When will the FED raise rates?

Well there is a high link between the 3 Month Treasury bill and the fed raising rates.

All you have to do is watch the 3-month treasury – when it starts rising it will signal the potential for a Fed rate increase

this link can be seen and proved since 2000 – I’ve not published the charts, if interested to see the correlation I’ll leave it to you to source from the Elliott Wave site

Source: Elliott Wave International

When will Bank Base Rate Rise?

I continually hear people from all over the place talking about Bank Base Rates.

You know they type of conversations “When do you think it will rise?”, “It’s been low for so long, don’t they [the bank] know what damage its doing to my income”…..etc

Well of course they are correct, low rates affect many people differently and they have been going on since 2008 now which is a long time.

Or is it?

(more…)

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named

Actually this article was written and produced in September 2014 – I just didn’t publish it on this site – and NOW Deflation is panicking all the finance chiefs of Europe – Predicted years ago and continually – WELL DONE Elliot Wave International for your bold and analytically stance throughout this Deflationary Depression we’ve been in since March 2000.

Very few people called it right – from recollection a handful – well done

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named
The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a “Japan-style” deflation. Here’s our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It’s happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that’s akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: “deflation.”

And it’s not just “deflation.” You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

“Falling prices during deflation actually encourage consumers to spend.”

But once you add the following two very distinct words, there’s no way to turn that frown upside down. And those words are“Japan-style” deflation.

Japan has languished in a deflationary cycle pretty much since the late 1990s, its once booming economy reduced to ‘lost decades’ of stagnation. Europe is now teetering on the edge.” (Sept. 19, Associated Press)

Which begs an obvious question: Weren’t Europe’s central banks supposed to prevent this very scenario from happening via their unprecedented, 4-year-long campaign of “money-printing,” bond-buying and interest-rate-slashing?

The answer to that question is… yes. Those actions were indeed supposed to boost inflation.

What’s more, no one can say the European Central Bank didn’t utilize every available tool in their arsenal to try and accomplish that end. The problem is they were fighting a losing battle.

And, we are both happy and sad at the same time to report that from the very beginning, when the first rate cut was loaded into the save-the-economy cannon, we at Elliott Wave International foresaw that Europe’s retreat toward deflation was unavoidable.

Here’s a quick recap of what led us to that conclusion.

— 2011 —

January 2011: The “D” word is way off the mainstream radar. Soaring oil, grain, and commodity prices has fueled widespread fears of runaway inflation. Writes one January 22, 2011 LA Times article:

“Around the world, many countries aren’t confronted with the debilitating forces of deflation, but the opposite — inflation. Annualized inflation in the euro zone rose above the 2% target rate for the first time in more than 2 years.”

February 2011: The European Central Bank unveils its brand-new Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), extending nearly half a trillion euros in 3-year loans to banks at negligible interest rates — to stimulate the economy (and inflation).

July 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index declines, prompting a sigh of relief, not a shudder of fear from the Bank of England, who says “we can now breathe a little easier.”

(VS.)

Our August 2011 European Financial Forecast:

“We maintain our stance, however, that the looming threat is not inflation but deflation. Far from a sense of relief, the Banks’ paramount feelings should soon develop into an unrelenting dread.”

September 2011: U.K.’s consumer price index peaks at 5.2% and officially sets the downtrend in motion.

— 2012 —

January 2012: The Bank of England adds another 50 billion pounds to its asset purchase program, bringing its 3-year campaign of “money-printing” to 325 billion. The European Central Bank is less than 14 years old, yet total assets at the ECB breach 3 trillion.

February/March 2012: U.K. producer price inflation comes in higher than expected, prompting one U.K. economist to say: “PPI: Another wake-up call for apoplithorismosphobes,” the clinical term for those who fear deflation. The economist goes on to recommend that sufferers “seek therapy.” (March 12 Wall Street Journal)

(VS.)

Our July 2012 European Financial Forecast:

“Our models say that inflation rates will keep failing until they’re again measuring the rate of deflation as they last did briefly in 2009.”

August 2012 European Financial Forecast makes the first comparison of Europe to Japan:

“European leaders,” by slashing rates and printing money “seem determined to replicate Japan’s experience. Their efforts will not stop consumer price deflation.”

— 2014 —

May 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“The chart shows that British CPI accelerated lower after falling from a counter-trend peak of 5.2% back in September 2011, with year-over-year price growth just ticks above its late-2009 low.

“More than half of the 28 EU nations either teeter on the brink of deflation or have succumbed to falling prices already.

“The following chart shows that economic stagnation has reached even Germany, Europe’s most robust economy.”

