Now is the Time to beware

Permission is granted to share this post as long as you acknowledge me as the source.

I’m not into scare mongering, when a major buying opportunity appears I will advise accordingly, but first, along with the other Time Cycle posts I’ve made you need to be aware of this one.  If you were climbing stairs towards a fire I’m sure you’d want people who could see the smoke to at least let you know the possible/potential dangers ahead – It’s then up to you as to what you decide to do.

My assumption is that since 2000 we’ve been in a BEARISH Deflationary Depression – the charts back this up and confirm it as well as other key Time Cycles confirming these assumptions.  The Bearish cycle is not over, so I’m afraid until that happens caution has to be adhered to and I’m afraid that comes in the form of highlighting potential major tops that could trigger a hefty fall – during the BULLISH phase of the cycles these falls are small compared to the falls during the bearish phase – hence the warnings.

These assumptions are not some whim, they’re based on researching over 200 years of market history and pulling out the common factors – who else do you know that’s done that?  I bet most people don’t look back further than a few years and I’m probably being generous with that assumption.

I’m on record as stating that if you still have money invested in the 2030’s, you will have to be prepared for very rough waters in the mid to late 2030’s – very similar to price action you’ve witnessed during the past 14 years (since 2000)

Why the Warning?

This Time cycle has been present at major TOPS and turning points in the markets – It arrived 18th January 2014 – take a peek at the daily charts to see its effect – just like the May 2013 Time Cycle virtually to the day!  this particular Time Cycle is not known for it’s accuracy to the day so the January 2014 plunge might be a coincidence or it might have been caused by this cycle – we’ll never know for certain, anyway this cycle is present in the months surrounding a major high – this is an official warning, I can only guess at the fall/correction that will follow, but a decent correction should occur.

This cycle is not spot on accurate, we need to watch the next few months before calling this cycle over – this cycle is ALWAYS present at major turning points and it’s hit a cycle date in January 2014, of which the recent fall has NOT been sufficient enough for this cycle.

This cycle will be NEW to you ALL, but students – there is another cycle due this year that represents a very good buying opportunity, my expectation is that this cycle and the March cycle will drag down prices into that buying opportunity cycle – of course I don’t know for sure that will happen, it’s my best guess, the FACTS are

  • This cycle is always present at key turning points in the market
  • The chart below shows it’s hit 100% of the time over 5 occurrences covering 20 years
  • If I go back further in time I can find the same hit rate!

This is from my recommended Gann course provider – part of it is my own work, but the concept came from the course provider.

Take 2 mins to think about this:  Here’s a Time cycle that is about 6-8 years in length and it signals key turning points in the markets with an 100% hit rate, albeit it could be off by a few months!  This time cycle is best used as a pre-cursor of a major correction, not an accurate timing Time Cycle as with other Time Cycles, also,

If you review the chart below, you will notice 1 thing for definite, this Time Cycle PREDICTS major stock market falls in advance, those stock market falls also FORCE governments to declare an official RECESSION, therefore this Time Cycle also predicts economic recessions – EVERYTHING is LINKED – I don’t care what you’ve been told by economists and governments, I’m showing you it is all linked – in free random markets that can’t happen, but it does, therefore if you are in BUSINESS you can forecast recessions, the smart people will act to protect themselves during those times.

We also have a massive TRIPLE TOP chart formation formed on the FTSE100 Monthly chart – REGARDLESS of the Bullish bias over the past few years, nice economic data and the like – that chart pattern shouts WARNING, just on the pattern alone, throw in the Time Cycles and you have a fairly potent warning signal to be very cautious/wary over the months ahead.

Now for the positive – there WILL be one or two, maybe three absolutely fantastic BUYING opportunities in the months and years to come – I will advise accordingly as and when they crop up so make sure you’re subscribed for free via the email subscription to this blog. – I can see 2 potential chances on that chart below, but we need much more price action (years) for this to become valid – each one of those buying opportunities at present has 50% profit appreciation gains written on it for a buy and hold investment which is not too bad for buying at the right time and doing nothing. – obviously this is dependent upon future price action and until that unfolds I might just be getting exciting for no reason at all.

I’m sure you can see the value in knowing when these cycles are due:

Time cycle

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4 Comments

  1. K.C.Trade & Industries

     /  February 21, 2014

    sir i m short nymex crude & loosing huge money. do u see any possibility crude going down thx

    Sent from Samsung Mobile

    The HOVIS Trader wrote:

    Reply
    • I’m afraid Crude is not a market I look at – I can’t get reliable data to export to my charting package and for the ones that I can, I can’t trade on my trading platform! So I just don’t look at Crude at all – I’ve had a quick look at a chart – Brent Crude – on the weekly charts it looks stuck in a range, however, it’s currently coiling – at some stage these coils spring open and a large move happens – it’s unclear which way that will be I’m afraid – If the markets crash I’d expect this to go with them as happened in 2008 – but it could quite possibly rise in the meantime! When you take a trade position you should know exactly why you’re taking that position, you should also know at what point and the parameters that your decision is wrong – that’s where a stop should be. The short-term directional bias is Confused to Bullish, the Weekly is confused – Crude could go either way

      Reply
  2. I’ve had a private email asking when I became aware of this and when could I have placed this on my charts.
    1) I only became aware of this Timing a few years ago and these cycles went on my charts the other year – I have my personal charts, a small proportion of which I share on this blog.
    2) decades ago

    Reply
  1. You were Warned well inadvance | The HOVIS Trader

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