Far dated view on the UK’s involvement in Europe

Will the UK remove itself from the EU (European Union)?

I write this article as a full UK national and citizen, born, bred and educated in the UK.

On Wednesday 23rd January 2013, our prime minister David Cameron, gave a speech outlining the UK’s role within the EU – you can find the speech by googling it, I won’t reprint it here because the speech is not the purpose of this post –  the outcome in 2017 is the purpose of this post.

David Cameron has outlined providing a full in or out referendum to us on being part of Europe in 2017.

The last time the country had chance to vote was in the 1970’s, when I was only a few months old, so I’ve never had a say on Europe, since the 1970’s we’ve not been a fully paid up member of the EU but we have been very well versed in it’s policies and culture.  for instance in our supermarkets Banana’s have to CONFORM to EU size and curvature directives, unless they can’t be sold, another is that rather than working in pounds and ounces we have to work in kilograms and grams – there’s actually hundreds of silly EU rules that we have to abide by! – In other words the EU tell us what we can and can’t do in various area’s of life and commerce.

To be fair previous governments have negotiated various opt outs and vetoes so that we aren’t forced to abide by all rules, but still in my eyes the EU’s involvement in UK life has and will continue to cause friction and problems.

The problem many people in the UK are seeing is that we are funding the EU but being taken for a ride by them!  When things get tough at home people don’t like this and start to ask questions of their MP’s and government (Hence David Cameron’s speech).  This is classic protectionism and quite right, why fund an organisation who waste our money and give it to other countries from which we obtain very little in return.  It has everything to do with political stability in the EU and keeping our fingers in the EU pot as well as having trading links.

I can understand the political argument, I don’t like the “You scratch my back and we’ll scratch yours when required” deals, but they happen.  The EU are a huge part of our trading links which makes them very important.

To the ordinary man and woman on the UK’s streets, I’m pretty sure they just see us funding the EU and being told how to live our lives by the EU!  If the perception deteriorates further over the years then the likely outcome of the vote in 2017 should be NO [we want OUT].  What could cause those events?……..

How is all this linked to Trading and Investing?

Well, it has everything to do with the TIMING.

I’m pretty sure, although I’m guessing that David Cameron has set the 2017 date because he thinks by then the whole country will be feeling better by way of improved economic conditions – this is SOCIONOMICS!

Now, I’ve studied market performance going back centuries and if the stock markets follow trends and cycles of the past, then this year 2013 for 3-4 years (2017) should result in a sideways to falling stock market over that 3-4 year period [expected NOT guaranteed, based on past cycles].

This takes us to the year 2017 and to the vote we have been promised on Europe.

If the above market cycle happens, then the UK public’s mood will not be very happy (as I think Mr. Cameron is banking/hoping on).  These periods of extreme stagnating and/or falling stock market performance will create severe anger within the UK and if this happens then I’d be very very surprised if the UK votes YES to joining Europe in the in/out vote.

So I am making a prediction, 4 years out, based solely upon a expected contracted stock market over the next 4 years, that in 2017 when we go to the polls to vote the UK public will vote NO to being in Europe.

If on the other hand I am completely wrong and from say 2015-2017 the stock market has been rising I’d expect the opposite result, as the politicians focus on the positive aspects of being part of the EU.

Yes I am making a prediction and yes I have a 50:50 chance of being right, but I’ve listed my reasons based solely on stock market action from 2013-2017 and especially the period 2015-2017.

If you removed the stock market out of the equation, then I have no idea what will happen – I need the stock market to form my prediction, search through my other Socionomic articles and you’ll see I was spot on for the re-election of President Obama in the USA elections of 2011 – even though the big banks were banking his rival.

Anyway this is one to refer back to over the years and especially in 2017, thought I’d get it in nice and early.

The Hovis Trader

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2 Comments

  1. Mark B

     /  January 26, 2013

    Good article, coming from a ‘trading’ perspective. But that, I am afraid, is the flaw. The EU is NOT about trade. It is, and always has been, about monetary, fiscal and political UNION – A supra-national state.

    Cameron is making this speech, not for the benefit of the UK, or the EU, but for his own political future. He needs to win back those that are leaving the Conservative party in droves. If the Conservatives do badly in the county and European elections, then he may not be around come 2015 for the GE.

    He has no intention of hold a referendum in 2017 or at any other point in time. He is fully committed to the EU and has said so. If you know what that truly is, then you wouldn’t want it, unless you wanted to be part of a Supra-national country.

    As the EU is our ‘true’ government, and that it make most of our laws, then might I suggest that you read and perhaps put a link too Dr. Richard North’s blog, EUReferendum. http://www.eureferendum.com/

    Reply
    • Hi Mark,

      Thanks for the comment and the link.

      Yep I fully agree with you, I understand Cameron’s reason for blowing the horn for re-election purposes and the Europe issue.

      The post I made was purely a prediction on the likely outcome based on what the stock market does in the couple of years run-up to a vote (If the vote occurs).

      My disgust at the political regime is one of the reasons I trade for a living – I can do so without contributing to the tax system, as I can’t bear to see my hard earned money wasted or handed over to the EU.

      Reply

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