Trade Analysis – November 2013 – GBPUSD Long

For the past week I’ve been in a LONG GBPUSD trade

Here’s the Stats – Entry – 15896, Stop 52 pips @ 15844, Target 275 pips @ 16171 = 5R trade, Risk £150 to make £750

The exit/entry figs are from my trading platform, other trading platforms might show slightly different figs.

Anyway, it’s now getting close to a possible SHORT position, so I’m out of the Long position – the set-up used for this trade is not detailed or described on this blog – I often take a peek at the position the majority of people are taking when I a) Take the trade and b) Exit the trade.

This is a screen capture of this trade @ exit:

Capture

I was long, I’m now out of the trade as my profit objective has been met, but I always find it interesting that as price has been rising the past few days – It would be great to know and understand everyone’s reason for the trades but it’s fairly clear that over 501 people are trading this market – actual figures not known so it could be 20,000 accounts!

Only a few of us have long this market, other might be holding on expecting a fall in price – truth is you don’t know what is going to happen for sure.

I find using Client Sentiment hopefully it’s accurate!) often gives me confidence in a position, because most people lose in this industry, having the opposite side to the majority when I take a position gives me more confidence than when I’m trading in their anticipated direction.

Don’t get me wrong, sometimes the majority are right, it’s just another tool to use to gauge a potential/existing trade – please note that I’ll take the trade if my set-ups tell me to, REGARDLESS of client sentiment.

So in the trade above I’d of still gone Long even if 100% of clients where Long – I don’t shy away from a trade based on client sentiment, I just use it as a confidence tool sometimes – depends upon the set-up I’m using.

It’s interesting to note from the latest Elliott Wave publication that the vast majority of people Invested in the stock market are LONG, this is confirmed by the cash holdings of mutual funds being at there LOWEST levels for years – the significance of this is that this typically occurs right before serious stock market falls – although not a certainty, but something to be mindful of going forward.

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