The 5 & 7 year Time Cycle’s

There is a 5 year Time cycle due to arrive 7th March 2014, from the 6th March 2009 lows – Traders would be wise to be aware of this potential date (Well the month of March, I have another more specific Time Cycle post due out in a few weeks).  A 5 year bull market in a deflationary depression is a very very long run, a 5 year cycle in any type of market is advanced.  I might be totally wrong, but If I’m not there are going to be thousands of buy and hold investors looking for 30% profits once again in 2014 who may be trapped in positions should a reversal arrive in 2014.

I think (from memory) that every deflationary depression in history has maxed out at 5 years for a bull market within it’s cycle – I’ve not checked the figures for this, it’s just me thinking aloud and jotting it down.

Nothing may come of it, we know from history that 5 year cycles turn the market, this is proved on the chart without any doubt – what we don’t know for certain is whether this one will stop the market in it’s tracks, cause a major correction or simply just be ignored – it is impossible to know this for certain, but at least we are aware of the possibility.

It would also pay you to look at the 7 year 364 week Time Cycle projected from the Oct 2007 high – that hits in Oct 2014, so we have 2 dates for 2014, MARCH and OCTOBER that would be worth watching.

I would also project this 7 year cycle from the July 2007 high as well – this lands July 2014 – the reason for this the 2007 high was a double top, it was not a clean reversal, so you don’t know for certain which top may be the cycle start point – I prefer to keep things simple and try to use the actual high, but you have to be aware of the possibility of the July date simply due to the fact that the double top of 2007 were very close in time and price.

You should also scan back to 2000 – make a note of the MONTHS where the market made major reversals (2000 high, 2002 low, 2007 high and 2009 low) for a common theme, it might purely be coincidence but I like these coincidences in the markets.

One thing is for sure at some point a multi-month correction has to happen or a full on reversal – I would bet that the public have or are now piling back into the market in droves, they’ll be under the impression that markets just go upwards, as (I’m assuming here) they’ll only bother thinking about or looking back a couple of years.

A major warning sign would be sentiment indicators reading overbought right around those dates – again it might just be coincidental, but something will turn the market at some point.

If you put enough lines on the chart one of them will be caught and hey presto you’re a timing expert!  It can’t be done with huge accuracy, hence all the If’s, but’s and maybe’s in my posts on timing – the only other date of possible significance is from another Time Cycle from the 2000 high and that date is 6th April 2014

I do have some more thoughts and options on 2014 – rather than clog up this blog post, I will create a new post covering the alternative Time Cycles for possible turning dates, I’ve already done this in December 2013, but I’ve not published it yet – it is scheduled to be published later this month.

Chart 5 year cycle:

5 year TC

Chart showing all:

7yr

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