Outlook for the year 2014

The outlook now for 2014 is now DOWN or FLAT.

Solely based on the fact of how January 2014 ended (DOWN on the month).

Based on historic stock market facts, the odds now significantly favour the S&P500 to finish either down or Flat on the year.

This allows one to build in anticipation into your thinking during the year, please be fully aware that this is not a certainty – it’s only a strong possibility.  To obtain statistics, averages etc you have to have positive and negative results, the final stat is drawn from the whole, this means that every now and again the results will not run according to the out projected from the stats.

Why am I looking for 2014 to be down or flat?

  • We are in a Deflationary Depression, since 2000 and confirmed for a fact from 2006 onwards
  • 5 year bull markets within a Deflationary Depression are rare beasts – we’ve now had 2 of them
  • Any such Bull markets have NEVER, NEVER lasted 6 years or more
  • The outlook to the next major Time Cycle turning date (2017) typically suits a 3 year bear/flat market – my preference as mentioned months ago is a flat trading range to develop

That does not mean I’m short the market, it means I’m highly prepared for the market to fall, follow the trend and trade in the direction of the trend – you get caught up in making predictions and falling in love with those predictions can get you hammered in the markets

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