Next 3 years what’s the market going to do?

Hi,

The market should form a high/Top during 2013, you know my preferred month was May from previous posts and the W.D. Gann – Medium Term Market Predictions page.

That does not mean that during 2014 a new price high can’t be conjured up by the market, it’s highly unlikely  but could happen.

When you look at a weekly/monthly chart of the S&P500 and especially of the Nasdaq you should be able to easily tell that the overall trend of the 3 year period has been flat to down.  IF new highs are recorded during 2014 then I would expect it will be quick poke higher and then a drop – NOT continued bullish price appreciation – IF price does form a bullish continual ascent then my outlook for the future is totally and utterly screwed.

Warning:  the only way of knowing for sure if I’m right or wrong is after 2017!  this is MY outlook on the markets NOT trading advice, even though I’ll be and already am trading my outlook, you trade/invest at your own risk.  I would recommend you learn for yourself how to do this rather than relying on others, tips, blogs etc.

Here’s Chart 1 with my preferred outlook:

Outlook1

Chart 1 shows a drop and then sideways range – with the lows of March 2009 still intact

Here’s Chart 2 with my alternative option outlook:

Outlook2

Chart 2 shows price action nearly reaching the lows of March 2009 but not exceeding – this scenario also allows price to briefly exceed the March 2009 low but not massively exceeding them.

Here’s Chart 3 – this is what Elliott Wave Analysis expects:

OutlookEW

To prove and conform to EWT price really needs as a minimum to reach the 300 point area for the S&P500 or 3000 point zone and less for the Dow.

Let the next 3 years unfold and see what happens.

Be under no doubt whatsoever, if any of these 3 scenarios occur it will put immense pressure on the government – REGARDLESS of which party is in power, public mood will at some point be very very bitter:

I’ve previously made my predictions based on the Europe vote, the next UK general election and the President of the USA being booted out of office prior to his term ended – please note I have nothing against the President of the USA, I predict he’d be re-elected and was happy to back that decision with money – my analysis is purely from a stock market perspective, I let the direction of the stock market determine the outcome of key global events.

All the best

THT

Advertisements
Leave a comment

5 Comments

  1. Reblogged this on The HOVIS Trader and commented:

    Thought I’d reblog this post as it serves to back up my predictions – pretty accurate, especially the UK market and the USA markets since 2013 loosely fall into these descriptions

    Reply
  2. Simon Phillips

     /  January 22, 2016

    Thanks for the repost! Do you really think the S&P could get down as low as the 1000mark by years end? Its not looking good so far with the worst Jan on record so far I believe. My worst downside thought at Christmas was that old highs of 2007 would be tested this year, that is 14000 area for the Dow and 1600 area for the S&P 500. Then a nice bull market into the end of the decade. Cheers Simon.

    Reply
    • Hi Simon – I’m open to price of any kind – its the one factor that cannot be accurately forecast consistently.
      My personal view following recent moves is a floor might of been found – If you look at the DOW it came within <100 points of the low of August – If in then next few trading days price bounces we'll know it was a level of importance.
      I'd say the extreme is price down to those levels you mention – I think price will now form a sideways trading range until Dec 2016, bouncing from the top to bottom – the thing to watch for is around late November and throughout December is if prices are falling in value to expect the low to come in at some point soon thereafter.
      I wish there was a cast iron way to predict price – it can't be done with consistency

      Reply
    • The chart is not showing on my side for some reason – I see why you asked about the price levels – ignore them on the chart I only used the chart to illustrate the general market pattern expectation NOT the price levels

      Reply
  3. Simon Phillips

     /  January 25, 2016

    Ok thanks a lot for the clarification on the trend vs the price. I am of exactly the same opinion thus far and was thinking the worst case was very strong resistance at the old highs set in 2007. In my opinion interest rates are dimly too low with low commodities low oil – to send the US into any sort of recession in the next couple of years. I will be watching the 52 week high stocks for bullish trading patterns approaching the end of the year and will be throwing some money at them when I see first signs of the market turning into a solid uptrend. Thanks again for sharing. Cheers Simon

    Reply

Comment Here:

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: