Further Time Cycles for 2014

Hi All,

Hope you all have had a decent Christmas – I was trading (as usual!) on a few of the days, trouble is once you start this lark you have to take every signal whether it’s Christmas time or your Birthday or on holiday – obviously it depends upon what set-up you’re trading – I’ve a couple of methods that fire off about 30 times a year so it’s not that frequent and sometimes the gaps in between can be a couple of months so you have to react to them when they fire off, just in case you miss a decent mover!

Anyway – TIME CYCLES for 2014.

I hope you’ve read my previous post regarding the 5 & 7 year cycles due – If not go back, find and read it before reading this one as it will add more detail for you. – just search for a blog post titled 5 & 7 year cycles – it’s the only one for now.

There’s more time cycles due this year, I can’t give too much away as it’s contained within my recommended W.D. Gann course.

These new Time Cycles are dynamic, not static, but they nest nicely with the static Time Cycles I’ve already mentioned in the previous post on 5 & 7 year cycles.

I do apologise but the cycles are very close, I should of carried out this work during the summer of 2013 but I forgot.

Caveat first! – These Time Cycles have been used by calculating a unique Timing device, they are not guaranteed and with Timing it really depends whether the analyst has got the start dates correct, if I haven’t then all the dates will be wrong.  I’ve done my best to try to make sure I’ve used accurate dates but if the market has decided to shift then I won’t know until well after the fact.  As usual I just use these to base assumptions from.

Chart one:

2014-2017 TC 1

Okay chart one is a very long-term view of the S&P500 index, with numerous Time Cycles displayed, most of these Time Cycles have a starting date of 24th March 2000 high, apart from the GREEN line which has a starting date of 12/12/1914 – yes you read that correct 12th December 1914 – it was the day the Dow Jones re-opened at the low following the outbreak of World War I

Take a step back and just think how a 100 year Time Cycle can show up – this particular Time Cycle has previous form – it is related to the 1982 low, also projected from the 12/12/1914

Chart two:

2014-2017 TC 2

This is a zoomed in view of the Time Cycles with some commentary on the charts.

Here’s my outlook on what I’m looking for:

  • One of the cycles in 2014 or the cycles shown on a previous blog post for 2014 to turn the market to some degree
  • The Red line is the terminal date of the current major market Time Cycle we are in, this is where the next cycle may start from as well
  • The Green line backs up the Red Time cycle thinking – this provides me with a bit more confidence in my thinking (still does not mean it will work though!)
  • The Grey line arriving AFTER the Red line could be a warning, it might force the market to make a double bottom of some form – It has in the past when it arrives after the main cycle turning point so it has every chance of doing so again this time round.
  • At some point up to 2016 if the market is following form, there should be a 3 year bear/flat cycle – having the 2014 timing dates provides points to watch
  • I had thought the cycle arriving in May 2013 might have forced the 3 year bear market, the cycle arrived bang on but the follow through by the market was poor and failed, all we had was a 5 month long trading range, which is bearish but, you know….
  • The thing to do is be aware of these cycles and just observe – 2002, 2007 and 2009 have been virtually spot on time wise, we need to have faith that the remaining cycles will also prove accurate.

This is likely to be the last post on Time Cycles until 2017, at which point once we have seen a definite cycle point I’ll be able to project the next lot of key dates for the 2020’s.

As mentioned the key is locating the cycle start point, which happens through simple trial and error projections.

Once again I did not find or discover these cycles myself, these techniques are from my recommended Gann course.

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