
  2. I then have targets to see if the trade makes financial sense taking
  3. I KNOW point C could be a deal breaker
  4. All in advance

Why (and How) I use Swing files

It’s ALL dead simple AND most Importantly COMMON SENSE – keep your trading as simple as possible!

  1. They give me a visual picture on the swings (as I determine them) of the marketplace
  2. They give me in an instant the direction of the smaller swing file AND the larger swing file  – this allows me to instantly work out whether a market is MIXED, BULLISH or BEARISH Instantly
  3. It allows me to SEE virtually Instantly whether a market is setting up one of my trading set-ups/methods
  4. It allows me to calculate Time and Price expectations based on PRIOR swings
  5. It allows me to SEE with a few clicks of the mouse the ENTIRE STATISTICS of the market I’m looking at
  6. I can match up TIMES of High to High, Low to Low, Low to High and High to Low to see quickly if there’s a tight range of TIME
  7. I can quickly and easily SEE Gann’s market formations (If any are forming!)
  8. I can quickly and easily see if there’s a pattern of rising lows or lower highs
  9. I trade lows and bottoms – It allows me to identify these quickly with the aid of an Indicator too

Lets see the Swing Files in action – Remember to get the info on the charts took me less than  30 seconds:

Instantly tell if a market is in a trading range or bullish/bearish

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It also Instantly shows you a “visual” gauge of the ACTUAL swings the market has made over X days/weeks/months/years

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I can calculate TIME from the swings in a number of ways:

Shown are the Dynamic Time Projection AND The TIME Rhythm Zone – both calculated in about 5 seconds from the swings shown on the chart – If the markets following similar time calcs as it did on prior swings then this info is invaluable.

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I can also do similar for PRICE

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I can look at the stats of the swings and work out the following:

Is there a particular day of the week the stock/market moves significantly up or down?

I can also see month stats too (no chart shown)

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I can also in seconds work out the % swings of the market for min / Average & Max swings

As you can see this markets average typical BULLISH swing was 5.4% and the DECLINES during a bullish UP phase maxed out at 6.3%

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However, during the BEARISH down phases the up phases averaged 2.8% whilst the down phases were 5.1%

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The Bright BLUE line = the MAIN UP or DOWN Trend as determined by the setting of the swing file – in this case it’s an automatic setting – but you could set it as say a 10% swing file – this means EVERY time the market moves up or down by 10% the line will follow

the Green UP and red DOWN lines are a short-term swing file again in this case automatic but it could be say a 4% swing file – which obviously would change every 4% move of the market.

The bright Blue governs the stats as to whether the market is considered bullish or bearish – so for example if the bright blue swing file line is pointing UP/BULLISH then  every GREEN UP/Bullish short-term swing file confirmation could be bought.

Obviously though – If you have a 4% swing file on and you buy then you’ve missed 4% of the move and if as in the instances of the charts above the average for that market is 5.4% then there’s not much left to profit from!

Here’s something you could consider – Shift the short-term swing file to the become the Intermediate swing file and create a bigger Intermediate swing file.

This then “removes” the short-term noise from the picture and gives more bang for your buck – Obviously it would help if you had some form of pattern recognition to identify trades

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So you can see and PROVE it – to yourself what the typical swings of the market have been in the past and roughly what they should be in the future – If you’re in a Bullish up phase on the higher % swing file and the markets pulled back in a decline on the smaller swing file and various other indications are suggesting a low is forming then the opportunity to establish long positions upon confirmation can be seriously considered and you could even calculate the potential up swing min/average/max including TIME when it might potentially end – ALL INADVANCE!!!!!!!!!!

This could also be used in conjunction with other timing methods you may use and pattern recognition such as Elliott Wave, Gann or whatever you prefer to use.

You could also add automatic dates and info to the swing highs/lows or both to see if there’s a typical cycle of TD’s or CD’s from low to low etc -which could be used to narrow timing down etc.

The bottom line is you have all the facts of what the market has previously DONE – those facts don’t not predict the future, but they do give you a pretty good indication of what “MIGHT” happen

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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks, ETF’s, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Ted Baker?

EVERY night I scour the FTSE350 Index for possible trades, once found I shove them into a prospect list on my charting software to review.

Sometimes the prospects are ripe and ready to place orders for the next mornings open – other such as this are what I calling “getting into position” this means their not quite fully formed as a trade but getting close.

