Quick update to the Time Cycle due Dec 2016

Charts first and then commentary below them:

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In the USA charts above there IS a turn/low point in very early November 2016 – The FTSE100 is just visible!

The Time cycles that we’ve been waiting for COULD arrive that early – it is absolutely possible due to the size of the cycle BUT………a sideways trading market is not bullish and could constitute as the turn, however,

I’d be very very disappointed if that is the turn date though as it will have arrived with a little puff of air and not the expected decent plunge.

Notice how ALL the USA Weekly DTosc’s have just turned negative (Bearish) the Dow is maxed right out @ 100 and can’t sustain that forever, the UK FTSE100 is still bullish.

All the USA markets DAILY DTosc are Bearish – hence why markets were negative today – what we don’t know though is the extent of price on this bearishness.

If the market is going to turn it will do so with BOTH the Daily and Weekly DTosc’s being Bearish – this should happen this week – this again does not mean price will comply as IF price is going to move in sync with the larger time frame WEEKLY DTosc direction then it will do so either on the 1st or 2nd Daily DTosc bearish reversal, so we might have to wait for the 2nd turn!

If you’ve been watching my “Wedger” trade posts you’ll notice that I went LONG even when waiting for the possible decline – remember when you get a trade signal you trade it regardless of your opinions – we’ve NOT have a trade signal to the short side yet regardless of the time cycles arriving you NEED the market to confirm the decline and it’s NOT happened as of yet.

The NEW/UP Inflationary cycle has commenced though, as the December 6th 2016 date will be the point to project future cycles from.

There could be a valid reason in QE – if the markets fail to deliver the cycle decline we’re looking out for – If this cycle fails this time then it will be the 2nd time since 1792 – the last time was in 1860’s USA Civil war times when the government through in large amounts of money to rebuild (a bit like QE!).

Anyway regardless, there is nothing that can be done for a few weeks until the window/time zone for the cycle expires – this is the frustrating part of using cycles they don’t always come in bang on the day.

What I’m waiting to see is how the market reacts to the Bearish Weekly DTosc reversal – that should give some clues as to if the decline will be severe or poor

As I’ve always said you to “trade what you see, not what you think should/will happen”

Once again if the Nov 2016 low is the low – I’ll be really really shocked as that would be pathetic – we will know more as December passes

The key is to watch the weekly DTosc and the Daily bearish reversals – I wrote the bulk of this post this afternoon (UK time) and had to leave it to attend to something else – I notice the US markets closed down due to Yellen’s Interest rate hike.  The market have been high on expectation of QE since 2009, a rise in rates signals it all coming to an end right around the Time Cycle date, weekly and daily DTosc’s turning negative (bearish) the market is ripe to turn over – but that’s my call – it needs to be PROVED by price action

 

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