Update – December 2014

Hi All,

Over the past few years I’ve posted lots for little interaction so in 2014 decided to pursue a few other ideas and take a well earned break from the blog.

I made a call (well before the event) that you needed to be very very careful from May 2013 to December 2016 – the UK FTSE100 has basically traded sideways throughout that time, with a few ups and downs forming a trading range and as I write this post markets around the world are falling fairly sharply and fast.

How long will it last and how far will it go?  No-one can tell you that, timing the markets with precision on the short-term is Impossible – believe me, I’ve spent years researching! Nothing works 100%

I’ll not be writing too many more blog posts this side of December 2016 – that’s 2 years from now!

The only thing I will say and it is on the W.D. Gann page of the blog is that I predicted a turning point for May (to the day!) 2013.  that was when the 2009 up cycle ended and turned negative, so we had a 4 year up cycle from the 2009 bottom.

The overall cycle in force from 2000 is still negative, it does not turn up until December 2016, that is why the markets have been yo-yoing all over the place since 2000 and developing a rather large trading range.

I’m heavily cautious of establishing new positions during this time, but if the markets fell 25% that would probably represent a great buying opportunity for some quick profits – I have no idea whether it will fall that much at all.

The other thing you need to watch during 2015 is (as I’ve been saying for some years now) DEFLATION – with Oil dropping like a stone it could be the catalyst that creates a period of Deflation in terms of pricing – Deflation has been present in its true sense for the past 2 decades but everyone thinks Deflation is negative price inflation.

The one positive on the horizon is as Gann stated the 5th years of the decade are typically positive in terms of returns so we could see a positive year ahead.

Have a great Christmas and New Year and all the best for 2015

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