Jan 2014 – Is this the TOP?

There’s loads of people calling the top, whether it is happening right now I don’t know for sure.

The recent price action is one of 2 things – a correction of some degree (large, medium or small) or a reversal.

I need to refer to my Time Cycle dates of March 2014 – they do not signal a top or bottom, all these Time Cycles do is give you an idea of possible turning dates.  so it is perfectly possible for price to fall in March, to fall now until March and then reverse or completely ignore the date – you then have to build a trading system that takes all that into account – obviously you need a signal to trigger a trade, that’s part of your trading rules.  the earliest date to be wary of are the weeks either side of 7th March 2014.

So far for me a high occurred in December 2013, a correction of some sort seems to be unfolding but nothing concrete.  I know you can create an Elliott Wave 5 waves up to the high, this may or may not be the 5th wave – only time will truly tell.

Too many people are on the “It’s a top bandwagon” for my liking, traditionally the week of 27th January is one of the stronger weeks of the year, so I’m personally looking to buy a Binary bet on the week to close UP, should the binary fall to the right price (25-33) for me and I’m also looking to establish a lot of long positions should they trigger from my set-ups, so as you can see I’m not particularly bearish (yet).

Here’s what I’m looking for:

  • Price to resume to new highs
  • Price to take out the LOW of December 2013 – that is the 1st true signal that this might be more than just a correction, BUT
  • It could just be a simple ABC correction, any at the point that the swing low referred to is breached I’ll be fully alert that this could now be more than just a simple correction – although at that point it’s highly likely that the simple correction will still be a possibility
  • The only thing to do is watch price action as it unfolds – can you see these options, why it’s nearly impossible to accurately call tops and bottoms, with trading you cannot be wishy washy, you have to make a call, go with it and if correct it will make you money if you’re wrong it loses you hard, real money.
  • For me the June 2013 LOW is the clear tell tale point that the trend has probably changed – there’s a huge number of points between today’s price and that level, so for the time being I’m just observing.

Jan blog post1

Jan blog post2

Jan blog post3

I’ll update this post as time progresses, more than likely by producing a new post detailing my updated thoughts.

I am fully aware that the official Elliott Wave count is screaming a 5th wave top, and they’ve issued an emergency alert to that fact, we’ll know for sure in a few months time.

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1 Comment

  1. OK – The swing low discussed in Chart one has been breached – Time to sit up and start listening to the market. My main preference is for this just to be a correction, but it could be the start of something bigger – I’m afraid only time will tell.
    So far Price action is within the Price and Time zones for a standard normal correction – Indicators will now be maxing out as oversold too, signalling a potential buying opportunity.
    I currently have a number of US stocks in my portfolio that are holding up rather well (so far), I’m also seeing the normal number of buying opportunities that I typically see throughout the week, so I’m staying bullish until proven wrong

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