What to EXPECT from the next 17 year UP (Inflationary) Cycle

On 6th December 2016, the current Deflationary DOWN cycle ENDS and it will be the dawn of a new Inflationary UP period [of 17 years].

This means that the generic trend of the USA and UK stock markets are highly likely to be to the UPSIDE

There WILL be an 1987 type event that “shocks” the world, but that should be quickly recovered from as was 1987 – see chart below for details and dates.

Now you need to look at the characteristics of PAST Inflationary/UP cycles – prior to 1982 they grew at around 30% per annum on AVERAGE over the course 17 years, then from 1982 that rate of growth increased to 80% average annual growth over the 17 years NOT compound growth!

The reason that the average rate of return increased was due to the fact that the growth pattern completed its course from 1897 and moved to a larger growth pattern that started in 1982 – for the duration of this century, this growth is likely to continue and it is why the swings of the markets have become that much greater in value and will continue to do so.

The next UP/Inflationary cycle is highly likely to show the following characteristics:

  • Similar 80% per annum growth on average over 17 years (or thereabouts) – NOT compound, just AVERAGE when you total the TOTAL % Growth and divide by 17/18 yrs (If you want more you’ll have to TRADE)
  • Credit re-Inflation = more lending and eventually back to the silly days of handing it out on a plate (just prior to the next major crash in the 2030’s)
  • Obviously there WILL be corrections along the way and some will be fairly significant, BUT unlike 200-2017, ALL these will be easily and quickly recovered
  • In March 2023 there is potentially a problem time for the markets as the 13 year cycle hits – previous post highlights the EXACT dates, look back through previous blog posts)
  • The overall trend WILL be UP
  • General GOOD economic health

I’m still sticking with the 13 yr cycle on this – May 2013 stopped the market in the UK and USA dead in its tracks for a while and caused a decent sell-off – the cycle worked as planned and the dates still apply

2026

acceleration point cycle – this cycle WILL force the market UPWARDS after a period of falling/stagnating prices in the build up to it – its another go long point, just wait to see:

2017-2034 cycle dates

You are looking for the dark GREEN cycle line October 2025 – this is a long term cycle so a few months “grace” have to be given, but it should be a low point leading to a very decent expansion of price growth up and into 2034 (top)

by TRADING you can generate 25%+ per annum, obviously that can be COMPOUNDED year after year,

by Investing (Buy and Hold) it’s more up to the markets, Inflationary UP periods return around 1400% over 16/17/18 years, this can be averaged out @ 80% per annum but it is NOT compounded, it is the total return which is much much less than compounded returns – it’s up to you as to how you wish to Invest

The whole point of this cycle analysis is to make you aware of the repetition in the markets, my next blog post is going to be on how you can beat the market by 2:1 by just being Invested half of the year (every year) which again is taking a position at the best times – this reduces risk compared to fully buying and holding for a year by half too.

Thanks for your support

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3 Comments

  1. Simon

     /  November 13, 2015

    Great post thanks! Do you have any opinion on what might happen leading up to dec 2016. Is the market likely to retrace or just track sideways?

    Regards

    Reply
    • Simon, thanks for the comment –
      The 17 year cycle “Typically” ends with a 3 year bear market – May 2013 saw the 13 year cycle hitting – it moved the UK market (in hindsight) more than the US markets but it arrived and caused a wobble, Ideally that cycle forcing the market down into Dec 2016 would of been perfect – the market refused to comply! So……
      August 18th 2015 saw another cycle hitting dead on to the day which is unusual for a 17 year cycle but nevertheless it hit causing a major hit, then the most recent cycle of October 2015 – the next couple of weeks should show its hand.
      to answer your question there’s no way of knowing for certain.
      Let me refer to my manual – this cycle (like all others) constantly REPEATS – Look at this: This cycle did the following – Sept 1899 forced the market DOWN, project the cycle forward in time it then hits in Feb 1933 it forces the markets UP, then May 1969 DOWN, then Oct 2002 UP
      These are ALL key turning points in the market – as I have the info to hand I will point out others – what we are doing is using the cycle and projecting it forward in time from MAJOR turning points – I’ve just shown you Point 1, here’s point 2:
      Projected from the major LOW of Nov 1903 = March 1937 – Market fell, then it failed, the exact same cycle point 3:
      LOW Nov 1907, it hit hit 10th May 1940 = market crashed as that was the EXACT day Hitler invaded France!, then it arrived Oct 1974 = LOW and then project the same cycle forward it arrived Oct 2007 and we all know what happened in 2007-09 don’t we! Next is Point 4: – this is what’s important right NOW
      Starting at the LOW of Dec 1914 = May 1947 = FLAT sideways period = June 1982 = LOW (started the greatest bull market rally EVER = Oct 2015???????
      The section of the market playing out right NOW is the sequence from 12/12/1914
      The simplest way to see what I’ve said is get a chart (if you can) and market of the dates of Point 1, then do the following points.
      At some point I will publish a post with the next sequence of dates 30 odd years into the future – I can tell you for certain the next section will start in 2034 – 2051 and the dates will help identify key turning points in that section
      Why? Because these cycles are best seen during the DOWN 17 year periods as the markets crash and trend sideways and the NEXT section after 2017 is 2034-2015ish – you CAN segment the bullish phases in between but it’s the same cycle but a different calculation of the cycle.
      Now, I’ve still NOT fully answered your question! Let me do so right now:
      The markets REPEAT with outstanding clarity (not exactly move for move but good enough) EVERY 67 years – this is because of the effects of all the various Time Cycles playing out in time, knocking 67 years from 2015 = 1948 – the UP section in the 40’s/50’s started in 1949, we are 1 year away from the next UP section of the market in 2016 – so the period 1947-1949 WAS flat and sideways the Time cycle that hit in 1947 IS the exact same one that hit in Oct 2015 but it did very little to the markets.
      If you get a graph of the DJIA of the 30’s, 40’s and compare the general pattern of that chart to the NASDAQ from 2000- present they look very very similar – my opinion is that from May 2013 to Dec 2016 is to expect it to be choppy/flat at best and brutal swings at worst – with the end game a LOW point in the market (it should not exceed the low of 2009 at all in Dec 2016.
      Regarding Dec 2016 Cycle – don’t fall into the trap of looking for a MAJOR LOW point in the market – it does not have to do that, it may be the case as was in 1949 (because that is WHEN the cycle arrived back then) that in 1949 the market then started the bullish phase all the way up to and into 1966, but when you look back on a chart @ 1949 you can clearly say that was the turning point from bearish to bullish, albeit you would of had to wait a few years to clearly see it – the same could happen in Dec 2016.
      does it matter if you miss Dec 2016? Nope, there’ll be plenty of opportunities all the way up to 2034 to make a fortune
      Hope it helps – apologies for the length, I feel it’s important to explain things as thoroughly as able to as its a complex subject
      THT

      Reply
      • Simon

         /  November 14, 2015

        Thankyou very much for the very informative response. Exciting times ahead! One of my mentors Phil Anderson is also very bullish on the near future, bar an expected crash in 2025/2026 marking the end of the current 18.7 (on average) real estate cycle. Looking forward to your next post. Cheers

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