Further Price Analysis – End Jan 2014

Hi,

It’s Wednesday 29th January 2014, thought I’d update you with my analysis of what’s going on.

I’ve not updated todays price action on to the charts, as you’ll see it’s not really that critical.

As you can see from this chart it is a WEEKLY S&P500 chart – If we focus on the swings made from the low in March 2009 to present we have Price and Time target zones shown:

1

These are assuming the fact that it’s just a correction occurring, if something bigger is happening then we need to look at the last 2 bear markets of 2000 and 2008 to run our analysis from – will do if it comes to that.  But for now I’m assuming this is a normal correction within a Bull market (It will peak at some point).

You will notice these prices and time vary from the Daily chart a bit – that’s because the swings on the Weekly chart are often greater and last longer than those on the daily charts.

The key level (not highlighted) on the Weekly chart is the June 2013 LOW (previously mentioned)

I will be starting a series of post using this analysis, I’m easily distracted, so if this is something you really would like to see and receive then shout if I fail to post it for a while – I will try to post analysis for S&P500, Gold and the EURUSD pair, showing Monthly, Weekly & Daily Price and Time zones.

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W/C 27th January = 7th Strongest week of the year

According to the statistics of all the years for the FTSE100 (Since 1984) this week is the 7th strongest.

Therefore I have purchased with 1R risk a FTSE100 Binary bet for less than 20 points due to the large losses the FTSE100 index has been having the past few days – all the FTSE100 has to do is finish above 6663.74 for this bet to finish @ 100 points – this equals a 4R return potential on the risk so in my book a risk worth taking, even though it’s looking a big ask!  you never know though.

We’ll have to see how the week progresses, compared to previous days the S&P500 didn’t fare too badly today, after hours it’s not down too much, we’ll just have to keep an eye on the market.

Anyway, for now I can forget about it and watch it Friday a lot more closely.

The next date to keep an eye on is (FTSE100): Monday 17th February to close UP

The next week to keep an eye on is (FTSE100): W/c 17th March 2014 to close DOWN

These trades can be found in the Stock Market Almanac (UK version)

Yep this is a risky trade, but my thinking is if I can trade 10 times this year with 50% success @ 4R = a net profit of +15R

Probably The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read This Year

Here’s your chance to read an exclusive Elliott Wave International report – I keep banging on about how good their research and analysis is – well this is your chance to see for yourself.  They’re releasing parts of the report every day for a week, once you’ve signed up for FREE, they’ll make sure you get the reports.

As usual ignore any reference to wave counts, they look good and work after the fact, what we are looking for here is the factual analysis on the state of the economy and it’s potential effects – this kind of analysis, as I’ve mentioned before, just does not get published by the mainstream media and when your money is at stake it’s important to have the facts to then make Investment decisions from

I personally swear by EWI’s Independent research , it helps me to see the bigger picture that you can’t see from the mainstream media

Enjoy

THT

 
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  • Global stocks have set record highs, yet sentiment readings have hit off-the-charts extremes.
  • Gold, silver and bonds are in multi-year bear markets.
  • Investors in major markets around the world are exposing their money to unprecedented (and mostly unknown) risks.
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Jan 2014 – Is this the TOP?

There’s loads of people calling the top, whether it is happening right now I don’t know for sure.

The recent price action is one of 2 things – a correction of some degree (large, medium or small) or a reversal.

I need to refer to my Time Cycle dates of March 2014 – they do not signal a top or bottom, all these Time Cycles do is give you an idea of possible turning dates.  so it is perfectly possible for price to fall in March, to fall now until March and then reverse or completely ignore the date – you then have to build a trading system that takes all that into account – obviously you need a signal to trigger a trade, that’s part of your trading rules.  the earliest date to be wary of are the weeks either side of 7th March 2014.

So far for me a high occurred in December 2013, a correction of some sort seems to be unfolding but nothing concrete.  I know you can create an Elliott Wave 5 waves up to the high, this may or may not be the 5th wave – only time will truly tell.

Too many people are on the “It’s a top bandwagon” for my liking, traditionally the week of 27th January is one of the stronger weeks of the year, so I’m personally looking to buy a Binary bet on the week to close UP, should the binary fall to the right price (25-33) for me and I’m also looking to establish a lot of long positions should they trigger from my set-ups, so as you can see I’m not particularly bearish (yet).

