What to look for going forward – part 2

OK – I’ll keep this short and brief as I have a huge amount of things to sort through, once you start something on these blogs you have to see it through.

You should recognise the chart below from the beginning of the month, the only thing that has changed is price action has been added – HOW did I know the bottom was in? Students will instantly see it’s a THT Cyclist set-up! That MADE money, anyway,

that is NOW topping out – if you are still long you really need to tighten your stops on the trade.

What is going to happen next? The patterns on the chart are still applicable and valid and it is STILL not clear at this stage.

I’m quite open for price to make new highs, so the pattern to watch there is for a pull back towards the swing low marked a

from which it finds support and then bounces to new recent highs.  ALWAYS, ALWAYS remember the MARCH 2014 Time Cycles – they are relevant, the market has worked these cycles out in the past, there is no reason why they won’t do it again!

Don’t get hung up on retracement levels – they don’t really matter!

Now, what if a double top has just been printed? Then this is it and you need to concentrate on the short side – I don’t think I’ve talked out loud about my expectation to the public for the short side exactly – my preference is for a fast decline – not like 2008, more like the drops of 2011 – fast, to support and over.  It will probably have been and gone by the time I get to document it properly.

At this precise time (could be invalidated by price action next week) we have a LOWER high swing point formed, we need 2 to confirm a potential change in trend – that is a few weeks off from forming

The swing low at a now has the potential to provide a false break (price exceeds the low @ point a and then bounces back upwards) It depends on what is unfolding in the market – The main point is if the swing low at point a is broken it then provides us with another reference point and we’ll be able to assess at that point.

So currently it’s not 100% clear what will happen – still the same as last time – there is a perfectly viable Elliott Wave ABC correction type event still viable (If it’s forming the B swing with this recent rally up)

My advice is sit tight and watch

Feb 2014 Blog

Do not ignore those Time Cycles – the most recent publication on them shows in January 2014 one of them arrived, that cycle is present at all major turning points of relevance – something fairly major will happen in the months that follow it.

Remember that George Soros has double up his short position on the S&P500 to 10% of his fund!  These people don’t do that out of hope.

All the best

THT

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