There’s no guarantee these comply and often you just have to ditch the chart as the market failed to form as required – REMEMBER WE ONLY TAKE TRADES THAT ARE ULTRA HIGH PROBABILITIES.

Details on chart – I will update the chart going forward in later posts so that you can follow it’s progress or failure whichever it may happen to be.

The outlook is BULLISH purely down to the WEEKLY DTosc position as it is – that does not mean we trade now!

PS – This is purely for educational value, I have absolutely NO intention of trading this market – I just want to show you that if you find a pattern that repeats often in the markets then you can trade them should you wish – just like this one.

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Should this example/paper trade trigger to the long side as expected I will put the targets onto the chart and a potential way to manage the trade.

But first you HAVE to read the commentary on the chart below for an alternative view – one of them will work out which one?

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EDIT – I am aware that the EW count is on the WEEKLY chart and I’m talking about a trade on the DAILY chart – It is perfectly possible for this to happen – I will explain in full detail in a month or so

Do you use or look at SENTIMENT readings?

You should, they can be a good warning for buying opportunities or when the market is over-heating.

You can find out the data at Barrons – http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-investorsentimentreadings.html

Check out my THT Market Basics page for details on this and the levels that warrant closer inspection – details ARE within that page

The CURRENT market at time of writing 22nd February 2017 is fast approaching the lower levels of the zone to be cautious

All the best

THT

Gann Series Introduction- Feb 2017

I’m starting my series of W.D. Gann related posts from the beginning – There is still a huge veil of unknowing that still surrounds Gann to this day – some believe his claims of making $50,000,000 others don’t – What we do know is that Gann made some calls on Wheat and stocks that happened, How he managed to do exactly that we are ALL still searching for – Gann knew in advance what price and when a stock should turn/move to etc – Gann apportioned this to having worked out that markets/stocks VIBRATE according to Natural Law.  We will look at part of this in this post – future posts will develop the theory

In this Gann Series I will NOT be going into massive detail about this or that – you’ll either be interested or not – what I will do is show you you things, If you’re Interested you’ll then have the ability to research, expand knowledge and test for yourself on your own and in your own time – If I did everything for you, It would take up a huge amount of my time that I just don’t have available.

First the DISCLAIMER – I’ve personally avoided being drawn into the trading community, I’ve not subscribed to trading magazines, services, Internet groups or the like and still don’t – as I prefer to discover things for myself –  and I’ve not bought any of the courses on Gann from 3rd parties, apart from Gann’s own courses and Bradley F Cowans courses – I  bought the lot in one foul swoop from Mr. Cowan and have been exploring the markets scientifically ever since.  So I have no way or inclination of knowing that what I write about going forward in this and future Gann posts, has already been written about or not (I’ve come to trading late in the 2000’s, the discoveries I’ve made must have been discovered and written about prior to now, I would find it hard to believe that thousands of people who have looked at Gann have not found and explored what I’m going to talk about, especially since the Internet became mass used in the mid 90’s onwards  – The entire content of this series will be my own work, thoughts and interpretation of Gann’s works  – If I’ve used a source, it will be referred to as their work not mine.

I don’t think you need Gann’s courses either, but they are handy to own so that you can refer to etc – you won’t get too much out of them – REMEMBER I’m willing to bet tens of thousands of people since the 1950’s have owned and read his courses and that 95% of them are still none the wiser as to using his methods as 99% of the courses are generic – Gann’s course of Instructions on Gann Geometrical angles, can’t be employed successfully in today’s markets on there own – same with his course on time cycles (hit and miss at best) – you might be aware, but Gann sold a simple course and he also sold sold a much higher priced course that was much greater detailed (we’ll see evidence of this in future posts in this series)

First you NEED to learn and understand things that Gann Said in his material – we also need to make some assumptions too (this is the subjective part!(Where it can all go wrong!))  The reason we need to understand what Gann said is because he DID NOT reveal exactly his methods or calculations – he hid the true meaning in veiled words and sentences, so it’s important to start off thinking about where Gann came from and then work outwards to his methods from there, so that is what we shall do – Please note, this is NOT a detailed or in-depth analysis (I’ve no intention of writing a book on the subject so I don’t have to and won’t be 100% thorough – but you’ll have a enough to start thinking properly)

  1. Gann WAS a Freemason – You start to learn the secrets of the Egyptians AND Geometry in this cult (Yes it is a cult/sect)
  2. Do NOT dismiss this – it is more relevant than you know!
  3. For Example – The Great Fire of London happened early September 1666 – on the 11th September Sir Christopher Wren (Freemason) submitted plans to the King of England for the rebuilding of the part of the city that had been destroyed by the raging fire – These plans were based on the geometrical structure “Sephirothic Tree ” THEN just 2 days later on the 13th September 1666 John Evelyn (Freemason) presented virtually the same design to the King (1)
  4. The King rejected both designs – just stop and think for 1 minute, would it be possible for an Architect to draft and produce city plans in a handful of days???? Not a chance

kircher-tree

So these plans were rejected by the King of England, BUT over 100 years later the plans WERE implemented into a City – the newly found capital of the USA (Washington DC) – These plans were virtually identical to those produced by Wren for London!!!!!

