SP500 – The BIG picture

monthly-sp500-blog-post-1st-nov-2016

 

 

People ask why didn’t we have a 1929 style crash?

The answer is we did – the reason 1929 happened was due to Time cycles but it occurred on the market of favour at the time which happened to be the DJIA, the Dow fell approx 80% from its high in 1929.

Well in 2000 the market of the speculator was the Nasdaq

screen-shot-2014-03-26-at-10-10-22-am

Circa 80% crash! AND VERY, very similar in form to the DJIA 1929 – 1932 crash

What about the 2016 low?

There’s still 2 full months for it to register but its getting tight!

This time round the expectations from 2013 have not panned out great – for example May 2013 time cycles usually start a 3 year bear market this clearly has not happened in the US markets (they have in the UK FTSE100 though)

ftse100-weekly

I stated in a blog post a few years ago it’s highly doubtful that the 2009 low would be met or even exceeded and I’m fairly certain that will still be the case.

Facts are it is absolutely undeniable that since 2000 the cycle changed from up to down, the major turning points of 2003,2007 and 2009 can in bang on time 100% accurate, the next cycle is UP to 2032/34 (double top)

Remember it is impossible to know for certain in advance to what extent a time cycle will move price and it is impossible to predict price in advance with certainty.

The guy I learnt this off when he trades he establishes a position with a trailing stop – He did invest right at the 2009 low but he was out months later! If he knew for certain that from 2009 to 2015 the market would have tracked the 45 degree Gann angle then he would have stayed fully invested during that period and he didn’t he got stopped out in 2009!

 

 

 

 

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