September 2014 European Financial Forecast:

“In a related phenomenon, the press has now jumped on the slew of similarities between Europe’s flagging economy and Japan’s… Clearly, the parallel paths of the two regions have become impossible for the press to ignore.

“The central bank’s latest deflation-fighting contrivance is a €400 billion package of targeted LTRO loans, which are designed to compel banks to lend to ordinary business owners. Also like Japan, the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate to 0.15% and now charges for banks’ overnight deposits. The result? Shown below, Europe’s largest economy, Germany, just contracted 0.2%; French economic output has ground to a halt; and Italy just entered its third recession since 2008.

The world has finally woken up to the possibility of a Japan-style deflation in Europe — years after the writing was already on the wall.

Now, you need to prepare for what’s to come.

The best part is, Elliott Wave International’s Founder and President, Robert Prechter, as written a book that can help you do just that. And you can read 8 chapters of Prechter’s bestseller, Conquer the Crash, free.


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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named… Was Just Named. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

ESSENTIAL/MUST read

It’s not often that I do this – it’s a Saturday afternoon and I’ve interrupted my day to post this.

You have to read the March 2014 issue of Elliott Wave Theorist – it does mean BUYING it, you don’t obtain this type of information for free I’m afraid.  You will need to subscribe to the Elliott Wave Theorist to obtain March 2014 issue

You are highly unlikely EVER to read the content of the report in the mainstream media and it also helps to confirm/back-up what I’ve been saying about the Fed and USA Government.  If you’re an American then the implications are massive not only for your Investments but your lives, If you’re not an American citizen then it’s bound to have an impact on your Investments/Life to some degree – better to be prepared, than “suddenly out of the blue” find out

In fact this report/months EWT applies to EVERYBODY in the world, it is that important, all I can do is alert you (you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t force it to drink) you’ve been alerted!

Here’s a link:

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=statgrphc&url=/wave/022114aff&tcn=ag022114&acn=hvt1211

China Starts To Make A Power Move Against The U.S. Dollar

 

Again another very common-sense, compelling read from our friends at: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Those that subscribe to EWT/EWFF will be familiar with the concepts discussed below.  I’m sharing the article, because these concerns/assumptions have been known and discussed by others for a lot of years, it’s satisfying when others join the lone wolves at the party  Again I think before it gets to the destructive phase some sort of deal/solution with materialise to ease the pain, however, make no doubt if the worst does happen it will be painful, very painful.  But as usual use common sense, people bought Gold and got sucked into the hype back in 2010/2011, if it happens you’ll know about it, it might not happen there are no guarantees.

China Starts To Make A Power Move Against The U.S. Dollar

Posted: 20 Feb 2014 05:37 PM PST

US Dollars - Photo by selbstfotografiertIn order for our current level of debt-fueled prosperity to continue, the rest of the world must continue to use our dollars to trade with one another and must continue to buy our debt at ridiculously low interest rates.  Of course the number one foreign nation that we depend on to participate in our system is China.  China accounts for more global trade than anyone else on the planet (including the United States), and most of that trade is conducted in U.S. dollars.  This keeps demand for our dollars very high, and it ensures that we can import massive quantities of goods from overseas at very low cost.  As a major exporting nation, China ends up with gigantic piles of our dollars.  They lend many of those dollars back to us at ridiculously low interest rates.  At this point, China owns more of our national debt than any other country does.  But if China was to decide to quit playing our game and started moving away from U.S. dollars and U.S. debt, our economic prosperity could disappear very rapidly.  Demand for the U.S. dollar would fall and prices would go up.  And interest rates on our debt and everything else in our financial system would go up to crippling levels.  So it is absolutely critical to our financial future that China continues to play our game.

Unfortunately, there are signs that China has now decided to start looking for a smooth exit from the game.  In November, I wrote about how the central bank of China has announced that it is “no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves”.  That means that the pile of U.S. dollars that China is sitting on is not going to get any higher.

In addition, China has signed a whole host of international currency agreements with other nations during the past couple of years which are going to result in less U.S. dollars being used in international trade.  You can read about many of these agreements in this article.

This week, we learned that China started to dump U.S. debt during the month of December.  Many have imagined that China would try to dump a flood of our debt on to the market all of a sudden once they decided to exit, but that simply does not make sense.  Instead, it makes sense for China to dump a bit of debt at a time so that the market will not panic and so that they can get close to full value for the paper that they are holding.

As Bloomberg reported the other day, China dumped nearly 50 billion dollars of U.S. debt during the month of December…

China, the largest foreign U.S. creditor, reduced holdings of U.S. Treasury debt in December by the most in two years as the Federal Reserve announced plans to slow asset purchases.

