S&P500 UPDATE

Original post here: https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/sp500-review-friday-10th-march-2017/

Absolutely SPOT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Once again I’m proving to you that it is very possible to predict price and time simply

Yes we can use cycles and fancy advanced methods – but to start off with we can use the price and time basics of previous swings, throw in a decent accurate Indicator and you then have a potential high probability set of items that can be used to profit from the markets

By the way the HIGH was confirmed yesterday when price CLOSED below the previous swing low.

So what we now have on our hands is either:

  1. Prices are going to crash
  2. Prices might have a major, Intermediate or minor correction and then resume upwards to new highs

Unless you know EXACTLY where we are in the market (and nobody does) then you just have to WAIT.

I don’t know what it is but the past month a number of Elliott Wavers have come into contact with me – they gave up counting waves a few weeks ago as it became unclear what wave number the market was in! You can’t just give up naming waves! If you know the market is moving in Elliott Waves then you should have wave count – the fact that, that got blown out of the window tells you everything you need to know about how accurate EWT really is!

Gut Reaction?

Well my gut reaction is that this is just a temporary minor or Intermediate level correction the onus is still BULLISH so you have to expect new highs until a bear market is seen – It could just track sideways to!

It really is this simple! There’s no need to over complicate things

The Butterfly & Gartley Method

This one and it’s offshoots are in the generic trading community and you’ve more than likely come across it already .

You may even use it, you may have seen it and discounted it and you may have tried it and given up – Let me show you how to use it properly – The Hovis Trader way.

In the 1930’s a book was written by a man called Gartley – on page 222 he showed a trading set-up that has now become known as the Gartley 222 method – It also has variations to it.

I am certain the web is full of detail on this method, so I’m not going to explain all the traits of the set-up, if you want to that is up to YOU to do – link at the end.

Depending upon the price activity and form of the set-up it can be known as a BAT, CRAB, BUTTERFLY or straight-forward Gartley 222 pattern

The purpose of this post is to show you how I use this set-up method in my trading, as It’s not as the trading method was created (although I do trade the BULLISH trades when I see them)

Now the whole point of the set-up is to identify the ENDING part/zone and then prepare to take trades in the OPPOSITE direction (As usual Charts will detail content), to catch the longer term trade reversal.

The problem is this does not always happen! As this is trading, it does not happen 100% of the time I’m afraid!

However, if the set-up sets up, then the market offers you a chance of playing the game in the run-up to the target zone! THIS is my PREFERRED way to trade these BEFORE price action reaches the target zone!  I did say at the start that I’ve put my own mark on this method!

There’s time when I’ve reviewed a market, decided to trade it and THEN I’ve noticed that it’s in a Gartley/Butterfly position!  When you trade pullbacks this will happen as a natural process of trading pullbacks!

Now I know in the charts below some of the set-ups aren’t exact proper Gartley and Butterfly methods – I use my knowledge to trade when I see similar formations – I don’t work strictly to the exact methods – If this is new to you I would suggest that you do stick to the exact methods.

I only trade long, so I only take trades on potential BEARISH Gartley’s and I get in at point B and point C for Butterflies (see chart below) and point c for BULLISH Gartley’s

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http://harmonictrader.com/blog/2013/08/03/gartley/

Now If you’ve invested £20 into Robert Miners book “high probability trading methods” you will notice that these methods ALL fit within his fib price ratios for an Elliott Wave ABC corrective pattern – so you could just use Miners ratios and the ABC and you WILL pick these set-ups up naturally – keep it as simple as possible.

For the sake of £20 – I would urge you to get the book, read it, put it away for a few weeks, read it again, put it away and 1 week later get it out again, read it and test the methods on the market – thinking all the time about market form and reactions – If you focus on Elliott wave exactness then you will drive yourself insane, just apply the basic methods and you’ll win.  The methods in that book allow you to WIN even when WRONG on the formation forming!  In my opinion the book and Ganns basic methods are the real holy grail in the markets

I don’t care whether it’s a Bat, Gartley, Butterfly, Shark or a dog – all I’m bothered about is, Is it a high probability trading opportunity that if it works out as expected then makes me 3R+

Do not get hung up on these fitting perfectly – If you’re trading LONG – then you want to get in at the lows and see if the move works out as expected.

