Time Cycle Due 6th December 2016 – Update

It is looking more and more likely that the Time cycle arrived EARLY on 4th November 2016. See chart below for details – there’s still a little time left for this to be proved incorrect but it’s getting tight – remember with long range cycles they have to have a good few weeks lee-way either side of the expected date.

HOWEVER, as the sudden explosive force the markets shown around the TC date it’s well and truly odds-on that the new UP cycle that we’ve been talking about and I’ve been counting down to every month for the past year has ARRIVED, which is why the markets have been propelling upwards with force.

The Nasdaq100 is slightly diverging from the Dow and S&P500

The WEEKLY and DAILY DTosc’s for the Dow and S&P500 have been BEARISH for a while now and PRICE is refusing to fall/decline significantly – this is a BULLISH outlook.

It is not out of the ordinary if those markets show further price gains – this is highly likely to be in unison with the WEEKLY DTosc becoming BEAR OS or BULLISH and the DAILY DTosc turning BULLISH

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The Nasdaq 100 also made a LOW on the 4th November 2016

I did say it could come in a 4 week period either side of the expected date AND that the low point would not necessarily be a major price low – the charts above support the expectation and you need to read the remaining info as this sort of info backs up the thinking – also note if you were expecting a major low then you’ve not understood things – The major LOW of this down cycle was 2009 (as mentioned years ago)

Look at the number of days from low to low in the 2 charts below!

Mid-Cycle LOW of the DOWN cycle to LOW of the END of the Cycle

Chart 1 = 1974-1982 (Down Cycle)

Chart 2 = 2009-2016 (Down Cycle)

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Dates highlighted by Stock Market Geometry

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Dates highlighted by Stock Market Geometry

The REASON why the charts look different at the end is because in 1982 the August low was the same cycle that arrived in August 2015, whereas the Dec 2016 Cycle arrived in 1981 – so this time around the cycles arrived in a DIFFERENT ORDER than in 1982

The chart below is to show you the effect of the Time Cycle [TC] on the FTSE100 – throughout this process the effects of all the TC’s have been more pronounced on the FTSE100

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Now on the chart below this is what I’ve had on one of my charts for a long time – The chart looks at the MAJOR turning points of the market over years and decades and is basically Pythagoras’s Theorem with the price range as the hypotenuse – This creates what’s known in engineering as a VECTOR – A Vector can pivot about its point of anchor and spin around 360 degrees (Didn’t W.D. Gann focus on the circle and 360 degs?) – If you take a Vector length and use it to draw a circle, the circle will create ARCS that can be used for both TIMING and PRICE levels (Blog post on that coming sometime in 2017) TIP – Not all Circles are centred at price highs and lows, the centre is often way out of the way unrelated to price/time until it becomes obvious the circle was cradling price and time (no examples in this chart BUT It is the feature of a future blog post in the pipeline)

On the chart is a list of results for PRICE when projecting out previous  Vectors – the vector of  the 2000 – 2003 CRASH when multiplied by the Square root of TWO (1.414)and then converted to a price level gives you 2080.87

The LOW of 4th November 2016 = 2083.79

3 points difference! (2.92 Pts to be EXACT)

So far this is the nearest hit as I use either tops or bottoms to calculate the vector to and from.

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Those figures on the chart were posted in a previous blog post too – I just didn’t show the chart (above)

Think about this – My previous post on TRIANGLES – Are you able to fit Triangles into a Cubic structure? (YES you can) – what IS a cube made from?

6 Squares that’s correct – Now in a square what is the DIAGONAL as a ratio?  =1.414

So if you took the 2000-2002 crash value 1028 – as the SIDE of a square then times that by 1.414 you get the DIAGONAL of a square and that is the 2009-2016 rally

A value of 1.43 is so close to being 1,414 that you can say that the rally from 2002-2007 is also the DIAGONAL of the 2000-2002 crash – there’s FIBONACCI growth cycle in there too!

So from the Crash cycle date of 24th March 2000 – BOTH the rallies have grown by a Root 2 (1.414) pattern

Again do not expect exactness – leeway has to be used.

You can see that I was looking for links in price levels that represented certain ratio’s that are found in GEOMETRY – Gann mentioned geometry in his courses.