The nation pared its position in U.S. government bonds by $47.8 billion, or 3.6 percent, to $1.27 trillion, the largest decline since December 2011, according to U.S. Treasury Department data released yesterday.

This is how I would do it if I was China.  I would try to dump 30, 40 or 50 billion dollars a month.  I would try to make a smooth exit and try to get as much for my U.S. debt paper as I could.

So if China is not going to stockpile U.S. dollars or U.S. debt any longer, what is it going to stockpile?

It is going to stockpile gold of course.  In fact, China has been voraciously stockpiling gold for quite some time, and their hunger for gold appears to be growing.

According to Bloomberg, more than 80 percent of the gold that was exported from Switzerland last month went to Asia…

Switzerland sent more than 80 percent of its gold and silver bullion and coin exports to Asia last month, the Swiss Federal Customs Administration said today in an e-mailed report. It imported most from the U.K.

Hong Kong was the top destination at 44 percent on a value basis, with India at 14 percent, the Bern-based customs agency said in its first breakdown of the gold trade data since 1980. Singapore accounted for 8.6 percent of exports, the United Arab Emirates 7.9 percent and China 6.3 percent.

When China imports gold, most of it goes through Hong Kong.  We know that imports of gold from Hong Kong into China are at an all-time record high, but we don’t know exactly how much gold China has accumulated at this point because they quit reporting that to the rest of the world a number of years ago.

When it comes to global finance, China is playing chess and the United States is playing checkers.  China knows that gold is a universal currency that will hold value over the long-term.  As the paper currencies of the world race toward collapse, China could end up holding most of the real money and that would be a huge game changer when they finally reveal that fact…

The announcement of China’s new gold hoard will send shockwaves through the financial markets, and make China and the Chinese yuan (their national currency) even bigger players at the international table.

International banking expert James Rickards compared it to a game of Texas Hold ‘Em poker:

“You want a big pile of chips. The U.S. has a big pile of chips, Europe has a big pile of chips. The U.S. has 8,000 tonnes [metric tons] of gold, 17 members of the euro system have 10,000 tonnes. China at 1,000 tonnes is not a player, but at 5,000 tonnes, they are a player.”

There are some really good points made in the quote above, but I do take exception with a couple of things.  First of all, I believe that China now has far more than 5,000 tons of gold.  Secondly, I seriously doubt that the U.S. still actually has 8,000 tons of gold or that Europe still actually has 10,000 tons of gold.

As China (and eventually the rest of the world) moves away from a U.S.-based financial system, the consequences are going to be dramatic.

For instance, right now the average rate of interest that the U.S. government pays on debt is just 2.477 percent.  That is ridiculously low and it is way below the real rate of inflation.  It is simply not rational for anyone to lend the U.S. government money so cheaply, and at some point we are going to see a dramatic shift.

When that day arrives, interest rates are going to rise dramatically.  And if the average rate of interest on U.S. government debt rises to just 6 percent (and it has been much higher than that in the past), we will be paying out more than a trillion dollars a year just in interest on the national debt.

Even more frightening is what a rapidly changing interest rate environment would mean for our banking system.  There are four large U.S. banks that each have exposure to derivatives in excess of 40 trillion dollars.  You can find the identity of those banks right here.  Interest rate derivatives make up the biggest chunk of those derivatives contracts.  As John Embry told King World News just the other day, when that bubble bursts the carnage is going to be unprecedented…

“Stockman brought up a brilliant point, the fact that we have hundreds of trillions of dollars of interest rate swaps, which are polluting the world’s banking system. If we see growing volatility in interest rates, and I think that’s inevitable with what’s going on, that would cause spasms in the financial system. And if something goes wrong in the derivatives market, Heaven help us because the leverage that is imparted to the banking system through these derivatives is unholy.”

Unfortunately, very few of the “experts” will ever see this crash coming.

Very few of them saw it coming in 2000.

Very few of them saw it coming in 2008.

And very few of them will see it coming this time.

I really like what Paul B. Farrell had to say about this…

Early warnings of a crash are dismissed over and over (“just a temporary correction”). They gradually numb us about the inevitable. Time after time we forget history’s lessons. Until finally a big surprise catches us totally off-guard. Financial historian Niall Ferguson put it this way: Before the crash, our world seems almost stationary, deceptively so, balanced, at a set point. So that when the crash finally hits — as inevitably it will — everyone seems surprised. And our brains keep telling us it’s not time for a crash.

