Making Predictions

We all know that making predictions about the market is a fools game and I’m a big fool!

I know and understand that the market can and does do just about anything it wants and we have no way of knowing for sure what it will do, however, that does not stop me from trying to predict both TIME & PRICE levels for the market to hit/meet.

Hell man, I’ve even put my cards on the table and started to publish Time Cycles on my “W.D. Gann – Medium Term Market Predictions” page – this is for MAJOR turning points in the market and I’ve more to add to that page too in time.

Anyway here’s a chart that captures a lot of detail and information:

S&P500

It solely depends upon your thoughts and beliefs about the markets – if you think (as I do) that most price swings are linked somehow then these projections can work for you, especially when you have a fairly accurate momentum indicator that helps back up the case.

Let’s have a look at the time aspect – using the exact same parameters for Price, but on the Time axis – I’m not as convinced on Time Cycles from previous swings – but they can be useful:

S&P500

Trailing a stop up during this time would not have hurt.

Now for something that I’ve just spotted and remembered:

S&P500 1

The chart above shows you how using Robert Miners Fibonacci Time Ratio’s (mentioned in his book) the BOTTOM on the correction in Nov 2012 could have been projected and anticipated 2 months in advance!!! – from the high in Sept 2012.

Add in the DTosc Bullish reversal and you have a pretty sound reason to trade to the long side, even though the minor trend is down.  What other aspect would of helped?

Fibonacci or Gann levels [not displayed/shown].  I can tell you that the Nov 2012 LOW sat bang on the 62.5% Gann Retracement level – for Fib users price came close to the 61.8% Fib level!

How much more confirmation do you need that a potential turning point was at hand?

This is an EASY one, markets aren’t usually this clear-cut, but occasionally they are, as above.

To any new readers/subscribers  who read Miners book or have read it, NO I don’t use Elliott Waves or EW counts – I’m very aware of EW but I don’t use it, the experts at Elliott Wave have since 1986 been calling for the top of the market, if they can’t do it with high degree accuracy I sure can’t – I personally think that the next 3 years are do or die for Elliott Wave as a concept, their counts must see the 2009 lows taken out by a massive amount, if that fails to occur then the overall structure their counts are suggesting goes on the scrap heap.  It’s got to the stage now where EW is right or wrong.

Hope it helps

The Hovis Trader

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