Here’s what I’m looking for:

  • Price to resume to new highs
  • Price to take out the LOW of December 2013 – that is the 1st true signal that this might be more than just a correction, BUT
  • It could just be a simple ABC correction, any at the point that the swing low referred to is breached I’ll be fully alert that this could now be more than just a simple correction – although at that point it’s highly likely that the simple correction will still be a possibility
  • The only thing to do is watch price action as it unfolds – can you see these options, why it’s nearly impossible to accurately call tops and bottoms, with trading you cannot be wishy washy, you have to make a call, go with it and if correct it will make you money if you’re wrong it loses you hard, real money.
  • For me the June 2013 LOW is the clear tell tale point that the trend has probably changed – there’s a huge number of points between today’s price and that level, so for the time being I’m just observing.

Jan blog post1

Jan blog post2

Jan blog post3

I’ll update this post as time progresses, more than likely by producing a new post detailing my updated thoughts.

I am fully aware that the official Elliott Wave count is screaming a 5th wave top, and they’ve issued an emergency alert to that fact, we’ll know for sure in a few months time.

The January Effect

Keep a watch of January’s market performance

In 88.9% of January’s since 1950, the performance of January sets the tone for the rest of the year

That means If January is UP, expect the year to be UP, If January is DOWN, expect the year to be FLAT or DOWN

Why I like Elliott Wave Internationals Analysis

Not the wave counts, but their outstanding monthly analysis, for years subscribers to their material have been aware of the content of this post, obviously not the current up to date data, but every month we’ve been warned of the true state of the worlds markets based on FACTS.

EWI can, do and have got a little carried away on their predicted wave counts, which is understandable, but if you distance yourself from those and see the facts, figures and analysis for what it truly is – an Indication of the true context of the markets then you can be aware of what may or may not be lurking around the corner.

For me?  Gold – topped in 2011 = not surprised – whilst “experts” where advising mass buying of the shiny stuff

Commodities struggling = not surprised

Understanding what the market did following QE issuance = not surprised

QE does not work during a deflationary depression – something I agree on with EWI – what has happened and why have markets stood up?  The time cycle (In my opinion), If I’m right on the Time Cycle the lows been and gone on 6th March 2009, the market should hold up regardless of economic theories, EW counts and so on.  I’m on record as saying that the 1929 event has already happened – it happened in 2000 with the Nasdaq – just get the charts and compare – been and gone in opinion.

Now knowing all this does not make it easier to trade with exactness!  But if you have more knowledge of the indicators that really matter you can rest, sleep and trade a lot easier than those that might be concerned about things but can’t quite place their finger on a logical explanation which helps to level the mind.

Enjoy the read:

Commodities Falling Despite QE: What Does That Mean?

Robert Prechter: “Charts tell the truth. Let’s look at some charts.”

By Elliott Wave International

During QE3, the latest round of the Fed’s quantitative easing, the stock market rose. We all know that.

But did you also know that commodities fell?

That’s right: QE3 had zero effect on commodities — or maybe
even a negative effect. In fact, an unbiased observer of the
trend might conclude that the Fed drove commodity prices down.

That, of course, would be heresy to investors who believe
that the Fed’s actions have been inflating all financial
markets.

What should you make of the fact that commodities have failed to respond to the massive, historic, unprecedented central-bank stimulus? We see it as a red flag.

What’s more, you may be surprised to know that not one of the Fed’s stimulus programs — QE1, QE2 and QE3 — pushed up commodity prices.

As Robert Prechter, the president of Elliott Wave International,
wrote in his November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist,
“Charts tell the truth. Let’s look at some charts.” These
four charts and analysis that he published in May, July, and
November 2013 tell the story:

(Robert Prechter, July 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist)

The CRB index of commodities has been losing ground for
more than two years, as shown in Figure 3. Notice the four
short arrows on the chart. Based on their positions, you
might think they would mark the timing of accurate sell
signals
generated by a secret indicator. But there’s
no secret indicator. These happen to be the times at which
the Fed launched its inflationary QE programs!

Investors almost universally take news at face value rather than paradoxically as they should. So they believed the Fed’s QE actions would be bullish for commodities. But — ironically yet naturally — every launch of a new QE program provided an opportunity to sell commodities near a high.

The first time the Fed bought a slew of new assets (QE0) was in 2008, and commodities went straight down during the entire buying spree.

QE1 (see below) was just a swapping of assets, not new buying, so it wasn’t inflationary; ironically, commodities rose during this time.

Commodities rose a little bit after the inflationary QE2 started but ultimately went lower. Since QE3 and QE4 — the two most aggressive programs of inflating the Fed has ever initiated — commodity prices have been trending lower as well.

