2013 Review and look forward to 2014

Hi All,

Just a quick year end review of the year 2013 and a look into 2014.

2013 – My personal main focus for 2013 was the May Time Cycle, this came, the market reacted to the very day but failed to follow through, it’s now obvious that the markets love QE or the thought of it.  It’s quite heartening that, that cycle hit and then the market just moved sideways for 5 months – basically a flat correction.

My mini cycle analysis doesn’t seem to have had much impact either I might mess about with the starting dates to see if I simply messed that part up – to be fair I don’t think the cycle is working!

Regarding the May Time Cycle, this was a multi-year Time Cycle and it arrived to the very day, so we have to say that that Time Cycle worked but the required and expected follow through did not – there is an explanation and owners of the Gann course I recommend should know what’s going on if it’s working out the historic cycle.

2014 – Seasonality suggest the period November to April should be bullish – obviously not guaranteed!

There is a simple Gann 5 year cycle due in March 2014 from the March 2009 low, there’s also a simple static 7 year cycle from the October 2007 high due in October 2014.  The 5 year cycle last worked in 2002-2007 and came in at 260/261 weeks.

If the market cycle I think is playing out then it nearly always ends with a 3 year bear market – of course this could be either Flat or outright bearish – it is impossible to know for sure – this deflationary depression should terminate around the end of 2016 and start of 2017, so the time is very ripe for the start of that bear period to kick in.

The LAST time this market cycle occurred, price action was not overly bearish, you could call it flat to slight down in the overall 3 year period of time.  QE was an influencing factor and it seems it also is in today’s market, so QE is skewing things again.  I have already mentioned in previous posts that if the market cycle is as thought then it should not do too much damage to the low of March 2009 – everyone is calling for a massive bear market due to all the QE – until it happens we don’t really know what it will look like, I’m of the opinion and outlook that the March 2009 low should remain intact, If it is breached, then again my opinion is that is won’t be too severe – This is purely borne out of reference to when this market cycle last ran out.

As always the markets will prove right and you only make money by being with the market.

The next 3 years should provide great opportunities to start to establish core positions in the main stock markets of the western world.

Wishing you all the best for 2014 and onwards

 

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