Weekly Time & Price analysis – W/C 7th April 2014

Hi All,

This week we come back to the mighty S&P500, I’ll provide a update to what to look for going forward in this post too.  But first let’s look at last weeks Call for the EURUSD.

We were looking for a LOW, in fact the time zone runs to the 18th April 2014 for a LOW point – so we are still within that zone in both Time and Price.

Right the S&P500, lets review the Price and Time zones and then look at the market itself from a technical point of view

Swing File Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price

Projecting the END of the UPSWING on the WEEKLY EURUSD – in the zone now

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price

DAILY Analysis = looking for the LOW of this swing DOWN, again in the ZONE!

Fibonacci Analysis

Weekly EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

Daily EURUSD - Time & Price FIB

DAILY Analysis = Fib counts/analysis says Tuesday 22nd April has the highest number of hits – wait and see.

What to look for going forward – update:

S&P500

WTLFGF1

Look at the chart above, to be honest the critical information is shown on the chart, my words here are just to explain the detail in plain English so that my thoughts are clear.

The PINK horizontal line = a current SUPPORT shelf, If and how long it hold I have no idea (neither does anybody else)

ALL the moving averages are in Bullish mode, pointing up and separated nicely = UPTREND

The PINK moving average gives the impression that price found support at that level – it did, but the support occurred at the PRICE level NOT the moving average – think, on the days of support the moving average was one bar back, PRICE drags the moving averages along, the moving averages do NOT drag price – this is a classic ILLUSION to which people will say “Look, price found support at the MA level” It’s not true, it just happens that the MA met with price at those levels – why did the MA FAIL to support price in June 2013, August 2013, October 2013, Dec 2013?  BECAUSE price found support and the MA was not priced near enough to create the Illusion AND even if it were true that moving averages provide support NO-ONE can tell you in advance WHY or WHEN it will next happen, so there value is pretty limited in my book – BUT they [Moving Averages] are good at helping you see and identify the trend direction, although you could just get a line draw it on the chart and determine if it;s heading sideways, down or up and that would be just as good.

In Fact I will do a series on Trend Identification in the coming weeks

The Thick BLACK horizontal line is CRITICAL SUPPORT – If that level is broken – POTENTIALLY – the trend could have changed from UP to DOWN, BUT, that is not for certain – IF that happens it will be the biggest correction for a number of months – W.D. Gann said that when the size and time of a correction exceeds those of the past corrections in the trend watch out for a trend reversal – that’s exactly what we will do – KEEP WATCH.

You can see from careful study of the DAILY chart that Gann’s quote so far has FAILED – so far the largest corrections in Time and Price have FAILED to be reversal points!  Another “Market FACT” that in fact is a MYTH!  At some point Gann’s quote will come true, but I wonder after how many FAILURE POINTS!  (I reckon about 80% of what you learn about the markets is a load of crap – Elliott Wave and Gann included) But I also say that PARTS of Gann and Elliott Wave are genius and workable.

We now need to look at this S&P500 market in a different context – a higher time-frame chart to see the bigger picture – detail on the chart should be self-explanatory

WTLFGF2

Once those KEY support levels start to be taken out all you can do is watch to see where the market will find support – no-one knows where it will find support, people will try to guess such as 61.8% fib level of X-X, or 50% (not even a FIB level!) of X-X – but they never tell you EXACTLY which levels will provide the resistance or which high and low to work off, that’s because they DON’T KNOW, it;s all ifs and buts in the markets – at least I’m honest about it!

For me the crucial support levels are the ones I’m watching anything up to them is just market noise and a standard potential correction in progress.

Just remember that NO-ONE, me included knows exactly where and when this market will top or bottom out – If you throw enough guesses at the thing eventually you’ll get it right! BEWARE of predictions.

Oh and another point, people keep bleating on about QE1 turning the market in 2009 – QE1 was an accounting trick – no real money entered the markets! So how that managed to pump the market higher I’ll never know, if markets can rise on fresh air all we need is a giant fan aimed at the markets with a hint of QE rumour and they should propel ever more higher.

What to Look for going forward the next part will be posted in a month or so time – until that uptrend changes to do guess what the trend direction is?  Up that’s right

Hope it helps.

 

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1 Comment

  1. Forgot to mention – LAST bar on the S&P500 Daily chart = potential Key Day Reversal bar – these are often associated with KEY turning points in the market – although not, I repeat NOT guaranteed.
    But following my predictions if this does turn the markets it’s happening right at the 11th hour

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