Are commodities just late and poised to soar? I don’t think so. Figure 4 shows a chart of the CRB index published in The Elliott Wave Theorist back in May 2011.

It shows a three-step, countertrend rally … inside of a parallel trend channel … at a [Fibonacci] 62% retracement … thus giving three reasons to expect a peak at that time. [Indeed] the CRB index has trended moderately but persistently lower since then.

Prechter gave another update in his November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist:

Commodities are in a bear market. Figure 1 proves that the Fed’s feverish quantitative easing (QE) — i.e. record fiat-money inflating — is not driving overall prices of goods higher.

The bear market in commodities began two months before the Fed’s massive asset-buying program began. Despite the Fed’s inflating at a 33% rate annually for five straight years, commodities are still slipping lower.

Prechter’s final point from the November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist summarizes it best:

None of the believers in omnipotent monetary authorities and their pledges to inflate saw any of those changes coming. Meanwhile, we couldn’t see how it could turn out any other way.

The largest inverted debt pyramid in the history of the world is the reason that QE won’t work. The future is already fully mortgaged.


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Further Time Cycles for 2014

Hi All,

Hope you all have had a decent Christmas – I was trading (as usual!) on a few of the days, trouble is once you start this lark you have to take every signal whether it’s Christmas time or your Birthday or on holiday – obviously it depends upon what set-up you’re trading – I’ve a couple of methods that fire off about 30 times a year so it’s not that frequent and sometimes the gaps in between can be a couple of months so you have to react to them when they fire off, just in case you miss a decent mover!

Anyway – TIME CYCLES for 2014.

I hope you’ve read my previous post regarding the 5 & 7 year cycles due – If not go back, find and read it before reading this one as it will add more detail for you. – just search for a blog post titled 5 & 7 year cycles – it’s the only one for now.

There’s more time cycles due this year, I can’t give too much away as it’s contained within my recommended W.D. Gann course.

These new Time Cycles are dynamic, not static, but they nest nicely with the static Time Cycles I’ve already mentioned in the previous post on 5 & 7 year cycles.

I do apologise but the cycles are very close, I should of carried out this work during the summer of 2013 but I forgot.

Caveat first! – These Time Cycles have been used by calculating a unique Timing device, they are not guaranteed and with Timing it really depends whether the analyst has got the start dates correct, if I haven’t then all the dates will be wrong.  I’ve done my best to try to make sure I’ve used accurate dates but if the market has decided to shift then I won’t know until well after the fact.  As usual I just use these to base assumptions from.

Chart one:

2014-2017 TC 1

Okay chart one is a very long-term view of the S&P500 index, with numerous Time Cycles displayed, most of these Time Cycles have a starting date of 24th March 2000 high, apart from the GREEN line which has a starting date of 12/12/1914 – yes you read that correct 12th December 1914 – it was the day the Dow Jones re-opened at the low following the outbreak of World War I

Take a step back and just think how a 100 year Time Cycle can show up – this particular Time Cycle has previous form – it is related to the 1982 low, also projected from the 12/12/1914

Chart two:

2014-2017 TC 2

This is a zoomed in view of the Time Cycles with some commentary on the charts.

Here’s my outlook on what I’m looking for:

  • One of the cycles in 2014 or the cycles shown on a previous blog post for 2014 to turn the market to some degree
  • The Red line is the terminal date of the current major market Time Cycle we are in, this is where the next cycle may start from as well
  • The Green line backs up the Red Time cycle thinking – this provides me with a bit more confidence in my thinking (still does not mean it will work though!)
  • The Grey line arriving AFTER the Red line could be a warning, it might force the market to make a double bottom of some form – It has in the past when it arrives after the main cycle turning point so it has every chance of doing so again this time round.
  • At some point up to 2016 if the market is following form, there should be a 3 year bear/flat cycle – having the 2014 timing dates provides points to watch
  • I had thought the cycle arriving in May 2013 might have forced the 3 year bear market, the cycle arrived bang on but the follow through by the market was poor and failed, all we had was a 5 month long trading range, which is bearish but, you know….
  • The thing to do is be aware of these cycles and just observe – 2002, 2007 and 2009 have been virtually spot on time wise, we need to have faith that the remaining cycles will also prove accurate.

This is likely to be the last post on Time Cycles until 2017, at which point once we have seen a definite cycle point I’ll be able to project the next lot of key dates for the 2020’s.