You can bet your bottom dollar that within Washington DC street plan reference either written or visually represented by statues etc to those sacred aspects and terms on the Sephirothic Tree above

mall_overhead

  • This is well worth researching as you will find reference to this type of thing in Gann’s recommended reading
  • Gann’s Square of Nine is clearly a Pyramid – 2 Dimension looking from above it – Freemasonry Is heavily associated with The Egyptians – All you have to do is find Egyptian Obelisk’s that stand proudly in plain sight in London, Paris and Washington and find out where they were taken from – so it is 100% clear Ancient Egypt and Freemasonry are inter-connected.    As Gann was a master mason and his methods were very esoteric we subjectively connect the 2
  • Freemasonry was all about GEOMETRY & Numbers especially number relevance – it’s why certain ceremonies take place on certain dates and times.
  • Freemasonry is full of secrets – probably why Gann hid clues n his works rather than come out directly tell you
  • Gann WAS also an Astrologist – we have proof of this
  • What we don’t have proof of is that Gann used Astrology as we know & understand it i.e. Newspaper Astrology etc to trade from/with
  •  The quotes below should point you in the direction looked at things – we can prove this as they are taken directly from his marketing material he produced to sell his courses and books – straight from the horses mouth!
  • Having read Gann’s course and books it is obvious that Gann did NOT fully reveal his true methods – His Coffee Santos letter to a private student is probably one of a few letters that give you a clue to what he did and yet when you try to replicate this it is very very hard to know the markets EXACT moves! – Also Gann either intentially or not put errors in his work – this was either a genuine typo or an error to force the student to rework the figures to learn.
  • I will be publishing a special blog post referring to “Tunnel Thru the Air” at some point in the future
  • Now lets look at some key Gann quotes – all Gann quotes in “” – from his marketing material:
  • “Stocks are like Electrons, Atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental Law of Vibration.  Science teaches that an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into periodic or rhythmical motion” “Stocks like atoms are really centres of energies, therefore they are controlled mathematically.  Stocks create their own field of action and power, power to attract and repel”- I am working on this very thing right now – attract/repel is magnetic [see below] and THIS is very very important from my initial findings
  • “Faraday said There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force – My memory tells me this was MAGNETIC points of force, so Gann could have either got this wrong or replaced mathematics for magnetic in an attempt to divert you to look at magnetic properties etc or I might be wrong but I thought Faraday worked on magnetics not maths – It’s late and I can’t be bothered to look to reference it as it’s not that important – point is on Earth magnetism exits so do mathematics could be either or both
  • Law of Vibration “I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities.  This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements” “The Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and  phonographs are based “”There exists a periodic or  cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements” “The Law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and hourly movements of stocks.  By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met” “I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonic relationship to the driving power behind it.  the secret of all its activity is therefore apparent” “I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline” – It’s a best guess that this refers to the sympathetic resonance that exists in music and sound – this can be used as the planets cycle in cycles that harmonically resonate with each other (Gann’s Time Cycles are also Planetary cycles i.e. the 30 year cycle is Saturn – this is mentioned in one of his courses directly – whether intentionally or unintentionally / which then allows you to explore all the other planets).  The last quote could also reference Gann’s Soybean chart with Jupiter and Mars Interacting – as can be seen from his [Gann’s] Soybean chart, with Mar’s position plotted in PRICE as well as Jupiter’s and when the two meet price faced big resistance – The Time cycles that I present on this site are based on Sympathetic Resonance (This is WHY static Time Cycles don’t work that well, as at times the source cycle could be in a fast or slow speed depending upon where it is at in its cycle)
  • Astrology & Scientific methods – “Time proves ALL things, even when stocks make tops and bottoms….because we know by MATHEMATICAL SCIENCE when time cycles repeat. These valuable rules are all in the Bible if you know where to find them” – This clue is obviously directly related to ASTRONOMY as you can PROVE the EXACT location of the planets based on pure mathematical science (Astrology is NOT a mathematical science, but Astronomy IS)
  • In Gann’s reading list there is a book called – Teritum Orgamum – this book is about the 3rd and 4th Dimensions –  Gann’s Master chart lesson says “Market movements are made just the same as any other thing which is constructed.  It is just the same as constructing a building.  First the foundation has to be laid then the four sides have to be completed and last, but not least of all, the top has to be put on.  The cube or hexagon proves exactly the law which works because of time and space in the market.  When a building is put up it is built according to a square or hexagon,  It has four walls or four sides, a bottom and a top: therefore, it is a cubeThe cube is a 3 Dimensional object that looks like a hexagon when it is viewed on a 2 Dimensional page/chart – Gann produced a hexagon chart!  Gann’s references to the 4th Dimension happened in the latter part of his life in the 1950’s – so he was not using this when he made his 1909 wheat 120 trade prediction – Gann also produced a Master Calculator that overlaid a chart which lots of geometrical lines, he produced this to see the other dimensions hidden within the 2 D chart
  • “The Master calculator locates the Corner stone, the key stone and the cap stone for price and time trend.  It proves the master number and master time factor and shows how and why they work on price” “The Master calculator proves 9 divisions of time from one centre or time factor and shows at a glance whether price of stocks or commodities are in the weak or strong position” – The stones Gann refers to are Egyptian and can be found in pyramids – Masons also refer to them and have them in buildings they build with ceremonies at the laying of the corner stone as previously mentioned in the first part of this blog post and why I linked in to Egyptians!!!!!!!  This is another area I am working on as I think this is the key.  Gann only mentions this once or twice in his entire works but I think it’s absolutely crucial – I’ll link this in to Gann’s Square of Nine in future posts.
  • There is so much rubbish and speculation out there as to Gann’s methods and YET – NO-ONE has come close to replicating Gann’s success.  I am under the belief that out there somewhere there is a series of letters from Gann to a personal private student to whom he’s divulged his exact method, we’ve yet to find or see such a letter as Gann made his student sign a confidentiality clause or such copies may simply not exist!  I’m also of the opinion that Gann might never of revealed his exact methods – there is absolutely nothing in his courses that back up his Wheat 120 call – the methods he reveals don’t allow you to make such calls and hundred’s of traders have since tried to look for such a method WITHOUT success