Disclosure:  I do refine my trades to increase the probability, which is NOT shown on the charts above, but if you own Miners book – HPTM – then you’ll of read it in there. This blog is for INFORMATION purposes only – trade at your OWN risk

S&P500 – REVIEW Friday 10th March 2017

Hi,

I’m writing this analysis of the S&P500 Friday evening 10th March 2017 as a basic review of the S&P500 market.

Detail on the charts – Basic analysis based on previous SWINGS of the market

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Based on basic time and price analysis what I’m saying is – we are at a juncture that is unclear, but that outlook might become much more clear as time passes.

Trying to guess every swing up and down of minor moves is a fools game in my opinion – REMEMBER both those charts are BULLISH – there is absolutely no information on those charts that suggest a bearish scenario! None what so ever.

WHAT I’m SHOWING you is that is IS POSSIBLE to gauge the markets most likely movement based on time, price and an indicator!

Only last WEEK I warned someone to be wary of a top forming – that has now HAPPENED

The KEY is to watch the Weekly high – If that gets taken out then everything swings back to the upside, if it’s not taken out and further lows are printed then we are in the situation of a possible sideways to down market for the next few weeks – we should find out next week who’s in power, the bulls or bears

UPDATE – Got it right so far

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Close of play Friday – changed the DTosc!

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Still waiting for the CRASH?

As I mentioned yeeeeaaaarrrrs agooooooo

I think you’re in for a very long wait.

The markets did within reason what I was expecting from as far back as 2012/13 – 4-5 years ago!

I think this is do or die for the Elliott Wave Method – again as mentioned on here back in 2012 or 2013 – they do not have any option but a massive crash – it’s already over extended (1st spouted waaaaay back in 1986 – yes 1986) then repeated in 2000, 2007 and most recently ALL the way from the 2009 bottom.

It Is NOT going to happen

Gann WAS AWARE of Ralph.N. Elliott and his method as they were around at the same time – but Gann never mentions it, I’m working on a method that is more advanced than Elliott Wave Principle – Gann knew that the market puts in more “waves” than 5 up and 3 down = 8 (there’s an extra few more waves) as I’ve NEVER been happy with Elliott Wave Theory in its current form.

Anyway, ALWAYS trade in the direction of the market and as you can SEE from the chart below since 2009 which way has the big thick arrow been pointing?

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At some point in time there WILL be a decent correction of significance – 15%, 20%, 25% etc and AS the growth of the market is greater than years gone by then so will any correction – A 30% correction @ 5,000 will have bigger looking swings than those 30% corrections @ 1000 – yet the % drops are likely to be similar.

Good luck

Ted Baker?

EVERY night I scour the FTSE350 Index for possible trades, once found I shove them into a prospect list on my charting software to review.

Sometimes the prospects are ripe and ready to place orders for the next mornings open – other such as this are what I calling “getting into position” this means their not quite fully formed as a trade but getting close.

There’s no guarantee these comply and often you just have to ditch the chart as the market failed to form as required – REMEMBER WE ONLY TAKE TRADES THAT ARE ULTRA HIGH PROBABILITIES.

Details on chart – I will update the chart going forward in later posts so that you can follow it’s progress or failure whichever it may happen to be.

The outlook is BULLISH purely down to the WEEKLY DTosc position as it is – that does not mean we trade now!

PS – This is purely for educational value, I have absolutely NO intention of trading this market – I just want to show you that if you find a pattern that repeats often in the markets then you can trade them should you wish – just like this one.

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Should this example/paper trade trigger to the long side as expected I will put the targets onto the chart and a potential way to manage the trade.

But first you HAVE to read the commentary on the chart below for an alternative view – one of them will work out which one?

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EDIT – I am aware that the EW count is on the WEEKLY chart and I’m talking about a trade on the DAILY chart – It is perfectly possible for this to happen – I will explain in full detail in a month or so