As mentioned the key is locating the cycle start point, which happens through simple trial and error projections.

Once again I did not find or discover these cycles myself, these techniques are from my recommended Gann course.

If You Are Waiting For An “Economic Collapse”, Just Look At What Is Happening To Europe

Another enthralling, thought provoking article from http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

I’ve mentioned this elsewhere on this site, the fundamentals of the world are terrible, on paper you have to accept that the turmoil and fall out will/should be far greater than 2008-09.  Elliott Wave International have been saying for years that the dow is targeted for 400 points!  Which would match such terrible economic fundamentals.

However, I personally don’t think it will happen – I can see the reasons for such a collapse, I can see the reasons for gold @ $50,000 oz – let’s just focus on Europe – It’s a project, if the people who made the project don’t want it to fail, they through everything they can to make it survive – QE, low Interest Rates, hold back on repo’s, bail-ins, to me it makes sense, the powers that be don’t want the EU project to fail and they will do whatever it takes to maintain it, the same goes with the USA – yes there’ll be a shock soon, maybe another flash-crash, when we look back on the charts from say 2020, if the 2009 lows are still the low point since 2000, it will be confirmation that the people behind the scenes have succeeded in their attempt to prop up the EU and probably the world.

Yes at some point the USA and it’s currency will come under fire, If a new world currency is on the cards then again the powers running that will do everything they can to prop the damn idea up and push it through- I think everyones been sold the idea of complete economic failure, I personally don’t and have not bought into it, yes I understand it and agree with some aspects of it, it’s a complex beast.  The question I ask myself is who benefits from the changes and if 8/10 people are financially destitute do those who benefit suffer or prosper – when the entire world relies upon credit, it pays for the masses NOT to be destitute to service the debts and keep the profits rolling in for those providing the debt.

Look back at the war years – there should of been massive spikes down in the markets due to the war yet the opposite happened, once again the world was propped up by guaranteed QE from the worlds financers, I personally think similar effects are in play in today’s markets.

I am biased as to my outlook for the next few years, previously mentioned and stated on this site and I have a blog post that I wrote in December 2013 which is scheduled to be published later on this month (Jan 2014) which details potential turn dates and outlooks – a total and utter collapse goes against my expectations and it has done now for over 2 years – we shall see what the years hold for us as they progress.

Enjoy, there’s some great stats below and it is truly shocking and if the markets worked on common sense they’d be massively lower to confirm the shocking fundamentals – the markets don’t do common sense though!

If You Are Waiting For An “Economic Collapse”, Just Look At What Is Happening To Europe

Posted: 08 Jan 2014 01:29 PM PST

European UnionIf you are anxiously awaiting the arrival of the “economic collapse”, just open up your eyes and look at what is happening in Europe.  The entire continent is a giant economic mess right now.  Unemployment and poverty levels are setting record highs, car sales are setting record lows, and there is an ocean of bad loans and red ink everywhere you look.  Over the past several years, most of the attention has been on the economic struggles of Greece, Spain and Portugal and without a doubt things continue to get even worse in those nations.  But in 2014 and 2015, Italy and France will start to take center stage.  France has the 5th largest economy on the planet, and Italy has the 9th largest economy on the planet, and at this point both of those economies are rapidly falling to pieces.  Expect both France and Italy to make major headlines throughout the rest of 2014.  I have always maintained that the next major wave of the economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening.  The following are just a few of the statistics that show that an “economic collapse” is happening in Europe right now…

-The unemployment rate in the eurozone as a whole is still sitting at an all-time record high of 12.1 percent.

-It Italy, the unemployment rate has soared to a brand new all-time record high of 12.7 percent.

-The youth unemployment rate in Italy has jumped up to 41.6 percent.

-The level of poverty in Italy is now the highest that has ever been recorded.

-Many analysts expect major economic trouble in Italy over the next couple of years.  The President of Italy is openly warning of “widespread social tension and unrest” in his nation in 2014.

-Citigroup is projecting that Italy’s debt to GDP ratio will surpass 140 percent by the year 2016.

-Citigroup is projecting that Greece’s debt to GDP ratio will surpass 200 percent by the year 2016.

-Citigroup is projecting that the unemployment rate in Greece will reach 32 percent in 2015.

-The unemployment rate in Spain is still sitting at an all-time record high of 26.7 percent.

-The youth unemployment rate in Spain is now up to 57.7 percent – even higher than in Greece.

-The percentage of bad loans in Spain has risen for eight straight months and recently hit a brand new all-time record high of 13 percent.

