I’m not the only one – although I most likely was the 1st!!!!!!!

I don’t subscribe to groups, magazines etc so I very rarely see anything like the below – it ended up in my inbox somehow (SPAM Mail)

Take a look at what’s just arrived in my inbox – its self explanatorycapture2

Now take a look at my blog post: https://thehovistrader.wordpress.com/2016/11/11/sp500-the-big-picture/

The one thing you should be SEEING is that a completely different authority has picked up on the unmistakable 100+ Bull (UP) / Bear (DOWN) Cycle pattern that exists!

Although they’ve not got the sequence right – its still visible!

I think my post called for the S&P500 to be Circa 30,000 points if the last 1400% (1982-2000) growth pattern played out

The EXACT section due to play out is the period from 1949 – 1966

Wedger Example – DOW

Here’s another Wedger example – this time in the Dow last week

Good return so far – barring a gap down over stop

wedger

FTSE100 Triangle/Wedge forming

Triangles (Wedges) are a combination of indecision and uncertainty – Even better when the wedge forms as part of a sequence of consecutive Inside days

ftse100-wedge

Nothing in Trading is 100% – what typically happens is when the high or the low of the last bar in the wedge is broken then that’s the direction its heading in – you can place stops either under the low or above the high of the last bar in the sequence (see chart for target values) or at the 50% point of the last bar as more often than not price just breaks cleanly away without retracing – this makes the targets on the chart twice as profitable!

Please note: due to limitations of my software Ex Ret 2 = 1 times risk, Ex Ret 3 = 2 times amount risked etc (which is the last bar on the chart)

Trade at your own risk – no responsibility accepted

 

Gann Angles 1 – S&P500

W.D. Gann used angles as the “basis to his analysis”

It’s no secret that Gann liked the CIRCLE, virtually everything he did was based around the Circle and the 360 degrees that fit inside the circle – Gann Angles are just another part of the circle – the angles from 0-90 degrees that fit onto a 2 Dimension chart – computer or paper the only option you have is using them within 90 degrees.

It would be worth you reading Ganns courses to understand how he put it all together.

gann-angles-sp500

I’ve not labelled the angles – the PINK lines are the 1 x 1 angle or in Gann’s parlance the 45 Degree angle.

From 2009 – 2015 it is obvious that PRICE has worked out to the 45 degree 1 x 1 angle

There is no way for certain to work out in advance whether price will follow which angle – price could follow the 8 x 1 up or the 2 x 1 – if price moves up 1000 pts and takes 1000 trading days/weeks or months then it has followed the 1 x 1 angle – you have no idea in advance whether it will or not – you can see though from the chart above that there is obviously something in it unless you’d not have that many hits.

Gann put an angle or combination of angles (as even he didn’t know which angle price would react too) on EVERY high and low, when they intersected/crossed Down/Up etc it often created support/resistance levels

Please note that the scaling on this chart is not 100% precise – I just use the angles as a gauge I don’t use them to trade/Invest from/with – I scaled the price by taking the extreme high and low and dividing by the time taken – this is good in HINDSIGHT but not for forecasting methods……

There is another way to use Gann angles I’ll make a note to do a post on part 2 sometime in 2017 – In the meantime watch out for my 2017 Market Forecast

SP500 – The BIG picture

monthly-sp500-blog-post-1st-nov-2016

 

 

People ask why didn’t we have a 1929 style crash?

The answer is we did – the reason 1929 happened was due to Time cycles but it occurred on the market of favour at the time which happened to be the DJIA, the Dow fell approx 80% from its high in 1929.

Well in 2000 the market of the speculator was the Nasdaq

screen-shot-2014-03-26-at-10-10-22-am

Circa 80% crash! AND VERY, very similar in form to the DJIA 1929 – 1932 crash

What about the 2016 low?

There’s still 2 full months for it to register but its getting tight!

This time round the expectations from 2013 have not panned out great – for example May 2013 time cycles usually start a 3 year bear market this clearly has not happened in the US markets (they have in the UK FTSE100 though)

ftse100-weekly

I stated in a blog post a few years ago it’s highly doubtful that the 2009 low would be met or even exceeded and I’m fairly certain that will still be the case.

Facts are it is absolutely undeniable that since 2000 the cycle changed from up to down, the major turning points of 2003,2007 and 2009 can in bang on time 100% accurate, the next cycle is UP to 2032/34 (double top)

Remember it is impossible to know for certain in advance to what extent a time cycle will move price and it is impossible to predict price in advance with certainty.

The guy I learnt this off when he trades he establishes a position with a trailing stop – He did invest right at the 2009 low but he was out months later! If he knew for certain that from 2009 to 2015 the market would have tracked the 45 degree Gann angle then he would have stayed fully invested during that period and he didn’t he got stopped out in 2009!

 

 

 

 

1 Month – JUST ONE Month to go

Countdown:

01 Months to go EXACTLY

until the current BEARISH Time Cycle ENDS and the next UP/Inflationary 17 Year Time Cycle

BEGINS

It’s very very very nearly over

4

You’ll also know that EVERYTHING predicted to occur during a Deflationary Depression has happened:

  • Low Interest Rates
  • Panic’s
  • Stock Markets crashing more than once and with +50% corrections/declines – these started in 2000, 2007-09 was the MID cycle (expected) crash – not the start of things! If you thought 2007 was the start of things you’re 7 years behind the curve.
  • QE
  • Failure of the great “experts” of the Industry and Central Banks to PREDICT events (always reacting to events, never preventing them!)
  • Commodity extremes and panics
  • Deflating prices
  • Gold appreciating in price and demand
  • Big/Larger than normal levels of Unemployment from….
  • Businesses failing
  • Commodity price falls
  • You get the idea

The great Deflationary Depression started in March 2000 and ends December 2016 – People will NOT believe its about to end until well past its rally off its lows

Remember I’ve ALREADY published some key dates for you to watch out for over the next 17 years – some of those dates WILL be KEY market turning points UP or Down

Now in the market cycle that MATCHED this market cycle that is coming to an end – when the cycle ended and the new cycle started – the KOREAN WAR started – I have not carried out any further investigations into this as its not an area of priority, the thing to consider is that World WARS occur during the DOWN cycles (1860’s, 1914 & 1939) – but to be honest nowadays conflicts and wars are happening regularly – I’ve not sat down to see if there’s a correlation of any kind.

Syria is obviously an are of conflict on a major scale that has been going on as has Iraq, Afghanistan during this down cycle so they could all be pooled together as a major major event on the war front – If something NEW happens though around the Dec 2016 Time Cycle date then it will be highly likely that the Time Cycle and wars are linked somehow, if something occurs I will look into in the years ahead.

There is a very key date regarding WARS – 2029 – There should be a very major in-depth war involving the USA that either Starts, Ends or is in motion when 2029 arrives.

Again the Time Cycle that tells me this can be plotted back in time and it hits at very major military points of time for the USA

All the best to the Deflationary Depression, glad to see the back of you!!

Get ready for the benefits and conditions that accompany an Inflationary UP Cycle