Till then, life just goes along quietly, hypnotizing us, making us vulnerable, till a shocker like Lehman Brothers upsets the balance. Then, says Ferguson, the crash is “accelerating suddenly, like a sports car … like a thief in the night.” It hits. Shocks us wide awake.

Don’t let the upcoming crash take you by surprise.

The warning signs are very clear.

Get ready while you still can.

Money - Photo by Pen Waggener

Like gold? World Gold Council Report

Quick link to the World Gold Councils latest report on Global Gold.

If you study the stats one thing that jumps out are the ETF sales – These are Investments the public make, they’ve been ditching gold as it’s fallen, probably pumping those funds into the stock market!

It is a well known fact that when the mass public collectively do something the game is often nearly up.

http://www.gold.org/investment/research/regular_reports/gold_demand_trends/?utm_source=Newsweaver&utm_medium=email&utm_term=GDT&utm_campaign=Released+today%3A+Gold+Demand+Trends+2013

Quick update to those following on social media – I don’t really do social media, I generate the blog posts and have it link in to social media, hence why I never tweet or facebook in general.

20 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire

Another great article from http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com – subscribe to his site and get the updates as they are released.

Read the article below, get a cup of tea or coffee, read the article again and think of the deep impact of the statements.

I’m intrigued by #19 – I noticed the coincidence a few weeks back and have been trying to link them, something eventually will surface and you can bet that something is going on that we are not yet aware of.

On the grander scheme of things, these types of events are the common aspects associated with Deflationary Depressions, if you have read up on socionomics then you’ll understand how it fits.

I have to state, in case new readers to the blog read this post – I don’t agree with the US market outlook, yes things are very very bad, I just don’t think the stock market will act as everyone is thinking – I have posted my thoughts on the likely stock market movements in other blog posts – search through them to see.

Any it’s another great article, enjoy reading it.

20 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire

Posted: 13 Feb 2014 02:59 PM PST

Lighting A Match - Photo by Sebastian RitterIf you have been waiting for the “global economic crisis” to begin, just open up your eyes and look around.  I know that most Americans tend to ignore what happens in the rest of the world because they consider it to be “irrelevant” to their daily lives, but the truth is that the massive economic problems that are currently sweeping across Europe, Asia and South America are going to be affecting all of us here in the U.S. very soon.  Sadly, most of the big news organizations in this country seem to be more concerned about the fate of Justin Bieber’s wax statue in Times Square than about the horrible financial nightmare that is gripping emerging markets all over the planet.  After a brief period of relative calm, we are beginning to see signs of global financial instability that are unlike anything that we have witnessed since the financial crisis of 2008.  As you will see below, the problems are not just isolated to a few countries.  This is truly a global phenomenon.

Over the past few years, the Federal Reserve and other global central banks have inflated an unprecedented financial bubble with their reckless money printing.  Much of this “hot money” poured into emerging markets all over the world.  But now that the Federal Reserve has begun “tapering” quantitative easing, investors are taking this as a sign that the party is ending.  Money is being pulled out of emerging markets all over the globe at a staggering pace and this is creating a tremendous amount of financial instability.  In addition, the economic problems that have been steadily growing over the past few years in established economies throughout Europe and Asia just continue to escalate.  The following are 20 signs that the global economic crisis is starting to catch fire…

#1 The unemployment rate in Greece has hit a brand new record high of 28 percent.

#2 The youth unemployment rate in Greece has hit a brand new record high of 64.1 percent.

#3 The percentage of bad loans in Italy is at an all-time record high.

#4 Italian industrial output declined again in December, and the Italian government is on the verge of collapse.

#5 The number of jobseekers in France has risen for 30 of the last 32 months, and at this point it has climbed to a new all-time record high.

#6 The total number of business failures in France in 2013 was even higher than in any year during the last financial crisis.

#7 It is being projected that housing prices in Spain will fall another 10 to 15 percent as their economic depression deepens.

#8 The economic and political turmoil in Turkey is spinning out of control.  The government has resorted to blasting protesters with pepper spray and water cannons in a desperate attempt to restore order.

#9 It is being estimated that the inflation rate in Argentina is now over 40 percent, and the peso is absolutely collapsing.

#10 Gangs of armed bandits are roaming the streets in Venezuela as the economic chaos in that troubled nation continues to escalate.

#11 China appears to be very serious about deleveraging.  The deflationary effects of this are going to be felt all over the planet. The following is an excerpt from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s recent article entitled “World asleep as China tightens deflationary vice“…

China’s Xi Jinping has cast the die. After weighing up the unappetising choice before him for a year, he has picked the lesser of two poisons.