-The number of mortgage applications in Spain has fallen by 90 percent since the peak of the housing boom.

-The unemployment rate in France has risen for 9 quarters in a row and recently soared to a new 16 year high.

-For 2013, car sales in Europe were on pace to hit the lowest yearly level ever recorded.

-Deutsche Bank, probably the most important bank in Germany, is the most highly leveraged bank in Europe (60 to 1) and it has approximately 70 trillion dollars worth of exposure to derivatives.

Europe truly is experiencing an economic nightmare, and it is only going to get worse.

It would be hard to put into words the extreme desperation that unemployed workers throughout Europe are feeling right now.  When you can’t feed your family and you can’t find work no matter how hard you try, it can be absolutely soul crushing.

To get an idea of the level of desperation in Spain, check out the following anecdote from a recent NPR article

Having trouble wrapping your head around southern Europe’s staggering unemployment problem?

Look no further than a single Ikea furniture store on Spain’s Mediterranean coast.

The plans to open a new megastore next summer near Valencia. On Monday, Ikea’s started taking applications for 400 jobs at the new store.

The company wasn’t prepared for what came next.

Within 48 hours, more than 20,000 people had applied online for those 400 jobs. The volume crashed Ikea’s computer servers in Spain.

Of course that should kind of remind you of what I wrote about yesterday.  We are starting to see this kind of intense competition for low paying jobs in the United States as well.

As global economic conditions continue to deteriorate, things are going to get even tougher for those on the low end of the economic food chain.  Poverty rates are going to soar, even in areas where you might not expect it to happen.  In fact, one new report discovered that poverty has already been rising steadily in Germany, which is supposed to be the strongest economy in the entire eurozone…

A few days before the Christmas holidays, the Joint Welfare Association published a report on the regional development of poverty in Germany in 2013 titled “Between prosperity and poverty—a test to breaking point”. The report refutes the official propaganda that Germany has remained largely unaffected by the crisis and is a haven of prosperity in Europe.

According to the report, poverty in Germany has “reached a sad record high”. Entire cities and regions have been plunged into ever deeper economic and social crisis. “The social and regional centrifugal forces, as measured by the spread of incomes, have increased dramatically in Germany since 2006,” it says. Germany faces “a test to breaking point.”

Of course poverty continues to explode on this side of the Atlantic Ocean as well.  In the United States, the poverty rate has been at 15 percent or above for three years in a row.  That is the first time that this has happened since the 1960s.

And this is just the beginning.  The extreme recklessness of European banks such as Deutsche Bank and U.S. banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citibank and Goldman Sachs is eventually going to cause a financial catastrophe far worse than what we experienced back in 2008.

When that crisis arrives, the flow of credit is going to freeze up dramatically and economic activity will grind to a standstill.  Unemployment, poverty and all of our current economic problems will become much, much worse.

So as bad as things are right now, the truth is that this is nothing compared to what is coming.

I hope that you are getting prepared for the coming storm while you still can.

Historic Optimism in the Stock Market – What Does it Mean?

 

Historic Optimism in the Stock Market – What Does it Mean?

By
Elliott Wave International

How do you know when the market is getting ready
for a change? This quote from Bob Prechter’s best-selling book, Conquer
the Crash
, looks at investor psychology at extremes in the markets:

The engine of high stock market valuation is widely shared optimism.
The greater the degree of the advance that is ending, the greater the
optimism at its peak. Optimism also tends to remain strong in the early
stages of a bear market …

Today, how optimistic
are market participants? Bob dedicated an entire issue of his Elliott
Wave Theorist
market letter to looking at the level of optimism in
the markets today. These two charts, excerpted from that letter, show
just a piece of the story. Learn how you can get the entire issue, with
15 eye-opening charts, for free.

* * * * *

“Charts tell the truth. Let’s look at some charts …

“Figure 9
shows that in the second-to-last week of October, the public poured more
money into various U.S. stock funds than at any time in at least seven
years, which includes the 2007 stock market top.

“All this stock buying has created a lopsided investment ratio among fund
sectors. As shown in Figure 10, the percentage of money in Rydex’s conservative
money-market funds as opposed to speculative stock market funds is the
lowest since 2001, which is just after the all-time high in the real value
for stocks.”

These are just two of the 15 charts that you can see for free. For a limited
time, Elliott Wave International is giving away a full issue of Robert
Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. In this 10-page issue, you
can see all 15 charts and decide for yourself whether the market is at
an optimistic extreme. See below for more details.


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