I’ve shown you that Freemasonry is not as clear cut as you might think – this has been proven in Wren trying to model London on the S Tree! and when he failed the newly found USA incorporated it – going waaaaay off piste – did you know that America is actually referred to in Scottish text (Freemasonry of course!) DECADES before it was “officially” discovered by Europeans!

I’ll stop here as I could just keep on going as there’s too much material around.

Apologies for any typo’s, grammatical errors etc – this document has not been proof read and I don’t intend to do so.

(1) Source – “The Master Game” by Hancock & Bauval ISBN 978-1-934708-64-4

 

 

 

12%profit return from a 3.14% price move?

Your’e kidding me right?

Gann said DECADES AGGGOOOOOOOOOO “Make big profits off small risks” – Nowhere did he say make average profits from big risks.

Chart says it all

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Just so we’re clear – I have NOT revealed exactly how you do this or how often this happens and don’t plan to in this post – I am creating a set-up on this though and it will be available to purchase in 2017 (sometime)

But if you can’t make 25%+ from this method a year something is wrong (on a daily chart) – Doesn’t take many 12% returns to make serious money

Special Report – EURUSD

The EURUSD is in very dangerous territory – The probability of it reaching PARITY (1:1) with the US$ is very high.

Key is to watch price  – If it follows the DTosc then it is likely to reach 1 for 1

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I don’t trade the forex markets anymore so for me this is just observational.

You’ve not got Gann’s Triple bottom formed – Price at the 4th Attempt is likely to go through- said Gann.

Every logical trading notation screams lower prices – but WILL price comply?

IF price follows the swings as it has formed over the past 9 years then the Grey’d out area (vertical) to the right of the WEEKLY chart is a high probability price Zone in the weeks to follow.

For guidance – the next BEARISH AND BULLISH Weekly DTosc reversals are likely to signal the strength of the market which will be confirmed by price action and the price moves.

I might (If I remember) update this chart in the weeks that follow to update the chart – I’m focusing on a couple of stocks for my personal Investment though which might take my time away from ancillary posts like this.