Full and Proper update to the May 2013 Time Cycle

Hi,

Thought I’d provide a proper debrief of the May 2013 Time Cycle  – I’ve produced various posts referring to it and it’s on the Gann page too, so thought it’s only right to provide an up to date and accurate debrief.

In May 2013, I was expecting a major turn in the markets (so far it’s not happened), the expectation was that it would be a Bearish period leading to significant falls in the market.  That was the best case outlook for the Time Cycle, let’s look what actually happened:

TC update

On reflection, and we’ll have to do this one more time when looking back from 2014 price action! There’s some good positive points that need to be acknowledged and looked at:

1) The Time Cycles WORKED, look at the chart, the 2 down arrows could have been forecast DECADES in the PAST – they hit to the very day and made the market turn – what did not work was PRICE action, we only had a 7.5% fall in price

2) The entire May – October 2013 period was NOT significantly Bullish – Yes it was Bullish in the sense of rising bottoms and tops, but compared to Jan 2013 – May 2013 no.  So we can say that the TC caused price action to stall.

3) This is the minimum you have to expect from Time Cycles, sometimes there’ll provide a really good fall and other times all you’ll get is a trading range, as happened in May 2013.

There’s not much more to expect from this Time Cycle, it hit, moved price but not as expected.

Remember we should be in a Deflationary Depression from 2000 – so far to date the evidence is that we are and have been, the expectation is that, that Deflationary Depression will exist until January 2017.   SO all is still not rosy in the Investing garden.

The only action we can really take is to watch as the market action unfolds.

At some stage the market will drop by 15%+, it’s just whether that becomes a possible buy area – too soon to tell at the moment.

So to conclude, the May 2013 TC failed in the expected PRICE follow through for the market but it worked as a TC and managed to stall the market.

I will be revealing a few more dates between 2014 and 2017 to watch – whether they work or not is anyone’s guess – the point is we are aware of their potential, that does not mean guaranteed success!

 

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2 Comments

  1. Greg

     /  November 21, 2013

    I believe in ganns work but am not smart enough to figure out or even try which led me to your site. Another site I follow which follows gann is adamant the decline starts march 2014 and last until 2017. Wondering if this date has come up on your radar

    Reply
    • Hi Greg,

      Thanks for the comment – the problem with Gann is he mentions lots of cycles but he never expressively told anyone exactly how and which to apply – died without disclosing, so everyone who looks at Gann for cycles are always left guessing and the key fact most people ignore is that Gann was not 100% correct.

      I’m sure if you put in a year or 2 reading Gann and applying you’d soon become a Gann Expert
      I’ve not heard the March 2014 cycle turn date – be interesting to watch though.
      I’m going to produce a cycle analysis blog post for the next few years up to 2017 (I’ll try to do it before 2013’s out), that will list the remaining key dates that I have.

      I’m fairly content in my outlook for the next couple of decades – 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009 all came in as expected, the slight fly in the ointment is May 2013.
      If 2017 turns out to be the bottom for many, many decades I’ll be happy with the Time Cycles – we shall see what turns up as time progresses.

      Reply

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