Timing Example

Hi

Heres a quick and brief look at how to combine Timing into your analysis.  As with anything in trading it;s not 100% accurate but I personally find that it;s useful to know, be aware of and incorporate in my trading.

I believe that the market is patterned (although it is very hard to see that pattern all the time), I believe that the minor swings in the market are building something which is then building an even large pattern – in other words Fractal like.  This can then be associated with Elliott Wave Theory – yes, but I don’t trade using EWT due to its subjectiveness.

But I do believe that during the same TIME cycles/swings that the markets maintain a similar Time pattern etc.

For example, when a market makes a series of higher highs and lower lows we class that as an uptrend – what makes it stop?  I believe what makes it stop is the higher time cycle running out, when this higher time cycle ends, the minor swings reverse to the down side and if the higher time cycles (weeks/months/years/decades) are pointing down then the market will make their direction south.

I’m working on how to work out these larger time cycles and their typical direction to see if it;s predictable – this will take a lot of time and effort so bear with me.  The markets are a collection of Human beings making decisions, this is WHY theres a regularity to these cycles.

W.D. Gann said” When TIME runs out, a reversal is inevitable”

Here’s Chart 1:  HIGH

timing 1

Here’s Chart 2: LOW

timing 2

There is absolutely NO way to 100% predict with certainty that a a high or low is in until it’s confirmed by price action and price action only – When I use an indicator, I’m using it to get in on a probable reversal – that does not mean the reversal is confirmed, I might (and have been) early using indicators to get in and then stopped out as price reverses slightly and then puts in the low – this then requires you to MAKE 2 trades when the indicator makes 2 bullish reversals, there’s absolutely nothing you can do about it – unless you widen stops out significantly.

Once the highs confirmed, we’d then run our time analysis from the swing low to obtain roughly when the next HIGH is due in – It is essential to remember that when the higher time cycle expires the minor swings are likely to alter too!  This is why you must compare like for like, i.e. during a bear market section only use time swings from other bear markets to compare.

People talk about Fibonacci retracements – I look at them too – but you NEVER, EVER know for certain WHICH level will hold price – if it does at all.  I bet if you ran a study on Fib levels pretty much ALL known fib levels would hold price – I’ve not carried out a study, nor am I, just my personal thoughts.

To take this one step further I’ve started looking at Fibonacci COUNTS in PRICE and Fibonacci levels looking for cluster zones.

Take a look at chart 3: Fib Price counts

timing 3

So far on the FTSE100 we have Price Fib counts and Fib levels that have acted as support @ the 50% level – the 50% fib level AND price fib counts in points @ 144 points.  144 is also a KEY Gann number and relates to Gann’s square of 12 (12 x 12 = 144)

My thinking is, if the entire universe conforms to Fibonacci related mathematics, then global markets must do too.

The Daily DTosc indicator is also oversold and due  bullish reversal which indicates time should be coming to a low.

Just so that we are all clear the only real time we are going to know for certain is if/when the March high is exceeded!

Anyone new reading this might question how we make money trading with so much uncertainty – welcome to the real world of trading

Hope it helps

THT

Advertisements
Leave a comment

Comment Here:

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: