Market Higher for December 2015?

Every man and his dog is looking for some sort of mega crash.

Will it happen?

I don’t think so, a few key tells for me occurred on Friday last week

Capture

Take the Nasdaq 100 Index above – doesn’t really matter which Index you refer to.

My DAILY 5 period Moving Average of the StochRSI (8) signals a high – this indicator is often wrong on highs!

My WEEKLY 5 period Moving Average of the StochRSI (8) signals a flat or down period (Chart NOT shown)

*Edit – IF the market is on a real downer as signalled by the StochRSI Indicator then this is classed as a BEARISH reversal [the position of the Weekly and Daily Indicator positions] PRICE should hammer downwards – if it doesn’t then that signals the StochRSI is wrong

However,

Capture1

Total Put/Call Ratios have been +1 for a number of days

Equity Only Put/Call Ratio has just exceeded 0.75

These readings often signal a period of bullishness in the days/weeks after

Capture2

Sentiment readings are “NORMAL”

We’ve entered into the seasonally bullish period of Thanksgiving to the first few days of January

Most importantly PRICE ACTION has been going UP as can be seen from the chart above.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if we see some form of little pull back and then a continuation of Bullish prices – when the bears are banging and buy tonnes of puts they’re often proved wrong.

Time Cycles – 18th August plunged the market right on cue, The Time cycle expected October could of already printed its name on the August low! Which would sit comfortable on a Bullish December 2015.

Obviously this is all best guessing – let the market tell you it’s movements

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How to DOUBLE your return with half the risk

This post is for the Investors amongst you rather than the traders, although it is something that you should ALL be aware of regardless of your stance.

If you have or plan to obtain a Stock Market Almanac – this strategy is in there and has been for a number of years!

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When will Bank Base Rate Rise?

I continually hear people from all over the place talking about Bank Base Rates.

You know they type of conversations “When do you think it will rise?”, “It’s been low for so long, don’t they [the bank] know what damage its doing to my income”…..etc

Well of course they are correct, low rates affect many people differently and they have been going on since 2008 now which is a long time.

Or is it?

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What to EXPECT from the next 17 year UP (Inflationary) Cycle

On 6th December 2016, the current Deflationary DOWN cycle ENDS and it will be the dawn of a new Inflationary UP period [of 17 years].

This means that the generic trend of the USA and UK stock markets are highly likely to be to the UPSIDE

There WILL be an 1987 type event that “shocks” the world, but that should be quickly recovered from as was 1987 – see chart below for details and dates.

Now you need to look at the characteristics of PAST Inflationary/UP cycles – prior to 1982 they grew at around 30% per annum on AVERAGE over the course 17 years, then from 1982 that rate of growth increased to 80% average annual growth over the 17 years NOT compound growth!

The reason that the average rate of return increased was due to the fact that the growth pattern completed its course from 1897 and moved to a larger growth pattern that started in 1982 – for the duration of this century, this growth is likely to continue and it is why the swings of the markets have become that much greater in value and will continue to do so.

The next UP/Inflationary cycle is highly likely to show the following characteristics:

  • Similar 80% per annum growth on average over 17 years (or thereabouts) – NOT compound, just AVERAGE when you total the TOTAL % Growth and divide by 17/18 yrs (If you want more you’ll have to TRADE)
  • Credit re-Inflation = more lending and eventually back to the silly days of handing it out on a plate (just prior to the next major crash in the 2030’s)
  • Obviously there WILL be corrections along the way and some will be fairly significant, BUT unlike 200-2017, ALL these will be easily and quickly recovered
  • In March 2023 there is potentially a problem time for the markets as the 13 year cycle hits – previous post highlights the EXACT dates, look back through previous blog posts)
  • The overall trend WILL be UP
  • General GOOD economic health

I’m still sticking with the 13 yr cycle on this – May 2013 stopped the market in the UK and USA dead in its tracks for a while and caused a decent sell-off – the cycle worked as planned and the dates still apply

2026

acceleration point cycle – this cycle WILL force the market UPWARDS after a period of falling/stagnating prices in the build up to it – its another go long point, just wait to see:

2017-2034 cycle dates

You are looking for the dark GREEN cycle line October 2025 – this is a long term cycle so a few months “grace” have to be given, but it should be a low point leading to a very decent expansion of price growth up and into 2034 (top)

by TRADING you can generate 25%+ per annum, obviously that can be COMPOUNDED year after year,

by Investing (Buy and Hold) it’s more up to the markets, Inflationary UP periods return around 1400% over 16/17/18 years, this can be averaged out @ 80% per annum but it is NOT compounded, it is the total return which is much much less than compounded returns – it’s up to you as to how you wish to Invest

The whole point of this cycle analysis is to make you aware of the repetition in the markets, my next blog post is going to be on how you can beat the market by 2:1 by just being Invested half of the year (every year) which again is taking a position at the best times – this reduces risk compared to fully buying and holding for a year by half too.

Thanks for your support