If you go back decades you’ll find vector ratios that conform to the mathematical ratios of PI, PHI, Square roots of 2,3 and 5 and MUSICAL ratios AND other Square Roots

The Vector 1473 above is obviously the musical 5th (3:2)of the 2007-09 crash vector value of 985 – so the Price advance from 2002-2007 = 3 and the Price crash from 2007-2009 = 2, divide 3 by 2 = 1.5

I will at some point during 2017 put the long range Time Cycles onto a chart to watch for as future years pass.

I wrote this post a few weeks ago and was going to publish it straight away, but decided to hold on until it was fairly clear the allowable time for Dec 2016 TC had expired – I would say that the TC came early in November and that (as we have seen) the Cycle now in play is the UP cycle as forecast years ago – The expected pullback came in as a whimpering sideways (but bearish) market rather than a price decline/plunge

Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the market is going straight upwards – it WON’T. – there should be (this year) a very decent correction to square out the price advance since 2009 – that correction can’t be assigned to the expected Dec 2016 TC as too much time has gone by now for the DEc TC to be relevant.

Price HAS to square itself out, as multiple TRIANGLES form and build the market upwards, sideways and downwards – REMEMBER the natural GROWTH of the market is upwards

I will publish this year the sub-cycles to watch to 2034 and I will publish some other cycles to watch – REMEMBER and this is very very important – The markets are not working out 2 Dimension movements, they are working out in 3/4 Dimensions, for that to be recorded onto a 2 Dimension price chart is IMPOSSIBLE UNLESS the movement of the markets are SQUARE ON to the chart (which is rare!) This is WHY you CAN’T just draw perfect squares and then project of that – it doesn’t work like that I’m afraid!  In the last chart all I’ve done is connected the high/low pivots which happen to make a square visually- that is NOT the square the market is making – the market crosses lots of squares that you can’t see.  You can then confirm with Mathematics when something has occurred.

 

Using both the market and Indicators to EXIT

Very quick post as to how I exit the market (depending upon the set-up I’m using) – this is a prime example of how having too tight a stop can cost you profits

You can obviously slacken the trailing bar exit strategy too – It needs to be tailed to the strategy you use and it should be relevant to entry/trade as well.

Hopefully food for thought

In the chart below both the RSI and DTosc will at some point reverse bearish – that does not mean that price will – ALWAYS remember that PRICE governs, Indicators can be useful in identifying cycle turns and Rhythms, but because those Rhythms are not static things can get out of sync.

Chart is FTSE100 Index

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Outlook Note: – This market is obviously toppy, BUT it is still BULLISH – Constant Rising swing low bottoms since February 2016

WEEKLY DTosc is now flatlining @ 100 = Well BULL OB

Triangles

It’s nothing new Gann was looking at these over 100 years ago on the Dow – he just never mentioned Triangles directly – Gann classed them as A’s, M’s W’s, MM’s, WW’s, WA’s and WM’s etc

Apologies for the spelling mistakes on the chart- I don’t fully proof read before I publish to a free blog.

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Longer term view confirms:

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Now go and get a chart of ANY market to prove to yourself that they are present on ALL time-frames

How you SEE the triangle depends upon it’s position in the journey it’s taking – it’s only when it’s square on to your line of vision [on the chart] that it looks like an A, twist the A Anti-Clockwise and it has a high low last leg to the A (see far left of the chart above – you’ve got a clockwise twisted A that produces a bearish market with a lower last leg of the A and Immediately following that you’ve got a bullish A as described prior)

This twisting nature of Time also EXPLAINS why when you try to measure in time High-High points or Low-Low points different days/time occur rather than a static cycle – Depending on which way Time is twisting will result in closer tops/bottoms or tops/bottoms further away from each other

A’s offer you great trading opportunities especially when they form after a correction

I plan to produce paid for content on this subject later into 2017 – any questions on this subject might be answered, they might not be as I don’t wish to reveal too much in the free blog post.

To understand this slightly better, try to visualise the price moves on the chart in 3 Dimensions – Look at it from the point of view as price action either moving towards you or away from you and you will SEE things differently

One final point – It’s hard to use these triangles to trade with all the time – notice that during up or down TRENDS you can’t see any triangles – the trick is knowing the patterns and what they mean.