The balance of evidence is that most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong aims to prick China’s $24 trillion credit bubble early in his 10-year term, rather than putting off the day of reckoning for yet another cycle.

This may be well-advised for China, but the rest of the world seems remarkably nonchalant over the implications.

#12 There was a significant debt default by a coal company in China last Friday

A high-yield investment product backed by a loan to a debt-ridden coal company failed to repay investors when it matured last Friday, state media reported on Wednesday, in the latest sign of financial stress in China’s shadow bank sector.

#13 Japan’s Nikkei stock index has already fallen by 14 percent so far in 2014.  That is a massive decline in just a month and a half.

#14 Ukraine continues to fall apart financially

The worsening political and economic circumstances in Ukraine has prompted the Fitch Ratings agency to downgrade Ukrainian debt from B to a pre–default level CCC. This is lower than Greece, and Fitch warns of future financial instability.

#15 The unemployment rate in Australia has risen to the highest level in more than 10 years.

#16 The central bank of India is in a panic over the way that Federal Reserve tapering is effecting their financial system.

#17 The effects of Federal Reserve tapering are also being felt in Thailand

In the wake of the US Federal Reserve tapering, emerging economies with deteriorating macroeconomic figures or visible political instability are being punished by skittish markets. Thailand is drifting towards both these tendencies.

#18 One of Ghana’s most prominent economists says that the economy of Ghana will crash by June if something dramatic is not done.

#19 Yet another banker has mysteriously died during the prime years of his life.  That makes five “suspicious banker deaths” in just the past two weeks alone.

#20 The behavior of the U.S. stock market continues to parallel the behavior of the U.S. stock market in 1929.

Yes, things don’t look good right now, but it is important to keep in mind that this is just the beginning.

This is just the leading edge of the next great financial storm.

The next two years (2014 and 2015) are going to represent a major “turning point” for the global economy.  By the end of 2015, things are going to look far different than they do today.

None of the problems that caused the last financial crisis have been fixed.  Global debt levels have grown by 30 percent since the last financial crisis, and the too big to fail banks in the United States are 37 percent larger than they were back then and their behavior has become even more reckless than before.

As a result, we are going to get to go through another “2008-style crisis”, but I believe that this next wave is going to be even worse than the previous one.

So hold on tight and get ready.  We are going to be in for quite a bumpy ride.

Lighting A Match - Photo by Sebastian Ritter

Very Long-Term charts

If you are at all interested in the markets then these are worth a peek:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-08/long-term-charts-1-american-markets-independence

Richard Russell speaks

You need to read this, you need to save the content too – I am writing a blog post on what to possibly expect going forward – most people seem content that a 1929 style event is prepping, I’m not 100% convinced, only time will tell – I am expecting a decent fall though!

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/2/3_Richard_Russell_-_The_Stock_Market_Is_On_The_Edge_Of_A_Crash.html

Remember in previous posts I’ve mentioned and highlight my concerns with the Fed, Gold supplies and reported storage numbers – looks like other people do too.

 

Enjoy

 

 

 

 

Probably The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read This Year

Here’s your chance to read an exclusive Elliott Wave International report – I keep banging on about how good their research and analysis is – well this is your chance to see for yourself.  They’re releasing parts of the report every day for a week, once you’ve signed up for FREE, they’ll make sure you get the reports.

As usual ignore any reference to wave counts, they look good and work after the fact, what we are looking for here is the factual analysis on the state of the economy and it’s potential effects – this kind of analysis, as I’ve mentioned before, just does not get published by the mainstream media and when your money is at stake it’s important to have the facts to then make Investment decisions from

I personally swear by EWI’s Independent research , it helps me to see the bigger picture that you can’t see from the mainstream media

Enjoy

THT

 
Exclusive invitation: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released their new 50-page  report for independent investors, The State  of the Global Markets — 2014 Edition: The Most Important Investment Report  You’ll Read This Year. Normally priced at $199, they have allowed us on an  exclusive, limited-time basis to share with you the choicest selections from it  for FREE.Learn more and read the report now >>

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Consider yourself warned.

The global market outlook is far less rosy than the  so-called experts would have you believe.

  • Global stocks have set record highs, yet sentiment readings have hit off-the-charts extremes.
  • Gold, silver and bonds are in multi-year bear markets.
  • Investors in major markets around the world are exposing their money to unprecedented (and mostly unknown) risks.
  • Regional economies recently said to be “recovering” are slipping back into recession.
  • And despite widespread excitement for stocks, Main Street is still struggling.

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About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International       Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.