Update on Time Cycles

I’m writing this post early Thursday 3rd April 2014, I’m writing it assuming that the March 29th 2014 market cycle I’ve previously talked about has FAILED/NOT WORKED – If over the next 2 days the markets commence a multi-month sell-off then I’ll have to revise this post with the data

We will still have to watch Thursdays and Fridays market action but if the market continues UP then we have to take it on the chin and assume that the cycle has had no effect on the market. (I’m looking at the S&P500 Index).

If you’re like me these Time Cycles are not essential to how you trade, they are there in a what if scenario, something to be aware of and act on if it becomes obvious a turning point is upon you etc.

For me that’s pretty much it now for the rest of the year on cycles, there’s a couple of minor ones during the summer and another expectation on something different from summer – October time.  I’ll not mention them here, I think I have mentioned them in other blog posts but they are minor and I’m not basing too much on it.  Students know about the October cycle.

Did I trade the March 29th Cycle?  Nope.

I’m truly hoping that if you’ve been following my cycle analysis you’ve picked up on something – it CANNOT be relied on to tell you every twist and turn of the market – that I’m afraid is impossible – anyone thinking “Well Elliott Wave can tell me that” – no it can’t, if it could they’d be no need for alternative counts, EW is good, but it is not precise and never will be.  As I’ve mentioned many times before it;s probably the best thing out there for labelling waves correctly in hindsight, but even as we speak the EW experts have recently had to alter their wave counts to suit market conditions!

Let me be real clear on this, NOTHING and I mean NOTHING works precisely in the trading world.

Looking forward:

Well first let’s look backwards – the 2000, 2002, 2007 & 2009 market cycles came in bang on time.  The 2013 cycle sort of worked but so far the chart (S&P500) says it didn’t, that MIGHT change when we have much more price data available on the charts.  Referring to the May 2013 Time Cycle a 7.5% drop was not enough for my liking to confirm the cycle – it MUST make a print on a MONTHLY chart that is noticable and May 2013 was not – If you view the same date on the FTSE100 Index then you can see the effect it’s having on the FTSE100 Index ( sideways trading range for nearly 12 months!)

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As you know the above Time Cycle was due between May 20th-28th 2013 and it came bang in to the day, I was hoping this effect occurred on the S&P500 chart rather than the FTSE100 but I trade both so no problems for me, but those in the USA that just focus on the S&P500 it is a problem as that market has continued to RISE.

Moving on, the next set of dates are in mid 2015 and then end of 2016.  the most important of those being the 2016 date.

If I threw enough time cycles on the chart one would hit, to me that’s not accurate, I want virtual exactness, the 2016 date should be a LOW and it should be pretty accurate, however, the 2017 date could also impede the 2016 date a little – either way 2016-17 should be a LOW point in the market.

This cycle has been pretty much spot on for over 200 years

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I’ve coloured the 2016 date RED – for me this signifies something and makes the date stand out.

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There is no way to know how or If a Time cycle will act or comply with a possible date until it happens, this means you have to have a suitable way to trade whatever happens.

My outlook for the year 2014 still remains up into the general March area and then either sideways or down into October and then up around October time for the year end.

My outlook from now until 2016 is still sideways (preferred outlook) or outright bearish.

BUT whatever actually happens I’ll be trading as per my rules of trading, not based on hope or assumptions.

 

 

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