Timing Example

Hi

Heres a quick and brief look at how to combine Timing into your analysis.  As with anything in trading it;s not 100% accurate but I personally find that it;s useful to know, be aware of and incorporate in my trading.

I believe that the market is patterned (although it is very hard to see that pattern all the time), I believe that the minor swings in the market are building something which is then building an even large pattern – in other words Fractal like.  This can then be associated with Elliott Wave Theory – yes, but I don’t trade using EWT due to its subjectiveness.

But I do believe that during the same TIME cycles/swings that the markets maintain a similar Time pattern etc.

For example, when a market makes a series of higher highs and lower lows we class that as an uptrend – what makes it stop?  I believe what makes it stop is the higher time cycle running out, when this higher time cycle ends, the minor swings reverse to the down side and if the higher time cycles (weeks/months/years/decades) are pointing down then the market will make their direction south.

I’m working on how to work out these larger time cycles and their typical direction to see if it;s predictable – this will take a lot of time and effort so bear with me.  The markets are a collection of Human beings making decisions, this is WHY theres a regularity to these cycles.

W.D. Gann said” When TIME runs out, a reversal is inevitable”

Here’s Chart 1:  HIGH

timing 1

Here’s Chart 2: LOW

timing 2

There is absolutely NO way to 100% predict with certainty that a a high or low is in until it’s confirmed by price action and price action only – When I use an indicator, I’m using it to get in on a probable reversal – that does not mean the reversal is confirmed, I might (and have been) early using indicators to get in and then stopped out as price reverses slightly and then puts in the low – this then requires you to MAKE 2 trades when the indicator makes 2 bullish reversals, there’s absolutely nothing you can do about it – unless you widen stops out significantly.

Once the highs confirmed, we’d then run our time analysis from the swing low to obtain roughly when the next HIGH is due in – It is essential to remember that when the higher time cycle expires the minor swings are likely to alter too!  This is why you must compare like for like, i.e. during a bear market section only use time swings from other bear markets to compare.

People talk about Fibonacci retracements – I look at them too – but you NEVER, EVER know for certain WHICH level will hold price – if it does at all.  I bet if you ran a study on Fib levels pretty much ALL known fib levels would hold price – I’ve not carried out a study, nor am I, just my personal thoughts.

To take this one step further I’ve started looking at Fibonacci COUNTS in PRICE and Fibonacci levels looking for cluster zones.

Take a look at chart 3: Fib Price counts

timing 3

So far on the FTSE100 we have Price Fib counts and Fib levels that have acted as support @ the 50% level – the 50% fib level AND price fib counts in points @ 144 points.  144 is also a KEY Gann number and relates to Gann’s square of 12 (12 x 12 = 144)

My thinking is, if the entire universe conforms to Fibonacci related mathematics, then global markets must do too.

The Daily DTosc indicator is also oversold and due  bullish reversal which indicates time should be coming to a low.

Just so that we are all clear the only real time we are going to know for certain is if/when the March high is exceeded!

Anyone new reading this might question how we make money trading with so much uncertainty – welcome to the real world of trading

Hope it helps

THT

SPECIAL – Market Outlook by Robert Miner

Hi All,

This is a very special video post from Robert Miner.

The vast majority of people visiting this site come via a search term for DTosc or DTosc formula – obviously they’ve read Robert Miners “High Probability Trading Strategies” book and are searching the web for the secrets – there are no secrets!

Although I don’t use Elliott Waves, I always enjoy Roberts (rare) video tutorials as I DO use Time analysis, logic & of course the DTosc.

If you enjoyed Roberts book then the video is a must watch, as it covers virtually everything from the book and is a great educational piece.

Remember my date for a TOP in this market was for the end of April-May 2013, so Robert and I disagree on the final top, BUT, if you check out a couple of my recent blog posts you’ll see the time zone I predicted for a top this month – whether that is a temp or final top we’ll only find out in due course.

Here’s a link if you’re interested in Robert Miners views on the market (S&P500):

Stock Index Video Forecast

March 2013 and Beyond

By Robert Miner
Dynamic Traders Group, Inc.
I’ve just posted a video report for the stock index forecast
for March 2013 and beyond.
The forecast includes the probable maximum time and price
targets for the extreme high in 2013. These targets are very close to the current market.

The report is free.

To view the report, go to

http://www.dynamictraders.com/free-tools/free-tools.html

The video is about 50 minutes and is a great learning experience
along with a valuable forecast. This is not a sales report.
It is pure education and forecast.

I am making this new video report available to all friends of Dynamic Traders Group.

If you find the report useful, let you trader friends and discussion groups know about it.

Regards,

Robert Miner
Dynamic Traders Group, Inc.

Next MAJOR Time Cycle for the Stock markets?

I thought as I was working on the blog, I’d pop up the next major time cycle for you.

This time Cycle is due to commence in 2017 and if it follows it’s expected course it should look something similar to the chart below:

This chart is from 1949!  The Time cycle REPEATS – they ALL do – the thing to do is WATCH as it all unfolds.

I’m pretty confident that for the next BULL market phase of the stock market this is it’s approximate path- we’ll see in 2034

What happened during the equivalent Time Cycle from 2000?

Look below:

The chart is the Dow Jones from 1929

Nasdaq

look familiar to the Nasdaq from 2000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  It’s virtually the blooming same.

It is extremely hard to calculate and work out these time cycles – none of this is my own work, it is the work of my recommended Gann Course provider – a genius that I have never met, who’s unlocked the map of the market.

My recommended Gann course provider also shows you how to time the swings within the major cycles using other time cycles, to isolate turning points visible on monthly charts.

Hope it helps

THT

Next HIGH for the S&P500

Based upon the cycle swings in the S&P500 over the past 7 years [2006-2013], this is what my software is telling me when to expect the next high in the S&P500:

S&P500 Next High

Let’s see how the Time Zone pans out.  The dates are shown in the Indicator window on the chart above.  The purple colourd dates are the High-High cycles, the Grey coloured dates are the over-lap = Ideal time for a correction and the Green coloured dates are the Low-high cycles in bullish moves from 2006.

If this market is still dancing to the same tune then in all likely hood a TOP should typically occur within that time zone followed by a minor correction or maybe even a major correction.

Obviously I won’t be trading a short unless a clear short set-up occurs within the Time-Zone.

This is not trading/Investment advice, I’m showing you just one of many ways to predict and project Time cycles within the markets.

Each market has it’s own Vibration rate, so what works for the S&P500 might not work out exactly for say Gold etc.  the best way of running Time analysis for Gold would be to use the Gold chart and analyse Golds swings from the past!

I’d recommend that you use this information only watch what happens.

Please for the life of you remember my prediction on W.D. Gann – Medium-Term Market Outlook page – that Time Cycle is very very accurate.  In case you’ve forgotten or are not aware the Time Zone for a market TOP for many years is between April-October 2013.

Obviously within this Time Zone there are 3 (yes 3) key Time Cycles that are due – If each of these Time Cycles are as strong as each other, we might see double and triple tops forming during that time zone – If the 1st Time Cyle [due end April 2013] is the strongest then prices should just melt away, with only small/minor reactions as the other time cycles reach their expiration dates.

I’ve got some real exciting stuff to show you using Fibonacci Time cycles, but that’s for another blog post in the future when I have time.  Incidentally some Fibonacci ratios are showing a Top for 2013 too!

Enjoy

THT