Time Cycle Update

Hi All,

Thought I needed to add to the Time Cycle posts I’ve made referring to 2013.

I’m still of the opinion that 2013 should be a top/high in the market – namely S&P500 – due to the combination of Time Cycles arriving this year and the expectations these Time Cycles have within the greater scheme of things.

As previously mentioned many months ago May, August and October are / were high probability months for market reactions.  We can see so far that theory has been proven right – BUT – not with the desired effect.

These Time Cycles will either work or fail, for me there’s very little middle ground – at the end of the day if you use Time Cycles to trade by/with then you’ll have REAL money on the line and when the area of Time Cycles are tainted by bad calls the bottom line is you lose money.

So for the rest of this year – 2013:

  • The time Cycle that hit [to the day] in May 2013, Is still having an effect on the market.  Since May 2013 the market has formed a Triple Top, bearish sideways behaviour, which could be construed as slightly [very] bullish
  • For the 2013 Time Cycle Theory to maintain it’s expectation we need the market [S&P500] to drop and drop below June’s low as a bare minimum, ideally a fall of 15% or more would do the Time Cycle justice.
  • The period 2013-2016 is still being categorised as an expected BEARISH period, so far nothing has changed that view and it would take something pretty major to do so
  • Spookily enough the October Time Cycle due this month 17th – the same day as the US Debt Ceiling deadline, other than October the only other dates I have are 20-23 December 2013.
  • A perfect ending to this period would be from now [9th October 2013], would be a rally upwards towards the September 2013 highs but not exceeding, into/around 17th October 2013 and then bang, plunge, crash forcing a major correction greater in price [by it’s end] than 2010 or 2011 corrections.

Here’s an up to date chart of the S&P500 with Time Cycle detail  – all that I’ve updated on this chart is the price bars.

1

Although not perfect, Market action since the May 2013 high has not been strongly bullish, which still gives me confidence in my outlook – the only obvious action to negate this is should the market strongly rally over the course of the next few months.

What is perfectly possible is that May 2013 Time Cycle worked and all the market is doing is creating a bearish formation Triple Top, rather than just falling heavily from May’s high – I’m afraid with these types of thing there is no “set” form to any such advances/declines etc – you have to take what the market throws at you.

In simple terms, I still think the May 2013 Time Cycle is valid until proven wrong and that has not happened yet.

P.S. – the May/August & October Time Cycle dates are NOT displayed on the chart above, all I’m showing you are the minor TC’s on that chart.

hope it helps.

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