When will Bank Base Rate Rise?

I continually hear people from all over the place talking about Bank Base Rates.

You know they type of conversations “When do you think it will rise?”, “It’s been low for so long, don’t they [the bank] know what damage its doing to my income”…..etc

Well of course they are correct, low rates affect many people differently and they have been going on since 2008 now which is a long time.

Or is it?

If you’ve been with me for a while now, you will know I love Market Time Cycles.

Markets REPEAT and they do so with amazing regularity – once you know the Time Cycle and it’s formula, place it on a chart it just transforms your thinking.

I started investigating Time cycles in January 2012, it took me a good year to understand the basics, just in time for the 13 year Time cycle to be predicted a few weeks in advance, following on from that I’ve been re-reading and learning and its allowed me to produce the charts I’ve previously published in other blog posts.

Most recent its allowed me to predict the August 18th 2015 plunge and another cycle that may have already occurred or unfolding as we speak (only time will tell)

The market cycle currently playing out is directly linked to Great Depression time – If this is true then we need to see the general economic traits of the 1930/40’s playing out in 2000-2017.

  • Stock market crashes, flat over the period = TICK
  • Over supply of easy credit = TICK
  • Bank Runs / Closures = TICK
  • Then, credit availability severely reduces = TICK
  • Problems with Banks = TICK
  • Slashing of Bank Base Rates = TICK (see below)
  • Economic Contractions = TICK
  • Price DEFLATION = TICK
  • WAR = TICK
  • Rising Unemployment – Labour force issues = TICK

To name but a few of the conditions that are present now as they were in the Great Depression

Now what’s this about Bank Base Rates?

We know they’ve been ultra low in the 2000’s and since 2008 + the QE, here’s the stats for the Great Depression period 1929-1949 – UK Base Rates from the Bank of England:

  1. September 1929 Base Rate @ 6.5%
  2. Slashed to 2% over next 3 years
  3. In June 1932 remained @ 2% for, WAIT  for it, August 1939 = 7 yrs 2 mths!
  4. August 1939 doubled to 4%, then
  5. Fell back to 2% in October 1939, then – wait for it…..
  6. Remained @ 2% until November 1951! = 12 yrs 1 mth
  7. Then back to normality

As we can SEE from factual proof:

  1. The economic market of 1930-1950 is REPEATING again today (it should do due to the Time cycle!!!!)
  2. 7 years @ rock bottom Int Rates now is not as long as 19 years 3 mths in the 30’s/40’s – So in fact we’ve had it EASIER compared to then
  3. The Time Cycle turned UP in 1949 – hence the lag and return to normality in 1951 with rates

People will obviously mention the war – just remember rates had been stuck @ 2% for 7 years PRIOR

Now this does not mean that we will have 19 yrs of ultra low bank base rate – My thoughts are that Bank Base Rates will move very close to the UP Time Cycle start date (Dec 2016)  as Inflationary matters take hold in the build up to that date and beyond.

For me I SEE the Time Cycle 1st, then the economic coincidences and then out of the ordinary extremes last – such as Wars etc – they are all a CONDITION of the underlying Time Cycle revolving through our perception of TIME/LIFE.

If the Time Cycle was Irrelevant then they simply would not repeat with the SAME economic and Stock Market conditions as they do – with the amazing regularity that they do too.

 

 

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